Corn
Price action: March corn fell 3/4 cent to $4.43 3/4 and near mid-range. For the week, December corn was up 3 cents.
5-day outlook: It was not a bad trading week for the corn futures bulls, given the selling pressure seen in the soy complex futures and the winter wheat futures markets, especially SRW. Corn futures remain in the middle of a choppy and sideways trading range but have seen limited price pressure in the wake of sell offs in the other grain futures markets.
As the calendar year winds down, look for low-volume trade around the holidays and as traders look toward USDA’s January production report.
30-day outlook: Corn traders will continue to closely monitor growing conditions for South American crops. In Brazil, a late-planted soybean crop will bring a particular focus on safrinha corn plantings. World Weather Inc. today said Brazil and Paraguay will see regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the next two weeks, with enough rain in much of the region to favorably support crop development and maintain or increase soil moisture while slowing fieldwork. Exceptions will occur in central and eastern Bahia and northeastern Minas Gerais where little rain is expected through most of the period with some important showers advertised for Saturday into Tuesday. Much of the rain Saturday into Tuesday should not be heavy, but the moisture will buy crops more time before greater stress to crops evolves. Some additional showers will occur Dec. 30-Jan. 2. In Argentina, a wetter weather pattern will begin today and nearly widespread rain will fall by Monday with multiple rounds of additional rain in most areas Tuesday into Dec. 28 that will slow fieldwork while increasing soil moisture and benefitting crops in the drier areas of the west. Soil moisture is short from La Pampa into San Luis and southwestern Cordoba and crop stress is likely to increase until rain returns. Some showers will occur Dec. 29-Jan. 2 with fieldwork likely to increase around the showers in central and southern Argentina while northern Argentina may need additional drying time before fieldwork can increase.
90-day outlook: Export demand for U.S. corn has been good. USDA this week gave a 125-million-bu. boost to U.S. corn exports for the 2025-26 marketing year. While corn futures prices have languished the past few weeks, the hefty U.S. corn sales abroad should keep a floor under futures prices.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: January soybeans fell 3 cents to $10.49 1/4, nearer the daily low, hit a seven-week low and for the week were down 27 1/2 cents. January soybean meal closed down 80 cents at $297.60, nearer the session low, hit a seven-week low and on the week down $4.90. January bean oil lost 21 points to 47.90 cents, nearer the daily low and hit a six-month low--and for the week were down 217 points.
5-day outlook: January soybean, meal and bean oil futures today saw a technically bearish weekly low closes as prices are trapped in downtrends on the daily bar charts. This suggests more chart-based selling pressure in the soy complex from the speculators early next week.
USDA today reported daily U.S. soybean export sales of 134,000 MT of soybeans to China during 2025-26. China’s Sinograin sold 32.7% of the 550,000 MT of soybeans offered in its third auction this month, consultancy Mysteel reported today, down from 77.5% in the first auction, as interest fades as the state stockpiler works to make room for U.S. soybean arrivals.
30-day outlook: Bean traders are more closely watching weather conditions in South American soybean-growing regions. World Weather Inc. today said favorable weather will continue in Argentina and much of Brazil during the next ten days. There is some concern for dryness in the far southwest of Argentina in La Pampa and southwestern Buenos Aires. A new area of drying is expected in east-central and northeastern Brazil from Parana to Bahia in the coming week, although the southern part of that region should get relief in the Dec. 27-Jan. 2 period. Bahia and portions of northeastern Brazil will be closely monitored for some potential ongoing dryness. Timely rain will continue in other parts of Brazil.
90-day outlook: U.S. trade relations with China will continue to be near the front burner of the soy complex futures markets. China is so far meeting its pledge to the U.S. regarding the amount of U.S. soybeans purchased. However, new and big U.S. arms sales to Taiwan announced this week did not please China, as the negative rhetoric between the two largest economies in the world seems to be rising a bit.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: March SRW wheat rose 2 cents to $5.09 3/4, nearer the daily high and for the week down 19 1/2 cents. March HRW wheat fell 1 3/4 cents to $5.15 1/4, near mid-range and on the week down 2 3/4 cents. March spring wheat futures rose 5 cents to $5.78, nearer the daily high and for the week up 3 cents.
5-day outlook: The winter wheat futures markets remain trapped in price downtrends on the daily bar charts. That may keep the speculative bears wanting to play the short sides in the near term. However, the stable corn market this week, in the face of sell offs in soybeans and wheat futures markets, gives the wheat bulls some hope there may not be much more downside in winter wheat futures.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. said today in a special report: “It is very important to note the impact of the heat on agriculture. Indeed, warm and dry conditions (in the Plains states) will be ideal for holiday travel and outdoor activities, but with temperatures frequently rising into the 70s and some 80s during the coming week to 10 days there is liable to be some livestock stress and a further loss in soil moisture that may excite some of the wheat producers and commodity trade as winter crops lose hardiness and become more drought stressed. Portions of the southern Plains will see temperatures rise into the 70s and 80s as soon as Saturday, although short-term cooling is expected Sunday before another bout of 70- and 80-degree heat begins Sunday and lasts through the Christmas holiday weekend. Soil moisture is already lacking across the region and another week to 10 days of limited precipitation and well-above-normal temperatures will remove more moisture from the soil and eliminate much of the winter hardiness that may have been present in the region’s wheat crop previously.”
90-day outlook: Hefty global supplies and mostly favorable weather conditions around the globe have kept wheat futures buyers at bay. However, there is lingering uncertainty over U.S. planted acres and whether or not it will be harvested or grazed. The all-important late-March USDA planting intentions report will provide grain traders more definitive crop acres numbers.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton futures rose 24 points to 63.75 cents, nearer the daily high. For the week, December cotton lost 8 points.
5-day outlook: The cotton futures market late this week saw some tepid short covering. However, the still-bearish near-term technical posture continues to limit buying interest from the speculators. Cotton traders will continue to look to the grain futures markets for their own daily price direction next week. The Christmas holiday next Thursday will likely make for a quieter, lower-volume trading week in cotton futures.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said recent dry conditions in California, the southwestern desert region and southwestern Plains have been good for late-season harvesting and routine field operations. U.S. harvesting should be virtually complete and the focus of weather needs during the winter should be on soil moisture replenishment from California to Texas and in parts of the southeastern states. Cotton conditions in West Africa are rated favorably with harvest progress advancing relatively well. Some recent rain disrupted fieldwork; though dry weather has resumed and late-season fieldwork should advance more readily. Late-season cotton in southern India cotton continues to develop and soil moisture is rated favorably in many areas. Drier weather of late in southern India should be supporting some early maturation and harvesting. Australia’s cotton crop would benefit from rain especially in western unirrigated areas where dryness is still of some concern. Irrigated crops should be performing well as are some of the dryland crops produced in the east.
90-day outlook: A surprisingly tame U.S. consumer price index this week likely provided a further boost to U.S. consumer confidence, following the Federal Reserve interest rate cut in early December. That should be good news for the cotton market and prompt some better demand for apparel. However, consumer apparel trends in recent years have moved more toward synthetic fibers, which has been an underlying worry for the cotton market bulls for some time now.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 15% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 15% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.