Soybean producers: Advance 2025-crop sales... Soybean prices surged higher after reports China would purchase an additional 8 MMT this season. Those comments came from Trump on Truth Social. Given the uncertainty in fulfillment of these shipments, the risk of giving up today’s strength remains high. We advise soybean hedgers and cash-only marketers to sell another 20% of 2025 production to get to 50% sold. We will evaluate additional sales as the dust settles.
Corn
Price action: March corn futures rose 1 cent to $4.30, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw some more short covering today. Buying interest was also supported by a rally in the soybean complex. USDA today reported daily U.S. corn sales of 130,480 MT to unknown destinations during 2025-26.
Brazil is on track for ethanol production to expand in 2026 amid healthy ethanol prices, expansion of corn ethanol plants. The extra ethanol production might be too much for the local Brazilian market, noted Ricardo Carvolho of BP Bioenergy, which in turn may drive an increase in exports.
World Weather Inc. today said Paraguay and southern Brazil will see two more days of mostly dry weather, favorable conditions for fieldwork, and increasing crop stress before rain increases Friday and regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms will occur into Feb. 18. Most of the coming rain will not be heavy and will sometimes be poorly distributed, but rain will fall frequently enough to ease crop stress and induce increases in soil moisture while slowing fieldwork. Much of the remainder of Brazil will see regular rounds of rain and favorable conditions for crop development through the next two weeks while fieldwork is slowed, especially from Mato Grosso and northern Mato Grosso do Sul to Sao Paulo and nearby areas where rain will be frequent and fieldwork will be sluggish. Meantime, southern Argentina will benefit from additional rain into Thursday and crops will benefit from the moisture, but with little follow-up rain of significance expected into at least late next week stress to crops should soon increase again as the soil dries out. Excessive heat is not expected through at least the next week and that will help to prevent rapid increases in crop stress. Central and northern Argentina will see regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms during the next two weeks slowing fieldwork and allowing for mostly favorable conditions for crop development, but the drier areas in Entre Rios see nearly another week of little rain and rising levels of crop stress.
Technical analysis: Corn bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage as a price uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close March prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $4.34. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the contract low of $4.10. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.32 3/4 and then at $4.34. First support is seen at this week’s low of $4.24 and then at $4.21.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: March soybeans rose 26 1/2 cents to $10.92 1/4, near mid-range and hit a nearly two-month high. March soybean meal gained $4.30 to $296.20, near mid-range and hit a three-week high. March soybean oil gained 117 points to 55.66 cents, nearer the session high and hit a 5.5-month high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and bean oil markets saw solid buying interest today, much of which was short covering, on the surprise news of positive talks between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Trump and Xi reportedly discussed consideration by China to purchase more agricultural products, including increasing U.S. soybean purchases for the current marketing year to 20 million MT. However, today’s mid-range closes in soybeans and meal futures suggest traders are exhibiting a “show me” attitude regarding the potential uptick in Chinese U.S. soybean buys.
World Weather Inc. today said drying in far southern Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and eastern Argentina into the weekend will raise some concern for soybeans, corn and other crops because some of those areas are already too dry. Some welcome showers are advertised for the weekend and next week, easing some dryness. Western Argentina will also experience some timely rain. Rain frequency and intensity in center south Brazil may be a little high for aggressive early season soybean harvesting and Safrinha corn planting, but some progress is expected.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls today gained the overall near-term technical advantage by restarting a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing March prices above solid resistance at today’s high of $11.15 1/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of $10.51 3/4. First resistance is seen at $11.00 and then at $11.15 1/4. First support is seen at $10.85 1/2 and then at $10.70.
Soybean meal bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a price downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in March futures above solid technical resistance at $306.90. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of $282.10. First resistance comes in at $300.00 and then at today’s high of $303.60. First support is seen at $290.00 and then at today’s low of $288.30.
Bean oil bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage as bulls are working to restart a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing March prices above solid technical resistance at the August 2025 high of 56.11 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 50.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 56.00 cents and then at 56.50 cents. First support is seen at 55.00 cents and then at today’s low of 54.20 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 50% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 50% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: March SRW fell 2 cents to $5.26 3/4, near mid-range. March HRW lost 4 1/2 cents to $5.30 1/4, nearer the daily low. March spring wheat futures fell 2 1/4 $5.66, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets today saw some technical selling pressure. Bulls were disappointed that higher corn and soybean prices today could not pull wheat prices above unchanged.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country not much precipitation will occur in the next seven days and temperatures will be well above normal. The soil temperatures will be warming and some reduction in winter dormancy will begin to occur again. Greater precipitation is expected in the second week of the outlook; though, unusual warmth is likely to continue for most of it, too. In the Northern Plains, weather in the region will continue to be generally uneventful through the next seven days. Some insignificant snow showers and flurries will occur with plenty of unusual warmth. Greater snowfall is likely in the second week of the outlook.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends still in place on the daily bar charts. However, the bulls need to show fresh power soon to keep the uptrends alive. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the November high of $5.68. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.07. First resistance is seen at $5.35 and then at last week’s high of $5.44 3/4. First support is seen at $5.19 1/4 and then at $5.07.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the November high of $5.53 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.16. First resistance is seen at $5.40 and then at last week’s high of $5.50. First support is seen at $5.25 1/4 and then at $5.16.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton fell 7 points to 62.24 cents, nearer the daily low and closed at a contract-low close.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market paused today. The technical posture for cotton futures remains firmly bearish, which is keeping the chart-based bulls on the sidelines. The recent rally in the U.S. dollar index is also a negative for the cotton market. Cotton traders are looking forward to Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report, which has seen underwhelming U.S. cotton sales lately.
World Weather Inc. today said that south Texas and northeastern Mexico need rain to support planting in early March. West Texas recently benefited from snow and the moisture that resulted from it, but more moisture is needed in the region. In the U.S. southern Plains, a drier weather pattern will occur through the next two weeks and the infrequent and often light precipitation that occurs should not be great enough to prevent net losses of soil moisture during the period. The San Joaquin Valley and Southern Arizona will see occasional rounds of mostly light showers through the next two weeks with most of the resulting precipitation not likely to have much of an impact on soil moisture.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in March futures above technical resistance at the January high of 65.76 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 60.00 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 63.21 cents and then at 64.00 cents. First support is seen at the contract low of 62.16 cents and then at 62.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 20% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 20% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.