Corn
Price action: July corn fell 6 cents to $4.10 1/4 to a new contract low close.
Fundamental analysis: Corn futures extended losses for the fourth straight session amid technical selling across the grain complex. Mostly favorable weather across the Midwest has also invited sellers along with improving safrinha production prospects in Brazil. While some excessive heat is moving across the Corn Belt, which may accelerate drying and crop stress in some of the driest areas, South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, southern Minnesota and Wisconsin will each receive significant rain over the next several days improving crop and field conditions.
Meanwhile, on Tuesday, Agroconsult estimated Brazilian farmers will produce a record 123.3 MMT of safrinha corn after surveying fields in key production regions across the nation. Persistent rains have fallen in southern portions of center south Brazil, bolstering yield prospects. However, some drying is needed for additional maturation and harvest, while center west crop areas have and will not see much moisture, which will allow for greater harvest efforts.
Early Thursday morning, USDA will release its weekly Export Sales Report, with analysts expecting net sales to have ranged from 500,000 MT to 1.2 MMT during the week ended June 19. Last week, USDA reported net sales of 903,792 MT for the previous week.
Technical analysis: July corn forged a new contract low today, pressured by the 10-, 20- and 40-day moving averages, layered from $4.29 to $4.45 1/2, with bears ultimately forging a close below support at $4.10 1/2. Initial support will now serve at $4.05 3/4, though bears seem determined to edge below $4.00 before first notice day. However technically oversold conditions may limit a move lower and spur some corrective trade. Bulls will need to edge above the 200-day moving average of $4.62 1/4 to regain technical momentum.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans fell 21 1/2 cents to $10.25 1/4, near the session low and hit a 2.5-month low. July soybean meal fell $4.50 to $276.00, near the daily low and set a contract low. July soybean oil fell 35 points to 51.82 cents, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean market saw more selling pressure today as rainfall in the Midwest continues to bolster good growing conditions for the majority of the U.S. crop. Another significant drop in corn and wheat futures prices today also spilled over into selling pressure in soybeans.
World Weather Inc. today said rain will continue in many of the drier areas in the western U.S. Corn Belt into Thursday, with portions of the central Midwest and the Great Lakes region also seeing rain while most other areas were dry. Additional and sometimes heavy rain will occur into Thursday from northeastern Kansas to southeastern South Dakota to Wisconsin where some flooding may occur with less frequent and lighter rain in most of the remainder of the Midwest, said World Weather. Another round of daily showers and thunderstorms will occur Friday into Monday when timely rain falls across nearly all of the Midwest.
Risk appetite in the general marketplace also waned today following news Tuesday of an Israel-Iran ceasefire. That also limited speculator buying interest in the soy complex.
Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report is expected to show U.S. soybean sales of 200,000 to 600,000 MT in the 2024-25 marketing year, and sales of zero to 150,000 MT in the 2025-26 marketing year.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have lost their overall near-term technical advantage. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing July prices above solid resistance at $10.65. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $10.00. First resistance is seen at $10.40 and then at $10.50. First support is seen at $10.20 and then at $10.10.
Soybean meal futures bears have the solid near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in July futures above solid technical resistance at $290.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $270.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $281.00 and then at this week’s high of $285.90. First support is seen at today’s contract low of $275.80 and then at $270.00.
Bean oil bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded recently. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing July prices above solid technical resistance at the June high of 55.81 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 50.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 53.06 cents and then at 54.00 cents. First support is seen at 51.50 cents and then at 50.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 65% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 65% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: September SRW futures closed 7 1/2 cents lower at $5.44 1/2 and near session lows. September HRW futures slid 10 3/4 cents to $5.39. September spring wheat futures close 13 3/4 cents lower at $6.28.
Fundamental analysis: Wheat futures saw another day of heavy selling pressure, falling in tandem with the corn and soybean markets. The June lows stalled selling efforts today and will remain a key technical level as we head into the latter portion of the week. The next market catalyst is right around the corner with the June 30 quarterly stocks and acreage reports from USDA. The report will detail ending stocks for the 2024-25 marketing year and give insight into 2025 production. The last several years has yielded little change in terms of acreage, but we do anticipate stocks coming in below where USDA detailed ending stocks in their June WASDE.
News out of the Black Sea was a mixed bag today. The Russian crop appears to not be as badly damaged by recent dryness as anticipated. Black Sea consulting firm SovEcon raised its forecast for Russia’s wheat crop by 200,000 MT to 83 MMT, citing improved crop conditions in areas of central Russia. Russia producing a modestly larger crop will compete with U.S. origin crops on the world market. Meanwhile, Ukrainian drone attacks overnight damaged a grain facility and other structures in Russia’s southern region of Rostov on the Ukrainian border, Russian authorities said. In the town of Azov, situated on the Don River about 16 km (10 miles) from the Sea of Azov, the attack damaged a grain storage warehouse, though no further details were provided.
USDA will release their weekly Export Sales report tomorrow morning. Pre-report estimates compiled by Reuters call for sales between 300,000 and 600,000 MT. Last week, sales totaled 427,170 MT.
Technical analysis: September SRW futures fell for the fourth consecutive session. A modest uptrend persists on the daily bar chart. Continued selling has bears looking to close prices below the June 13 low of $5.37 3/4. Little support persists below that mark until $5.29 3/4. Resistance stands at the psychological $5.50 mark on a bounce, which is reinforced by resistance at $5.58, the 40-day moving average.
September HRW futures continue to undergo staunch selling as well. Support comes in at $5.32 on continued weakness, with reinforcement from support at $5.25. Resistance stands at the psychological $5.50 mark then the 10-day moving average at $5.56 on a bounce.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton rose 53 points to 68.32 cents, nearer the session high and hit a three-week high.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market saw more short covering at mid-week, for the fourth straight day of price gains. The July contract was boosted on Tuesday as Louis Dreyfus was a reported good stopper of July cotton deliveries on the first-notice day. A slightly lower U.S. dollar index and firmer crude oil prices today were friendly outside-market elements for the cotton market. However, gains were limited as risk appetite in the general marketplace waned today, following more upbeat attitudes on Tuesday, when news of an Israel-Iran ceasefire lifted sentiment.
World Weather Inc. today said West Texas rainfall will be limited over the next seven days more moisture is still needed in the dryland areas. Field conditions in portions of the Delta are still too wet, although recent warm temperatures and restricted rain is firming the topsoil. Portions of the southeastern U.S. will see a good mix of rain and sunshine during the next two weeks.
Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report will be closely scrutinized by cotton traders. Cotton bulls are hoping for better sales and shipments numbers than seen recently.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, bulls have gained upside momentum this week to begin to suggest a market bottom is in place. A price downtrend has been negated. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 70.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the June low of 66.27 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 68.70 cents and then at 69.00 cents. First support is seen at 68.00 cents and then at Tuesday’s low of 67.34 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.