Corn
Price action: December corn futures fell 3 cents to $4.10 3/4, near the daily low, at a contract low close, and for the week down 8 1/4 cents.
5-day outlook: Today’s lower trading action in corn futures, with a technically bearish close at the weekly low price, sets the market up for follow-through selling from the speculators early next week, including a challenge of important technical support at the contract low of $4.07 1/2 in December corn. If that level is breached, the speculative bears will likely be piling on the sell side in an attempt to push December corn below major psychological support at the $4.00 level.
30-day outlook: The risk aversion in the general marketplace today, due to the new U.S. trade tariffs kicking in, limited buying interest in the grain futures markets and will likely continue to do so if risk appetite remains squelched. New U.S. trade deals, or an escalation in U.S. trade tariffs and threats of such, will be a critical element for grain traders to examine in the coming weeks.
90-day outlook: World Weather Inc. late this week said the month of August likely will not produce crop-threatening conditions and that soil moisture levels should remain adequate until at least late in the month. We know weather conditions in the Corn Belt can change quickly in late summer, but the corn crop will be looking like a bin-buster down the stretch.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans closed steady at $9.89 1/4, nearer the session low and hit a 3.5-month low early on. For the week, November beans lost 31 3/4 cents. September meal futures rose $5.00 to $270.90, near the daily high and closed at a bullish weekly high close. For the week, September meal lost $1.30. September soybean oil futures fell 79 points to 54.48 cents, nearer the daily low and hit a three-week low. For the week, September bean oil fell 177 points.
5-day forecast: The feature in the soybean complex futures late this week has been the rally in soybean meal and the sell off in soybean oil, much of which is likely spreaders unwinding long bean oil, short meal spreads that were previously established. This is an important development, as it begins to suggest soybean meal has found a price bottom. If meal futures prices stabilize and start to trend up, soybeans will likely do the same.
World Weather Inc. today said U.S. soybean crop weather has been and will continue mostly good over the next 10 days to two weeks. Cooler temperatures will slow drying rates and that may lead to greater concern about excessive moisture in a few areas. However, less rain and warmer temperatures later in August should improve those crop conditions, said the forecaster.
30-day outlook: Veteran soybean market analysts say the most critical growing month for most of the U.S. soybean crop is August. World Weather Inc. late this week said growing conditions should remain very good deep into August. That suggests the bulls have their work cut out for them in the coming weeks.
90-day outlook: USDA Thursday reported weekly U.S. soybean export sales of 349,200 MT for 2024-25, up noticeably from the previous week and up 4% from the four-week average. Net bean sales for 2025-26 totaled 429,500 MT. The sales were better than market expectations. Any progress on a U.S.-China trade deal being reached would likely provide a decent boost to soybean prices, on hopes of stronger demand coming from the world’s second-largest economy.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 65% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 65% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat futures fell 5 1/2 cents to $5.37, near the daily low and hit a contract low. For the week, December SRW lost 21 1/4 cents. December HRW wheat fell 6 1/4 cents to $5.38 1/2, nearer the daily low and closed at a contract low close. On the week, December HRW fell 9 1/4 cents. December spring wheat futures fell 4 1/2 cents to $5.96 3/4 and gave up 9 1/4 cents on the week.
5-day outlook: Today’s technically bearish weekly low closes in the winter wheat futures markets set the stage for follow-through, chart-based selling from the speculators early next week. Wheat traders will be looking at daily price action in the corn and soybean futures markets in the near term, to help guide their own markets’ price action.
World Weather Inc. today reports wheat conditions in Canada “remain a concern with parts of the eastern Prairies losing yield potential because of dryness.” Some rain fell recently to improve a part of the crop, but production of wheat, barley and oats will be below normal, especially from the east. Meantime, U.S. wheat production has been favorable in the Midwest and northern Plains. Harvesting in the central Plains has advanced well. Dryness in the Pacific Northwest hurt dryland production this year while irrigated crops likely performed normally, said the forecaster.
30-day outlook: U.S. winter wheat harvest will be winding down in the coming weeks, which means less commercial hedging pressure on futures prices. New trade deals between the U.S. and other countries, including China, will be major fundamental elements that will be monitored by wheat traders in the coming weeks.
90-day outlook: Other macro-economics that are likely to play a significant role in wheat markets’ price trends in the next few months include the health of the U.S. economy, which has an impact on trader/investor risk appetite that in turn determines how speculators play the grain markets. If the stock and financial markets start to wobble this fall, which they have had a tendency to do in recent years, then grain market bears will likely become more active on the sell side in wheat futures. Today’s much-weaker-than-expected U.S jobs report is a shot across the bow of the entire marketplace that the U.S. economy may not be as healthy as many were reckoning to be the case.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures fell 89 points to 66.36 cents today, near the daily low and closed at a four-month-low close. On the week, December cotton lost 198 points.
5-day outlook: This week’s downdraft in the cotton futures market, including today’s technically bearish weekly low close, has emboldened the speculative, chart-based traders who are likely to continue to press the downside early next week. The key technical point for December cotton is the June low of 66.27 cents, which is in striking distance and if breached on the downside would likely trigger pre-placed sell stop orders to push prices even farther south.
30-day outlook: Weather in U.S. cotton country will continue to be closely monitored in the coming weeks, as the growing season progresses. West Texas cotton areas still need greater rain and some additional warm weather to support the best dryland production, said World Weather Inc. today. Other areas in Texas are seeing highly varying weather and soil conditions. “Timely rain will become increasingly more important the next two weeks to ensure the best crop development and yield potential.” U.S. Delta crops are drying down, although it looks as though timely rain may evolve late this week into next week. The southeastern U.S. cotton areas in the nation are also expected to receive periodic rain.
90-day outlook: Today’s U.S. jobs report sent a warning signal to the marketplace that the U.S. economy may be on more shaky ground than most thought. That’s bearish for cotton from a consumer apparel demand perspective. However, today’s jobs data raised the odds to 75% for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut at the September FOMC meeting. Lower U.S. interest rates would significantly improve consumer sentiment and that’s price-friendly for cotton.
What to do: Finish 2024-crop sales. Today marks the end of the 2024-25 marketing year for cotton. We advise cotton hedgers and cash-only marketers to sell the final 25% of 2024-crop production to get to 100% sold. New-crop sales will wait for an extended rally.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.