Corn
Price action: July corn rose 2 cents to $4.63, a four-week high close.
Fundamental analysis: Nearby corn futures extended gains for the fourth straight session, though spillover weakness from wheat along with technical pressure and a firmer U.S. dollar capped gains. USDA’s weekly export sales data, released early this morning, showed notable old-crop sales of 1.19 MMT during the week ended May 15, though sales did decline 29% from the previous week and 14% from the four-week average. Marketing-year to date, corn export sales are outpacing the seasonal pace to achieve USDA’s target by 166 million bushels, up from 149 million bushels the previous week as demand continues to remain quite robust. Meanwhile, new crop sales for the week totaled 218,200 MT, while exports rose 13% on the week to 1.59 MMT.
In South America, drier areas of Brazil are expected to receive some moisture, which should aid late-planted safrinha corn production areas, which would prove timely as the crop progresses through the reproductive phase of development, possibly helping to bolster crop yields, according to World Weather Inc.
Technical analysis: July corn futures notched a close above the 200-day moving average of $4.61 3/4 as bulls work to regain the technical advantage. The camp will work to secure a close above resistance at $4.70, with first resistance serving at $4.65, which is blacked by the 40-day moving average of $4.68 1/4. Conversely, bears will continue to look toward taking out the May low of $4.36 1/2, though support is layered at the 20- and 10-day moving averages of $4.58 1/4 and $4.50 1/2.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans closed 4 3/4 cents higher at $10.67 1/2 and closed nearer session highs. July meal climbed $4.4 to $298.5. July bean oil slid 72 points to 49.11 cents.
Fundamental analysis: Soybeans saw action on either side of unchanged today but led strength towards the end of the session. Talk surrounding biofuels has garnered a lot of attention the past week. Last week, trade was dominated by reports that EPA would have lower RVO obligations than anticipated, but there has been a lot of pushback on that front. EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin told senators Wednesday that a proposal setting 2026 Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) volumes — and likely volumes for additional years — is nearing release. The proposed rule is under review by the White House Office of Management and Budget, the final step before publication. Zeldin said EPA is targeting a “much, much faster” timeline than summer or fall. This will give official guidance on what production rates will look like in the coming years. Soyoil has struggled to make up a lot of the weakness seen last week, so key will be how soyoil responds once the RFS volumes are released.
Rain fell from eastern North Dakota and nearby South Dakota to Michigan and Ohio Wednesday while temps remained unseasonably cold in the Midwest, with frost and some freezes this morning from central and northern Minnesota to northern Wisconsin, says World Weather Inc. A drier pattern is expected through the next ten days and moist soils in the Midwest will continue to support crop development despite cooler temps, the forecaster says.
USDA reported net soybean sales of 307,900 MT for the week ended May 15, up 9% from the previous week but down 10% from the four-week average. Net sales exceeded pre-report expectations of 100,000 to 300,000 MT. Net sales for 2025-26 totaled 15,000 MT. Soybean sales have slowed in recent weeks but that is normal seasonally.
Technical analysis: July soybeans closed higher for the fourth consecutive session as bulls continue to maintain the near-term technical advantage. Bulls managed to close prices back above the 200-day moving average at $10.65 1/4, marking that as initial support. Selling below that mark targets support at $10.58 1/2, then $10.50. Additional strength targets resistance at last week’s for-the-move high close of $10.77 3/4.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 65% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 65% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW wheat fell 4 3/4 cents to $5.44 1/2, near mid-range. July HRW wheat fell 1/2 cent to $5.40, near mid-range. July spring wheat futures slid 4 cents to $6.00 1/4.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets today saw routine corrective pullbacks and mild profit-taking pressure after recent impressive price gains. A higher U.S. dollar index, weaker crude oil prices and some risk aversion in the general marketplace today also limited buying interest in the wheat markets.
USDA reported old-crop U.S. wheat export sales reductions of 13,400 MT for the week ended May 15. However, net sales for 2025-26 were strong at 882,200 MT, exceeding market expectations of 300,000 to 700,000 MT.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, rainfall in the next seven days “will be significant in southeastern production areas, such as central Oklahoma, and light enough for net drying in areas from the Texas Panhandle up into southwestern Kansas. The rain in central Oklahoma may be enough to once again raise concerns of fieldwork delays and wet weather disease. However, a few days of dry weather next week after this event should help keep these concerns low.” Temperatures will be cool enough for long enough to also keep concerns of dryness in the southwest low for now, but more rain will be needed in the near future for spring and summer crops. In the northern Plains, rain shower activity in the next seven days won’t be much. However, below average temperatures will keep evaporation rates low, too. Warmer weather in the second week of the outlook will be nearly ideal for improved fieldwork conditions and for promoting more aggressive crop development, said World Weather.
Technical analysis: Recent price action suggests market bottoms are in place in the winter wheat futures. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at the April high of $5.71. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.20. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.52 and then at this week’s high of $5.56 1/4. First support is seen at $5.40 and then at $5.30.HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at $5.60. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of $5.16. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $5.47 3/4 and then at $5.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.32 1/2 and then at $5.25.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Be prepared to make additional 2025-crop and initial 2026-crop sales when the rally shows signs of stalling.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop production. You should be 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop production. You should be 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton slid 44 points to 65.63 cents, closing near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw followthrough selling pressure today despite a renewed sense of optimism in the marketplace. After seeing heavy selling pressure yesterday, the stock market rebounded today and saw modest strength, which was not reciprocated in cotton futures. Export sales were pretty disappointing again this week and export shipments have recently slowed. China did purchase a relatively small amount of U.S. cotton this week, which was good to see. USDA reported cotton sales totaling 151,100 bales for the week ended May 15. That was up 19% from the previous week and 34% from the four-week average. While sales have picked up in the past couple of weeks, shipments have begun to fall, which is in line with seasonal for this time of year. It would take a lot to negate the recent downtrend and to shift momentum for the bulls. Even with plantings running behind schedule, it still seems optimistic to assume the balance sheet will see any type of significant reduction with this year’s crop, which has kept prices under pressure.
Technical analysis: July cotton futures continue to see relative weakness as bears maintain the near-term technical advantage. Bears defended resistance at the 10-day moving average at 66.01 cents, which is reinforced by resistance at 66.38 cents, then 66.82 cents. Bulls are seeking to hold support at today’s low of 65.27 cents then 64.75 cents on continued selling pressure.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.