Corn
Price action: May corn futures rose 1 cent to $4.36 3/4, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market paused today after Tuesday’s losses. A higher U.S. dollar index today limited the upside for corn. However, solid gains in crude oil futures prices today limited the downside.
USDA’s annual Agricultural Outlook Forum kicks off Thursday morning with an initial forecast of 2026 acreage. A Bloomberg poll shows analysts expect forecasted corn plantings at 95 million acres, on average.
World Weather Inc. today said dry weather in center-west and center-south Brazil during the past weekend and early this week was good for crops. Safrinha corn planting has also advanced well in this environment. Showers and thunderstorms should resume during the weekend and continue next week. Fieldwork will advance around the precipitation.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field amid recent choppy trading. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close May prices above solid chart resistance at $4.50. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the January low of $4.26 1/4. First resistance is seen at $4.40 and then at the February high of $4.43 3/4. First support is seen at last week’s low of $4.34 and then at $4.30.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 40% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 40% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: May soybeans rose 1/4 cent to $11.49, near mid-range after hitting a three-month high early on. May soybean meal fell $2.30 to $308.50, nearer the session low. May soybean oil gained 132 points to 59.08, nearer the daily high and hit a contract high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean futures bulls were out of the gate strong overnight, but faded in the day session as the bulls now appear to be near-term exhausted. Spreaders were featured selling meal and buying bean oil.
The EPA is expected to submit proposed biofuel blending quotas for 2026 to the White House this week for final review, according to Reuters, which cited sources familiar with the matter.
A Bloomberg poll shows analysts expect USDA to forecast 85 million U.S. planted acres, on average, at its annual Agriculture Outlook Forum that kicks off Thursday morning.
World Weather Inc. today said Paraguay and southern Brazil will see additional rain into the middle of next week that will result in beneficial increases in soil moisture for developing crops, while fieldwork is interrupted before Feb. 26-Mar. 4 is dry most often and fieldwork increases. Rain into the middle of next week should leave the soil moist enough to support developing crops into at least early March. Much of the remainder of Brazil will see regular rounds of rain and favorable conditions for crop development through the next two weeks while fieldwork is slowed. In Argentina, regular rounds of rain will occur into Sunday from San Luis, Cordoba, and northern La Pampa to Entre Rios, Corrientes, Chaco, and Santiago del Estero, where crops in the many areas with marginal to short soil moisture will benefit from the moisture while fieldwork is slowed. Meanwhile, the remainder of La Pampa into Buenos Aires will miss much of the rain and stress to crops should soon rise again as moisture from rain during the past weekend is lost to evaporation.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing May prices above solid resistance at the November high of $11.77 3/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $11.59 and then at $11.68. First support is seen at $11.37 and then at $11.25.
Soybean meal bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but need to show fresh power soon to keep it. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in May futures above solid technical resistance at $320.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of $292.70. First resistance comes in at $311.00 and then at last week’s high of $314.80. First support is seen at $305.00 and then at $302.00.
Bean oil bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing May prices above solid technical resistance at 61.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 55.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s contract high of 59.45 cents and then at 60.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 57.88 cents and then at this week’s low of 57.14 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 50% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 50% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: May SRW rose 10 cents to $5.52 1/2, near the daily high. May HRW rose 11 1/4 cents to $5.61 3/4, near the daily high. May spring wheat futures rose 5 3/4 cents to $5.74, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets today saw technical buying interest amid price uptrends in place on the daily bar charts.
A Bloomberg poll shows analysts expect USDA to forecast U.S. wheat acres at 44.7 million acres at its Agricultural Outlook Forum, which kicks off on Thursday morning.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, a couple of minor areas of snow will move across parts of the region Thursday through Friday. This shouldn’t be enough to have much of an effect on soil moisture. Temperatures will be trending colder in the next couple of days and will be below average Friday through Sunday before unusual warmth returns. Subzero morning low temperatures are a possibility in northwestern production areas of Nebraska Friday, but likely only where there is snow on the ground. In the Northern Plains, occasional snow in the next seven days will occur mostly in northeastern production areas, with today’s snow involving the continuation of a major snowstorm in northern Minnesota and in North Dakota. The snowpack is becoming deep in the northeastern part of the region and this may lead to some flooding from the Red River when it melts in March and April. A majority of the region should be protected from subzero temperatures this week, though a close monitoring of the snow cover distribution is warranted.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends in place on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at the November high of $5.76 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the January low of $5.13 1/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.52 3/4 and then at last week’s high of $5.58 3/4. First support is seen at this week’s low of $5.38 3/4 and then at $5.25.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at $5.80. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.25. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $5.66 3/4 and then at $5.75. First support is seen at this week’s low of $5.45 3/4 and then at last week’s low of $5.37 3/4.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: May cotton rose 12 points to 63.76 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market today saw mild short covering. Solidly higher crude oil prices today also supported some buying interest, but a firmer U.S. dollar index limited the upside for cotton futures.
Cotton traders are awaiting the kick off for USDA’s annual Ag Outlook Conference Thursday morning, which includes fresh supply and demand data for cotton. A Bloomberg survey of analysts showed that, on average, they look for USDA to peg U.S. cotton acres at 9.2 million, U.S. cotton production at 13.5 million bales, and U.S. ending stocks at 4.2 million bales.
World Weather Inc. today said south Texas and northeastern Mexico need rain to support planting in early March and a dry bias will prevail for at least another 10 days. West Texas also needs rain and not much will fall for a while. California cotton areas will experience a more frequent rain pattern for a while in this coming week while showers in the southwestern desert region are more limited. Light rain fell in the U.S. southeastern states during the weekend improving topsoil moisture for use in the spring. Dryness remains in the region’s subsoil and much more rain is needed to break drought conditions. Meantime, weekend rain in Queensland, Australia was welcome and should have improved some crops in the region; however, some of the rain has come a little late in the summer for the best improvement in production potentials. Sufficient rain in both New South Wales and Queensland in the past week has improved short-term crop development potential. Dry conditions will now prevail for a while. Late-season cotton in southern India should be mostly harvested. Any showers that occur in the next 10 days will fail to produce enough rain to threaten unharvested crop quality.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in May futures above technical resistance at 66.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 62.50 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 64.50 cents and then at 65.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 63.41 cents and then at the contract low of 62.86 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 20% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 20% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.