Corn
Price action: March corn futures rose 5 1/2 cents to $4.35, nearer the session high and hit a three-week high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw more short covering today and perceived bargain buying today. The chart-based speculators also stepped in on the long side today as the near-term technical posture for corn significantly improved today. Buying interest was also supported by the solid rally in the soybean complex.
USDA today reported weekly U.S. corn export sales totaled 1.041 MMT for the week ended Jan. 29, down 33% from the previous week but up 3% from the four-week average. Net sales were within the pre-report range of 800,000 MT of 2.1 MMT.
World Weather Inc. today said drying in far southern Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and eastern Argentina into next week will raise some concern for soybeans, corn and other crops because some of those areas are already too dry. Limited relief is expected through this time next week, though, some greater rain is possible thereafter. Southwestern Argentina will experience some timely rain.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls now have the slight overall near-term technical advantage as a price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been restarted. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close March prices above solid chart resistance at $4.50. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at this week’s low of $4.24. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.35 1/4 and then at $4.40. First support is seen at $4.30 and then at today’s low of $4.27.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: March soybeans rose 20 cents to $11.12 1/4, near the session high and closed at a nearly two-month high close today. March soybean meal gained $7.00 to $303.20, nearer the session high and hit a four-week high. March soybean oil fell 1 point to 55.65 cents, near mid-range and hit a 5.5-month high early on.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and meal futures markets saw heavy short covering and perceived bargain buying today, as well as some technical buying amid much-improved near-term chart postures for soybeans and meal. The bulls continue to feed off of the positive talks between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping Wednesday that Trump said China is considering purchasing more agricultural products, including increasing U.S. soybean purchases for the current marketing year to 20 million MT.
USDA today reported weekly U.S. soybean export sales of 436,900 MT, a marketing-year low, down 47% from the previous week and 72% from the four-week average. Net sales were near the low-end of the pre-report range of 400,000 MT to 1.6 MMT.
World Weather Inc. today said Paraguay and southern Brazil will see another day of mostly dry weather, favorable conditions for fieldwork, and increasing crop stress before rain increases Friday and regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms will occur into Feb. 19. Most of the coming rain will not be heavy and will sometimes be poorly distributed, but rain will fall frequently enough to ease crop stress and induce increases in soil moisture while slowing fieldwork. Much of the remainder of Brazil will see regular rounds of rain and favorable conditions for crop development through the next two weeks while fieldwork is slowed, especially from Mato Grosso and northern Mato Grosso do Sul to Sao Paulo and nearby areas where rain will be frequent and fieldwork will be sluggish. In Argentina, southern regions will see little follow-up rain of significance into at least late next week and stress to crops should gradually increase in areas that received significant rain the past couple days while steady increases in crop stress occur in areas that were dry or received light rain. Excessive heat is not expected through at least the next week and that will help to prevent rapid increases in crop stress. Central and northern Argentina will see regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms during the next two weeks slowing fieldwork and allowing for mostly favorable conditions for crop development, but the drier areas in Entre Rios will see several more days of little rain and rising levels of crop stress.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing March prices above solid resistance at the November high of $11.72 1/2. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of $10.51 3/4. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $11.15 1/4 and then at $11.25. First support is seen at $11.00 and then at $10.85 1/2.
Soybean meal bulls now have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. A price downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in March futures above solid technical resistance at $310.80. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of $288.30. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $305.50 and then at $306.90. First support is seen at $300.00 and then at today’s low of $295.50.
Bean oil bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage as bulls have restarted a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing March prices above solid technical resistance at the August 2025 high of 56.11 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 52.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 56.11 cents and then at 56.50 cents. First support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 54.20 cents and then at today’s low of 54.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 50% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 50% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: March SRW rose 8 1/2 cents to $5.35 1/4, nearer the daily high. March HRW gained 8 1/4 cents to $5.38 1/2, near the daily high. March spring wheat futures rose 5 1/2 cents to $5.71 1/2, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets today saw short covering and perceived bargain hunting. Solid gains in corn and soybeans also supported the wheat markets today.
USDA reported weekly wheat sales totaled 373,000 MT during the week ended Jan. 29, down 33% from the previous week but up 3% from the four-week average. Net sales were within the pre-report range of 300,000 to 600,000 MT.
World Weather Inc. today said recent bitter cold in eastern Ukraine and a minor part of Russia’s Southern Region may have led to a little winter crop damage because of limited snow cover. The area impacted was quite small and unlikely to have a big impact on overall production. Drought in the Middle East, Morocco and northwestern Algeria has been eased and will continue to be eased. Tunisia dryness has also been eased recently with more moisture coming. France has seen some improved topsoil moisture in recent weeks and more precipitation is needed to end long term drought. Some of that moisture will be falling in the next week to ten days. Local flooding will be possible in western France, western Spain, Portugal and the southern Balkan countries; including western and southern Turkey. Precipitation and/or sufficient soil moisture is present around the world in most other winter crop areas maintaining a favorable outlook for wheat and other small grains, although timely spring rainfall will be imperative for eastern China, parts of eastern and northern France, eastern Spain, the U.S. central and southern Plains and across Canada’s Prairies when spring arrives.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends still in place on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the November high of $5.68. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.07. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $5.44 3/4 and then at $5.50. First support is seen at this week’s low of $5.22 1/4 and then at $5.10.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the November high of $5.53 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.16. First resistance is seen at $5.40 and then at last week’s high of $5.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.26 1/2 and then at $5.16.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton fell 48 points to 61.76 cents, nearer the daily low and hit another contract low.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market saw technical selling pressure resume today as the near-term technical posture for the market remains firmly bearish. The recent rally in the U.S. dollar index and sharply lower crude oil prices today were also negatives for the cotton market.
This morning’s weekly USDA export sales report showed better export sales of U.S. cotton totaling 249,800 running bales (RB) for 2025/2026 were up 23 percent from the previous week, but down 5 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Vietnam (54,000 RB, including 600 RB switched from South Korea), Pakistan (48,100 RB, including decreases of 2,200 RB), China (36,600 RB), Turkey (32,800 RB), and Bangladesh (31,800 RB), were offset by reductions for South Korea (1,100 RB). Net sales of 114,900 RB for 2026/2027 were primarily for Malaysia (52,800 RB), Indonesia (33,400 RB), Mexico (8,800 RB), Nicaragua (8,800 RB), and Turkey (6,600 RB). Exports of 235,300 RB were down 9 percent from the previous week, but up 25 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (84,300 RB), Pakistan (29,100 RB), Bangladesh (19,500 RB), Turkey (17,600 RB), and China (16,000 RB).
World Weather Inc. today said rain will soon fall in New South Wales, Australia, offering some relief to recent dryness. Cotton conditions should improve, although it is unclear how much impact the recent hot and dry conditions have had on production. Queensland is unlikely to get much moisture and its western dryland crop has struggled with dryness most of the growing season possibly resulting in lower production. Late-season cotton in southern India continues to be harvested. Any showers that occur in the next ten days will fail to produce enough rain to threaten unharvested crop quality. Developing El Nino later this summer “may” have an impact on India summer rainfall and that will be closely monitored. South Texas and northeastern Mexico need rain to support planting in early March. West Texas recently benefited from snow and the moisture that resulted from it, but more moisture is needed in the region. Some showers may evolve in west Texas briefly late next week. Rain is also needed in Arizona and neighboring areas of Mexico and California. Mountain snowpack in the southern Rocky Mountain region and will be less than usual this spring. The impressive snowstorm in the Carolinas and neighboring areas of Georgia and Virginia last weekend brought some moisture to the region for use in the spring. Additional precipitation is needed in these areas and northern Florida and southeastern Alabama. Argentina crop conditions are favorable. Timely rainfall and warm temperatures should dominate the next ten days. Cotton planting in Brazil has advanced well and should benefit from a pattern of scattered showers and thunderstorms intermixed with some periods of rain.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in March futures above technical resistance at 64.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 60.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 62.50 cents and then at this week’s high of 63.21 cents. First support is seen at 61.50 cents and then at 61.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 20% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 20% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.