Corn
Price action: March corn futures fell 1 3/4 cent to $4.20 1/4, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw some more technical selling pressure today as buying interest is limited by a bearish chart posture and by this week’s dour USDA supply and demand data. Sharply lower crude oil prices today also helped to pressure corn.
The Trump administration plans to finalize 2026 biofuel blending quotes by early March, keeping them close to its initial proposal while simultaneously dropping a plan to penalize imports of renewable fuels and feedstocks, according to Reuters.
USDA reported weekly U.S. corn export sales of 1.14 MMT for the week ended Jan. 8, which rose notably from the previous week but declined 10% from the four-week average. Net sales were within the pre-report range of 600,000 MT to 1.4 MMT.
The International Grains Council (IGC) increased its 2025-26 corn crop outlook by 15 MMT to 1.313 billion tons.
Trading action Friday will be extra important for corn futures. A close on Friday near the weekly low would be ominously bearish for the market. However, a close in March corn well above the weekly low would begin to suggest a near-term market bottom is in place.
World Weather Inc. today said some rain in La Pampa and western and southern Buenos Aires the past two days was welcome and brought temporary relief to dryness. Additional rain must fall throughout southern Argentina to stop crop stress and the potential decline in yield. Some additional showers are possible Thursday and again during the weekend, although resulting rainfall should be restricted. Additional opportunities for rain are advertised for Jan. 21-28. All other Argentina crops are in good condition with timely rain to continue. Brazil crops are rated well and should continue performing favorably because of a good mix of rain and sunshine over the next two weeks. A few drier pockets are unlikely to have a big impact on production potential. The northeastern states will be most closely monitored for dryness later this month.
Technical analysis: Corn bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A bear flag or bearish pennant pattern appears to be forming on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close March prices above solid chart resistance at $4.35. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the contract low of $4.10. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.25 and then at $4.30. First support is seen at this week’s low of $4.17 1/4 and then at $4.10.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: March soybeans rose 10 1/2 cents to $10.53, nearer the daily high. March soybean meal fell $2.80 to $289.10, near the daily low and hit a nearly two-month low. March soybean oil gained 199 points to 52.87 cents, near the daily high and hit a four-week high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and bean oil futures saw more covering today. Spreaders were featured buying bean oil and selling meal futures.
U.S. soybean crush rose in December to the second-highest monthly level on record, while soyoil stocks rose to a 19-month high, according to the monthly NOPA report. NOPA members processed 224.991 million bu. of soybeans last month, up 4.1% from 216.041 million bushels in November and up 8.9% from the December 2024 crush of 206.604 million bushels.
USDA reported weekly U.S. soybean export sales totaled 2.06 MMT during the week ended Jan. 8, up noticeably from the previous week and 54% from the four-week average. Net sales were a record for the week and well above the expected pre-report range of 800,000 MT to 1.8 MMT.
Conab projected a record soybean crop of 176,12 MMT for the 2025-26 marketing season earlier this morning, which would be a 2.7% increase from the previous crop if realized.
World Weather Inc. today said most crops in Brazil and Paraguay will see regular rounds of rain during the next two weeks that will maintain favorable soil moisture for crop development. The driest areas in northeastern Brazil will see little rain through Saturday and stress to crop may increase in eastern Bahia where soil moisture is mostly short before regular rounds of showers Sunday into next week induce some improvements in soil and crop conditions. Southern Brazil will see the least rain overall during the next two weeks, but with some rain expected and favorable soil moisture in place today, crop development should occur in a mostly favorable environment through the period. In Argentina, the driest areas in southern Argentina will benefit from regular rounds of showers through the next two weeks and although much of the rain is not likely to be heavy, enough rain should fall to prevent significant declines in crop and soil conditions and many areas should see net improvements in crop conditions during the period. Favorable soil moisture in place today in central and northern Argentina and occasional rain during the next two weeks should maintain mostly favorable conditions for crop development through the period.
Technical analysis: The soybean bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing March prices above solid resistance at this week’s high of $10.71 1/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of $10.28 1/2. First resistance is seen at $10.60 and then at this week’s high of $10.71 1/4. First support is seen at this week’s low of $10.37 3/4 and then at $10.28 1/2.
Soybean meal bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in March futures above solid technical resistance at $306.90. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of $282.10. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $294.50 and then at $298.20. First support is seen at $289.00 and then at $285.00.
Bean oil bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and gained fresh power today as prices are trending up on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing March prices above solid technical resistance at the December high of 53.38 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the December low of 48.05 cents. First resistance is seen at 53.38 cents and then at 54.00 cents. First support is seen at 52.00 cents and then at 51.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 30% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 30% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: March SRW fell 2 cents to $5.10 1/2 and near the session low. March HRW fell 5 cents to $5.17 1/4 and near the daily low. March spring wheat futures fell 4 1/2 cents to $5.62 1/2.
Fundamental analysis: The HRW futures markets saw some technical selling late today, with sharp losses in the crude oil market aiding the wheat bears. Look for the winter wheat futures markets to take daily price direction from the corn market for the near term.
USDA today reported weekly U.S. wheat export sales totaled 156,300 MT during the week ended Jan. 8, up 32% from the previous week, but down 21% from the four-week average. Net sales were within the expected range of 100,000 to 450,000 MT.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country a dry-biased weather pattern will continue through the next seven days. The temperature pattern will be variable, which could stress some livestock. Cooling in the next two weeks will likely be greatest Jan. 23-25. Strong winds will occur Friday with some gusts as high as 55 to 70 mph. Blowing dust is expected and this may lead to a dust storm in some areas, especially central and northwestern areas. In the Northern Plains, strong wind speeds in the western half of the region today into Friday could cause travel delays and some power outages. Some wind gusts will be as high as 55 to 65 mph. Periods of snow and blowing snow in the next seven days will occur mostly in central and eastern production areas. Some concern remains for impressive bitter cold air in the second week of the outlook that may stress livestock more significantly and could raise a threat to winter wheat due to the lack of significant snow on the ground. Some snow is likely before the coldest air arrives, but a close monitoring of the forecast will still be warranted. Temperatures could drop below zero Fahrenheit in some lightly snow-covered areas of the western Dakotas this Saturday morning after tonight’s snow shower activity.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage but trading has turned choppy and sideways at lower levels. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the December high of $5.44 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at $5.20 and then at this week’s high of $5.28. First support is seen at this week’s low of $5.07 and then at the contract low of $5.01 1/2.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at today’s high of $5.44 3/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $4.98 3/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.28 and then at $5.36. First support is seen at this week’s low of $5.16 and then at $5.08 1/4.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton fell 28 points to 64.71 cents, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures saw selling pressure today amid sharply lower crude oil prices. Lower grain futures prices today also aided the cotton bears.
USDA today reported weekly U.S. cotton export sales of 339,700 RB for 2025/2026--a marketing-year high--were up noticeably from the previous week and up 89 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Vietnam, China (57,200 RB), Pakistan and Indonesia. Net sales of 10,100 RB for 2026/2027 were reported for Costa Rica (7,200 RB) and El Salvador (2,600 RB). Exports of 156,100 RB were up 1 percent from the previous week and 8 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (56,200 RB), Pakistan (24,900 RB), China (18,200 RB) and Turkey (13,500 RB).
World Weather Inc. today said precipitation is needed in most of Texas and from Florida and southeastern Alabama to the Carolinas and Virginia. Additional moisture would also be good for Arizona and southern California, but precipitation may be restricted for a while in the next 10 days. Late-season cotton in southern India continues to fill, mature and be harvested. Any showers that occur in the next ten days will fail to produce enough rain to threaten unharvested crop quality. Australia’s cotton crop would benefit greatly from rain especially in western unirrigated areas where dryness is still a concern. Irrigated crops should be performing well as are some of the dryland crops produced in the east. Not much change in weather or crop conditions is likely for a while. Production is expected to be reduced by a cut in area planted and by poor rainfall in dryland production areas of the west. Argentina planting conditions were not ideal this season; though, recent weather has improved much of the crop. Timely rainfall and warm temperatures should dominate the next ten days.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. However, the bulls are working on keeping alive price uptrend on the daily bar chart. They need to show more power soon to do so. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in March futures above technical resistance at 67.50 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of 63.68 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 65.25 cents and then at the January high of 65.76 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 64.47 cents and then at 64.26 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 20% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 20% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.