Corn
Price action: December corn futures rose 2 3/4 cents to $3.97 1/4, nearer the session high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn bulls today worked to stabilize prices following Tuesday’s surprisingly bearish USDA report. Tuesday’s big downdraft was possibly a capitulation-type price move that would suggest a market bottom is in place or close at hand. However, price action the rest of this week will be telling for the corn market. If the corn bulls can continue to work prices higher from Tuesday’s contract low into Friday’s close, such would be one clue that a market bottom is in place. However, a close near the weekly low in December corn on Friday would suggest more bleeding to come.
World Weather Inc. today said there is very little concern about Corn Belt weather reducing corn production potential amid favorable soil moisture in the Midwest. “There will be some net drying in the lower eastern Midwest and a few areas in the Delta and Tennessee River Basin. However, the impact on production potential will be minimal – at least for now,” said the forecaster.
Thursday’s weekly USDA export sales report is expected to show U.S. corn export sales of 150,000 to 600,000 MT in the 2024-25 marketing year, and sales of 900,000 to 2.4 million MT in the 2025-26 marketing year.
Technical analysis: The corn futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $4.11. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $3.75. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $3.98 1/2 and then at $4.00. First support is seen at the contract low of $3.92 and then at $3.90.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Advice Alert: We advise soybean hedgers and cash-only marketers to sell 15% of 2024-crop production to get to 90% priced. We also advise sales of 10% of expected new-crop production to get to 20% priced.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans rose 11 1/2 cents to $10.44 1/4, nearer the session high and hit a six-week high. September soybean meal rose $5.60 to $287.00, near the daily high and closed at a six-week high close. September soybean oil rose 15 points to 53.39 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean futures market saw some important follow-through buying interest today, following Tuesday’s solid gains. That suggests there is some underlying strength in the market. Soybean meal futures are now performing better, too, which is a positive clue for the soy complex.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Tuesday that U.S. trade officials will reconvene with their Chinese counterparts within two to three months to discuss the future of bilateral trade between the world’s two largest economies. His comments followed this week’s extension of a 90-day tariff truce between the two nations, which temporarily averts more duties on each other’s goods. Rallies in Chinese stock indexes recently suggest the Chinese are upbeat regarding a U.S.-China trade deal being successfully completed.
World Weather Inc. today said the Midwest will see another two weeks of favorable conditions for good crop development, with drier weather seen for Aug. 21-27. Regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms will occur through the middle of next week. “Many areas that have recently dried down will see a bolstering of soil moisture with nearly all of the region left with enough subsoil moisture to support crop development through the end of the month.” A close watch will be made on rain into Sunday into next Wednesday from east-central and southeastern Missouri to western Kentucky where topsoil moisture is short and rain will be needed before crops reach maturity. Warmer- to much-warmer than normal temperatures will be most common in the Midwest through the next week with widespread, excessive heat not expected through the period.
Thursday’s weekly USDA export sales report is expected to show U.S. soybean export sales of 200,000 to 700,000 MT in the 2024-25 marketing year, and sales of 400,000 to 900,000 MT in the 2025-26 marketing year.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage and have momentum on their side. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at the June high of $10.74 1/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $10.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $10.47 1/4 and then at $10.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $10.28 and then at $10.20.
Soybean meal bulls have gained momentum to suggest a market bottom is in place. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in September futures above solid technical resistance at $300.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $270.00. First resistance comes in at this week’s high of $287.50 and then at $290.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $280.20 and then at this week’s low of $275.60.
Bean oil bulls have lost their overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are starting to trend down on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing September prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of 57.64 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 50.91 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 53.94 cents and then at last week’s high of 54.94 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 52.05 cents and then at 51.50 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: NEW ADVICE: You should be 90% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 90% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat rose 2 1/4 cents to $5.28 1/4, nearer the daily high and poked to a contract low early on. December HRW wheat fell 2 cents to $5.28, nearer the session low. December HRS was unchanged at $5.95.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets are languishing at lower price levels, as wheat traders are being negatively impacted by the slumping corn futures market. However, good gains in soybean futures the past two sessions have limited selling interest in wheat futures markets.
World Weather Inc. today said rain in Saskatchewan and Manitoba recently “has come too late for a big improvement in wheat production, although a few crops that were not drought stressed certainly benefited.” Ontario and Quebec production has been good this year and drying conditions under way now are good for maturing the crop and supporting its harvest. U.S. wheat weather has been favorable in the Midwest and northern Plains. Harvesting in the central Plains is virtually complete and it is just beginning in the northern Plains. Dryness in the Pacific Northwest hurt dryland production this year while irrigated crops likely performed normally.
Thursday’s weekly USDA export sales report is expected to show U.S. wheat export sales of 400,000 to 850,000 MT in the 2025-26 marketing year.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.60. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $5.42 3/4 and then at $5.50. First support is seen at today’s contract low of $5.23 1/4 and then at $5.15.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.60. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at $5.35 and then at last week’s high of $5.44 3/4. First support is seen at the contract low of $5.24 and then at $5.15.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton fell 66 points to 67.73 cents, nearer the session low.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market saw corrective selling pressure following Tuesday’s solid gains that came after a bullish USDA monthly supply and demand report. Selling pressure in cotton in the near term should be limited, however, by the friendly USDA data and a rallying U.S. stock market that saw major indexes hit record highs. A slumping U.S. dollar index recently is also friendly for the cotton futures market. However, a sell off in the crude oil futures market recently is a negative outside-market influence for cotton.
World Weather Inc. today said much of western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma were dry Tuesday, with rain noted in pockets from north-central parts of West Texas to the central and eastern Panhandle as well as some southwestern parts of West Texas with east-central and southeastern West Texas also seeing rain. High temperatures in the west were in the middle 80s to the lower 90s, with some middle 90s in the south while other areas saw highs in the middle 90s to the lower 100s with a few middle 100s in the south. Western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see dry weather most often through much of the next two weeks and areas that received significant rain earlier this week will have enough soil moisture to support cotton development for a while, with stress to the cotton in most other areas likely to increase as the remaining soil moisture is lost to evaporation. Some showers will occur on occasion with the resulting rain not likely great enough to induce more than brief improvements in soil moisture. Rain should be greatest Sunday into next Wednesday when much of the region receives up to 0.50” and locally more. The Blacklands, Coastal Bend, and south Texas will also be dry through early next week and stress to cotton should rise with a few showers on occasion before a beneficial increase in rain occurs Aug. 20-24, when much of the region receives at least some rain and sees temporary improvements for cotton development.
Cotton traders will closely examine Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at the June high of 69.52 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the June low of 66.27 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 68.50 cents and then at 69.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 67.51 cents and then at 67.00 cents.
What to do: Finish 2024-crop sales. Today marks the end of the 2024-25 marketing year for cotton. We advise cotton hedgers and cash-only marketers to sell the final 25% of 2024-crop production to get to 100% sold. New-crop sales will wait for an extended rally.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.