Corn
Price action: July corn rose 3/4 cent to $4.39 1/2, after carving a fresh for-the-move low early on.
Fundamental analysis: A new for-the-move low was forged in early trade, notching levels not seen since the glut of harvest last year. However, short-covering gains in wheat and decided strength in soybeans lifted corn from session lows. Meanwhile, demand for U.S. corn continues to lend support, with USDA reporting net old-crop U.S. export sales of 942,300 MT for the week ended May 29. Net sales rose 3% from the previous week but were down 31% from the previous four-week average. Net new-crop sales totaled 160,100 MT. Both figures were within pre-report ranges.
While several key production states, including Ohio, Kentucky, and Indiana have faced planting delays, which have been drawn out to the prevent plant date, some weather concerns are cropping up in the western Corn Belt. World Weather Inc. reports Iowa and Nebraska and immediate neighboring areas continue to be closely monitored for dryness amid less than usual rainfall during the growing season so far.
Many producers will likely choose to take prevent-plant or choose an alternative crop as insurance coverage decreases by 1% per day through the “late-planting period” for producers who have opted for a revenue protection policy.
Technical analysis: July corn rebounded from a fresh for-the-move low today, indicating prices have found a “value-buy” level. However, bears continue to grasp the near-term technical advantage and would certainly like to breach support at $4.26 3/4, though initial support will serve at $4.35 1/2, then at today’s low of $4.33 1/4 and again at $4.27. Meanwhile, bulls will need to overcome resistance at the 200- and 40-day moving averages, each trading around $4.63, though additional resistance at the 100-day moving average of $4.77 1/4 could pare a move charged to take out the April high of $4.97 1/2.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans climbed 6 3/4 cents to $10.51 3/4 and closed near mid-range. July meal futures closed steady at $297.10. July bean oil slid 16 points to 46.65 cents.
Fundamental analysis: Soybeans saw impressive gains today, supported by positive news that Trump and Xi’s conversation went well today. President Trump posted on Truth Social that he and President Xi had a “very good” phone call and “resulted in a very positive conclusion for both countries.” Next steps involve a meeting between the countries respective teams with Secretary of the Treasury Bessent leading the U.S. team. The news that trade talks are progressing could not have come at a better time considering this morning’s disappointing export sales report. USDA reported net old-crop soybean sales of 194,300 MT for the week ended May 29, up 33% from the previous week but down 30% from the four-week average. Net new-crop sales totaled 3,500 MT. Both figures were within expected ranges. The thing that really stuck out in this morning’s report was China’s disappearance from the market. For the first time since 2005, China does not have any outstanding sales for either old-crop or new-crop. China’s return to the U.S. soybean market could be the catalyst it needs to break out of the recent sideways range.
Regular rounds of rain will continue through the next two weeks, ensuring ample soil moisture throughout most of the Midwest, though late season plantings will be hindered, says World Weather Inc. Some concerns remain in portions of the eastern and southern Midwest as saturated conditions are preventing planting and could cause a poor start to the crop.
Technical analysis: July soybeans saw impressive strength today, climbing for the third consecutive session. Bears continue to retain a modest technical advantage and are looking to close prices back below the psychological $10.50 mark. Weakness below that support would open the door to a test of support at $10.40. Bulls are ultimately looking to overcome resistance at $10.64 1/4, the 200-day moving average, though resistance stands at today’s high of $10.56 3/4 on the way.
July meal futures continue to butt up against resistance at the 40-day moving average at $297.20. Bulls have shown some signs of life in the past couple of weeks, putting in a series of higher lows. Resistance stands at the psychological $300.00 mark on continued strength. Bulls are seeking to keep prices above support at $295.70, which is reinforced by support at $293.90.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 65% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 65% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW wheat rose 2 1/4 cents to $5.45 1/2, near mid-range. July HRW wheat rose 2 cents to $5.42 1/2, near mid-range. July spring wheat futures climbed 1 3/4 cents to $6.25 1/4.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets today saw some more tepid short covering, but the bulls are continuing to work on fledgling price uptrends starting to form on the daily bar charts. Today’s gains in wheat came despite risk appetite in the general marketplace that is far from robust. Higher corn futures prices today also helped out the wheat market bulls.
USDA this morning reported old-crop U.S. wheat export sales reductions of 49,100 MT, while new-cropU.S. wheat sales totaled 444,900 MT for the week ended May 29. Net sales were within the expected pre-report ranges.
Traders are watching extreme weather conditions in China wheat regions. Major storms and floods are likely to be more frequent and intense than normal, state broadcaster CCTV reported. Floods in northern China from June to August are likely to be more severe this year, presenting a threat to the country’s key grain-producing region.
Meanwhile, World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, southeastern production areas “will still be too wet in the next seven to 10 days. However, a period of drier weather is expected after June 13, which will be highly needed. Concern over wet weather disease and grain quality decline continues in Oklahoma and southeastern production areas of Kansas, where soil moisture is greatest.” Conditions in western production areas of the region will continue to be more favorable. In the northern Plains, Montana will be drier than preferred in the first week of the outlook and some crop stress could rise in unirrigated fields. However, some timely rainfall is still expected in the second week. A favorable mix of rain and sunshine will continue in most other parts of the region in the next two weeks, said World Weather.
Technical analysis: SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at the May high of $5.56 1/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.06 1/4. First resistance is seen at $5.50 and then at $5.56 1/4. First support is seen at $5.40 and then at this week’s low of $5.31 3/4.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at $5.75. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.00 1/4. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $5.50 1/2 and then at $5.60. First support is seen at this week’s low of $5.30 and then at last week’s low of $5.23.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop production. You should be 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop production. You should be 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton rose 37 points to 65.36 cents.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw some profit-taking today, maintaining the recent lows. This morning’s export sales report failed to provide a bullish catalyst. Export sales continue to weaken seasonally, which is expected to continue into the end of the marketing year. USDA reported export sales totaling 116,500 bales, essentially steady with a week ago but down 5% from the four-week average. Meanwhile, export shipments totaled 327,200 bales, above average and well above the tally a week ago at 327,200 bales.
Planting in western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will be slowed by regular rounds of rain through the middle of next week, but coverage will not be widespread enough to prevent some late planting from taking place. The region will experience a welcome increase in soil moisture, says World Weather Inc. Outside markets spilled volatility into the cotton market today. Weekly jobless claims rose to the highest mark in over eight months, which brings some question as to how well demand will hold up amid ongoing economic uncertainty.
Technical analysis: July cotton futures closed higher today but struggled to build much bullish momentum. Bulls failed to close prices above initial resistance at the 10-day moving average, currently trading at 65.55 cents. Strength above that mark would target resistance at this week’s high of 66.47 cents. A reversal back lower would have bulls seeking to hold support at 65.00 cents, which is reinforced by the May 30 low at 64.51 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.