Corn
Price action: December corn futures fell 5 cents to $4.14, nearer the session low and hit a two-week low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn market is bleeding again with December prices back near the contract low. Price-bearish weather and solid gains in the U.S. dollar index today more than offset some good news from a U.S-European Union trade deal reached over the weekend.
World Weather Inc. today said U.S. corn crop weather has been and will continue mostly good over the next ten days to two weeks. Brazil’s Safrinha corn is maturing and being harvested “and the environment has been quite good for those purposes. Some rain is expected over the next week to ten days that may disrupt farming activity periodically in the south. Argentina summer crop harvesting is also advancing around showers,” said World Weather.
USDA reported daily U.S. corn sales of 225,000 MT to Mexico during 2025-26, and 229,000 MT to unknown destinations—of that, 35,000 MT were for 2024-25 and 194,000 MT during 2025-26. USDA also reported weekly export inspections of 1.52 MMT for the week ended July 24, up 537,273 MT from the previous week and above the pre-report range of 700,000 MT to 1.4 MMT.
This afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports are expected to show the U.S. corn crop in 74% good to excellent condition as of Sunday, which would be the same as last week and compares to 68% in the same condition at the same time last year.
Technical analysis: The corn futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and gained more power today by pushing prices below support at last week’s low. Prices are in a 3.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $4.30 1/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the contract low of $4.07 1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.19 3/4 and then at $4.23. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.12 3/4 and then at $4.07 1/2.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 9 1/2 cents to $10.11 1/2, hit a two-week low and closed nearer the daily low. September soybean meal fell $2.80 to $269.40, near the daily low and hit a two-week low. September soybean oil rose 2 points to 56.27 cents, nearer the session high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean market saw selling pressure today from a strong U.S. dollar and very good growing conditions for most of the U.S. soybean crop, with more of the same in the forecast.
World Weather Inc. today said much of the Midwest saw a few more days of favorable conditions for crop development during the weekend. “Another two weeks of favorable conditions for crop development and very high production potentials are expected for the Midwest. Soil moisture is favorable in nearly all of the region and with regular rounds of rain expected into the middle of next week and with mild temperatures Wednesday through at least early next week, the soil should be moist enough to favorably support crop development deep into August.”
This afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports are expected to show the U.S. soybean crop in 68% good to excellent condition as of Sunday, which would be the same as last Sunday and compares with 67% in the same condition one year ago at the same time.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. soybean export inspections of 409,714 MT for the week ended July 24, up 32,694 MT from the previous week. Net inspections were near the upper end of the pre-report range of 200,000 to 450,000 MT.
Technical analysis: The soybean bears now have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at $10.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of $9.98 1/2. First resistance is seen at $10.20 and then at $10.30. First support is seen at $10.10 and then at $9.98 1/2.
Soybean meal bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in September futures above solid technical resistance at the July high of $285.40. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $268.70. First resistance comes in at $275.00 and then at $280.00. First support is seen at $268.70 and then at $265.00.
Bean oil bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a choppy, five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing September prices above solid technical resistance at 58.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 53.00 cents. First resistance is seen at the July high of 56.99 cents and then at 56.50 cents. First support is seen at 55.50 cents and then at 55.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 65% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 65% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat rose 1/2 cent to $5.58 3/4, nearer the daily high and hit a nine-week low early on. December HRW wheat lost 1 cent to $5.46 3/4, near mid-range. December spring wheat futures fell 3 cents to $6.03.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets held their own today, despite selling pressure in corn and soybean futures. The newly inked U.S.-European Union trade deal was a friendly development for the wheat markets, also giving traders confidence that more deals are coming before the Friday U.S.-imposed deadline for trade deals with other countries. Gains in wheat were limited today by strong gains in the U.S. dollar index.
World Weather Inc. today said wheat conditions in Canada “are a concern, with parts of the Prairies losing yield potential because of dryness. Some rain fell recently to improve a part of the crop, but production of wheat, barley and oats will be below normal.” U.S. wheat production weather has been favorable in the Midwest and northern Plains. Harvesting in the central Plains has advanced well. Dryness in the Pacific Northwest hurt dryland production this year while irrigated crops likely performed normally. Most of the winter wheat in Europe and Russia is being harvested and will not likely respond well to rain in the future. Production cuts for winter crops have not been as great as feared in Europe, said World Weather.
This afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports are expected to show U.S. spring wheat condition at 52% good to excellent as of Sunday, which would be the same as last week and compares to 74% in the same condition one year ago at the same time. Spring wheat harvested is seen at 2% complete as of Sunday, with winter wheat harvested expected to be 82% complete.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat export inspections of 288,793 MT for the week ended July 24, down 443,497 MT from the previous week and short of the pre-report range of 300,000 to 700,000 MT.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. However, there are stiff chart support levels that lie just below present prices. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.95. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.43 3/4. First resistance is seen at $5.66 and then at last week’s high of $5.72 3/4. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.52 1/4 and then at $5.43 3/4.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.75. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.25. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $5.58 3/4 and then at $5.61 1/2. First support is seen at the contract low of $5.38 and then at $5.30.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton rose 11 points to 68.34 cents, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton market continues to chop in a trading range but the bulls are working on a price uptrend on the daily chart. Gains in cotton were limited by a surge in the U.S. dollar index to start the trading week. Cotton traders are closely monitoring U.S.-China trade talks that are taking place this week in Stockholm, Sweden. Bulls are encouraged that a U.S.-China trade deal could come at some point, following the weekend news that the U.S. and European Union reached a trade deal.
Cotton traders will closely scrutinize this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports.
World Weather Inc. today said West Texas cotton areas still need greater rain and some additional warm weather to support the best dryland production. Other areas in Texas are seeing highly varying weather and soil conditions. “Timely rain will become increasingly more important as the next two weeks move along to ensure the best crop development and yield potential.” U.S. Delta crops are drying down, although it looks as though timely rain may evolve late this week into next week. The southeastern U.S. cotton areas in the nation are also expected to receive periodic rain, said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls are working on a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at the June high of 69.52 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the July low of 67.13 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 68.77 cents and then at the July high of 69.15 cents. First support is seen at 68.00 cents and then at 67.50 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 75% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 75% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.