Corn
Price action: March corn futures fell 1 3/4 cents to $4.19 3/4, near mid-range and hit another 4.5-month low early on.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw mild follow-through selling today, following Monday’s drubbing in the wake of bearish USDA data. Trading action the rest of this week will be extra important for corn futures. A close on Friday near the weekly low would be ominously bearish for the market. Conversely, a close well up from this week’s low would begin to suggest a market bottom may be in place.
Pro Farmer crop consultant Michael Cordonnier left his Brazilian and Argentine 2025 production estimates unchanged at 137 MMT and 56 MMT, respectively. He holds a neutral bias toward both crops going forward.
World Weather Inc. today said some rain in La Pampa and western Buenos Aires overnight was welcome and brought temporary relief to dryness. Additional rain must fall throughout southern Argentina to stop the stress and potential decline in yield. Some additional showers are possible Thursday and again during the weekend, although resulting rainfall should be restricted. Additional opportunities for rain are advertised for Jan. 21-27. All other The Argentina crops are in good conditions timely rain to continue. Brazil crops are rated well and should continue performing favorably because of a good mix of rain and sunshine over the next two weeks. A few drier pockets are unlikely to have a big impact on production potential. The northeastern states will be most closely monitored for dryness later this month.
Technical analysis: Corn bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close March prices above solid chart resistance at $4.35. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the contract low of $4.10. First resistance is seen at $4.25 and then at $4.30. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.17 1/4 and then at $4.10.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: March soybeans fell 10 1/4 cents to $10.38 3/4, near the daily low and hit a three-month low. March soybean meal fell $6.70 to $291.60, near the daily low and hit a nearly three-month low. March soybean rose 93 points to 51.20 cents, nearer the daily high and hit a four-week high.
Fundamental analysis: Soybeans saw follow-through selling pressure following Monday’s losses that came following bearish USDA data. Giving the bears more fuel today was news that President Trump on Monday slapped new tariffs on goods from countries trading with Iran, which risks derailing his one-year trade truce with China, the world’s top buyer of Iranian oil. Spreaders were featured buying soybean oil and selling meal today, with bean oil supported by a rally in the crude oil market this week.
USDA today reported daily sales of 168,000 MT of U.S. soybeans to China and 152,404 MT to Mexico during the 2025-26 marketing year.
Pro Farmer crop consultant Michael Cordonnier left his Brazilian and Argentine 2025 production estimates unchanged at 178 MMT and 49 MMT, respectively. He holds a neutral to higher bias toward the Brazilian crop and neutral bias toward the Argentine crop.
World Weather Inc. today said most crops in Brazil and Paraguay will see regular rounds of rain that will maintain favorable soil moisture for crop development while fieldwork is slowed at times. The driest areas in northeastern Brazil will see little rain through Saturday and stress to crop may increase in eastern Bahia and northeastern Minas Gerais where soil moisture is mostly short before regular rounds of showers Sunday into next week induce some improvements in soil and crop conditions. Far southern Brazil should see the least rain overall during the next two weeks, but with some rain expected and favorable soil moisture in place today, crop development should occur in a mostly favorable environment through the period. In Argentina the driest areas in southern regions will benefit from regular rounds of showers through the next two weeks and although much of the rain is not likely to be heavy, enough rain should fall to prevent significant declines in crop and soil conditions and many areas should see net improvements in crop conditions during the period. Favorable soil moisture in place today in central and northern Argentina and occasional rain during the next two weeks should maintain mostly favorable conditions for crop development through the period.
Technical analysis: The soybean bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing March prices above solid resistance at this week’s high of $10.71 1/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of $10.28 1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $10.52 1/4 and then at $10.60. First support is seen at $10.28 1/2 and then at the August low of $10.17.
Soybean meal bears have the overall near-term technical advantage and gained more power today. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in March futures above solid technical resistance at $306.90. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of $282.10. First resistance comes in at $295.00 and then at $300.00. First support is seen at $290.00 and then at $285.00.
Bean oil bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending up on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing March prices above solid technical resistance at the December high of 53.38 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the December low of 48.05 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 51.60 cents and then at 52.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 50.15 cents and then at this week’s low of 49.80 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: March SRW fell 3/4 cent to $5.10 1/2 and near mid-range. March HRW lost 7 1/4 cents to $5.19 1/2 and near the daily low. March spring wheat futures rose 3/4 cents to $5.66 1/2.
Fundamental analysis: The HRW futures markets saw follow-through selling pressure today, while the SRW market paused. Look for the wheat markets to take direction from corn in the near term.
Australia and Argentina exported around 620,000 MT of wheat to China in December, according to shipping data, with analysts expecting shipments to continue as Chinese buyers take advantage of low global prices. December shipments to China from Australia were the largest since April 2024 and the most from Argentina since 1997, according to Reuters.
Russia’s IKAR consultancy raised the country’s grain export potential for the 2025-26 season to 60.2 MMT, up from 57.8 MMT, but warned the target may not be met due to a poor crop in the south.
World Weather Inc. today said recent precipitation in U.S. hard red winter wheat areas and soft wheat areas of the Midwest improved soil moisture for some areas. There is still need for more precipitation, especially in the northwestern and far southwestern parts of hard red winter wheat areas and in the heart of the Midwest. Cooler weather in the Midwest will be good for winter crops while warming in the Plains will raise the need for another shot of colder weather soon. Bitter cold in western Russia and northeastern Europe will have no negative impact on winter crops because of significant snow cover. Drought in the Middle East, Morocco and northwestern Algeria has been eased, although more rain is needed. Some of that needed moisture is expected to evolve in the next few weeks. Central and southern Tunisia and interior northeastern Algeria are driest today. France has seen some improved topsoil moisture as well and more precipitation is needed to end long term drought. Some of that moisture will be coming in the next week to 10 days.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage but trading has turned choppy and sideways at lower levels. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the December high of $5.44 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at $5.20 and then at this week’s high of $5.28. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.07 and then at the contract low of $5.01 1/2.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at today’s high of $5.44 3/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $4.98 3/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.27 1/4 and then at $5.36. First support is seen at $5.08 1/4 and then at $4.98 3/4.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton fell 3 points to 64.88 cents, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures today paused following Monday’s gains. Mostly lower grain futures prices limited buying interest in cotton. However, sellers were kept at bay as crude oil prices rallied to a three-month high today.
World Weather Inc. today said precipitation is needed in most of Texas and from Florida and southeastern Alabama to the Carolinas and Virginia. Additional moisture would also be good for Arizona and southern California, but precipitation may be restricted for a while in the next 10 days. Late-season cotton in southern India continues to fill, mature and be harvested. Any showers that occur in the next ten days will fail to produce enough rain to threaten unharvested crop quality. Australia’s cotton crop would benefit greatly from rain especially in western unirrigated areas where dryness is still a concern. Irrigated crops should be performing well as are some of the dryland crops produced in the east. Not much change in weather or crop conditions is likely for a while. Production is expected to be reduced by a cut in area planted and by poor rainfall in dryland production areas of the west. Argentina planting conditions have not been ideal this season, though recent weather has improved and much of the planting should now be complete or nearly complete. Timely rainfall and warm temperatures would be best for the crop.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. However, the bulls are working on keeping alive price uptrend on the daily bar chart. They need to show more power soon to do so. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in March futures above technical resistance at 67.50 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of 63.68 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 65.25 cents and then at the January high of 65.76 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 64.47 cents and then at 64.26 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 20% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 20% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.