Corn
Price action: July corn fell 1/4 cent to $4.63 1/2, near mid-range and for the week up 6 cents.
5-day outlook: Corn futures bulls had a decent week as prices are now trending up on the daily bar chart. Mild profit-taking from the shorter-term speculators was featured today. Traders will keep watching the weekly USDA crop progress reports on Monday afternoons. In today’s news, President Trump granted a 90-day extension to the Jones Act, an effort to move oil, fuel and fertilizer around the U.S., which is the latest effort to curb rising energy costs. Europe is set to lose corn plantings this year as elevated fertilizer and energy costs discourage farmers as they plant spring crops, according to Reuters.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said the Midwest should see good planting progress overall during the next two weeks with two rounds of well-organized rain that will temporarily slow planting while maintaining moist soils in much of the region and improving soil moisture in the drier areas from eastern Nebraska to southeastern South Dakota and southwestern Minnesota. A close watch will be made on a surge of cold air expected to impact the region late next week into the following weekend as there is some potential for frost and freezes expand from the northwestern Corn Belt to the Great Lakes region. Fieldwork will likely need to be delayed into early May before farmers contemplate switching to soybeans due to late planting.
90-day outlook: History shows odds are good that the next three months will see some degree of a weather-market scare in the corn and soybean markets—even though the past two years have not seen a significant summertime weather market. Three years in a row without a weather market in corn and beans seems unlikely, judging by price history dating back over 50 years.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans rose 3 3/4 cents to $11.78 1/2, near the daily high and for the week down 4 1/2 cents. July soybean meal rose $2.60 to $319.10, nearer the daily high and for the week down $8.10. July bean oil gained 28 points to 71.33 cents, near midrange and for the week up 342 points.
5-day outlook: The soybean market showed some bullish promise at mid-week as prices pushed to a five-week high and above the recent trading range. However, to close out the week, soybean prices are right back in the middle of a choppy and sideways trading range. Soybean planting progress will be tracked by USDA in its weekly crop progress report Monday.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said planting in the U.S. will slow down in the heart of the Midwest and Delta next week because of more frequent and significant rain and cooler temperatures. Drought in the southeastern states will remain, although some scattered showers are possible next week. The summit meeting between Presidents Trump and China’s Xi Jinping in mid-May will likely be the major event of the month of May for the soybean market. Recent U.S. China relations have been up and down, but generally more upbeat than in months past.
90-day outlook: The rising soybean oil market prices remain overall supportive to the soy complex amid elevated crude oil prices. Ideas among crude oil traders are that crude prices will remain elevated even in the months after the war ends. This will at the least limit the downside in bean oil prices as interest turns more to biofuels with gasoline and diesel prices much higher than what was seen six months ago.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $11.60 strike November puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW wheat fell 3 1/2 cents to $6.16 3/4, near mid-range after hitting a three-week high overnight. For the week, July SRW was up 17 1/2 cents. July HRW wheat lost 9 1/2 cents to $6.69 3/4, nearer the daily low after hitting a nearly two-year high in the overnight trade. For the week, July HRW was up 19 3/4 cents. July spring wheat futures were up 1 3/4 cents to $6.93 1/4, nearer the daily high, and for the week up 23 cents.
5-day outlook: The winter wheat futures market saw some routine profit-taking pressure to end the trading week. Selling pressure was also spurred by forecasts for needed rain in U.S. HRW country. It was still a good week for the bulls, with price uptrends still in place on the daily bar charts. That suggests the chart-based speculators will be interested in playing the long sides next week. In today’s news, India’s 2026 wheat output was seen at 110.65 MMT, below the government record estimate of 120.21 MMT, according to the country’s flour miller’s body earlier today.
HRW wheat remains in a weather market. World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, rain in the next seven days will see improvement for the region. Initially, the shower and thunderstorm activity will be mostly focused in eastern and northern production areas. However, a storm system late next week into the following weekend has potential to take a track far-enough south to provide central and southwestern crop areas with some needed rainfall as well. Confidence is still a little low for how significant the rain will be in the southwest, but the potential is there for at least some improvement. Temperatures will also be trending cooler which will lower evaporation rates. In the Northern Plains, precipitation in the next seven days is likely to occur mostly in southeastern production areas and involve rain and a little wet snow. Recent precipitation has been good for boosting topsoil moisture in areas that needed it in the west and the new moisture in the southeast will be beneficial as well. Unusually cold weather could still delay early season fieldwork and crop development.
30-day outlook: U.S. wheat exports have been relatively good for this time of year, which typically sees lower volumes of wheat shipped. Hard red spring wheat planting continues to progress in line with historical averages, with the crop at 2% emerged this week. Higher protein wheat in general will likely be at a premium if poor production is realized in the HRW crop. The new-crop contract scored an impressive close above the $7 mark on Thursday.
90-day outlook: Uncertainty remains around exact weather impacts, and abandonment rates are likely to be high this year. As the crop progresses damage from the recent freeze in the Plains will be more easily identifiable. The U.S. dollar index rebounded this week, after hitting a six-week low last week. Further appreciation in the USDX in the coming months could dent global demand for U.S. wheat, as it would become more expensive in non-U.S. currencies on the world trade markets.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton futures fell 9 points to 79.36 cents, nearer the session high and for the week down 46 points.
5-day outlook: The cotton futures market suffered a technically bearish key reversal down on the daily bar chart Wednesday, but the bulls were able to stabilize prices to end the trading week. Trading early next week will be extra important. A close back above 80.00 cents in July cotton would put the bulls right back in business. Risk appetite in the general marketplace on a daily basis will continue to impact the cotton market, as will crude oil prices.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said today’s forecast is wetter for next Wednesday into Thursday in western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma than what was advertised earlier this week and if the outlook verifies, much of the region will receive enough rain to temporarily boost soil moisture. A drier weather pattern will occur May 1-8 and much of the moisture from next week’s rain will be lost to evaporation before planting occurs. The Blacklands will see occasional rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the next two weeks that should bring enough rain to improve soil moisture and conditions for cotton germination, establishment, and development while rain is infrequent and mostly light in south Texas and the Coastal Bend.
90-day outlook: Improving U.S.-China trade relations in recent months could be a bullish element on the U.S. cotton export demand front in the coming months. Presidents Trump and Xi are scheduled to meet in China in mid-May. Xi is expected to visit the U.S. later this year. Still-elevated crude oil prices have also been a bullish driver, pushing cotton back into the spotlight over polyester for spindle share. However, the cotton market and its recent big price rally is now a “tired trade” for anyone still holding bullish long-side aspirations.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 90% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You are 40% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time
Cash-only marketers: You are 90% sold on 2025-crop. You are 40% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.