Corn
Price action: March corn futures fell 1 cent to $4.43 3/4, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: Trading in the corn futures market remains choppy and sideways as prices are right in the middle of a well-defined trading range. Positioning ahead of Tuesday’s USDA monthly supply and demand report for December was featured today. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, on average, look for the agency to lower its estimate of U.S. corn ending stocks by 8.2 million bushels from its November figure, to 2.146 billion bushels.
USDA today reported weekly U.S. corn export inspections for the week ended Dec. 4 totaled 1.45 MMT, down 177,474 MT from the previous week but at the top end of the pre-report range of 1.2 to 1.45 MMT.
Brazil’s total corn production is set to reach 135.3 MMT in 2025-26, down from a record 141.1 MMT in the previous season, according to AgRural.
World Weather Inc. today said the two-week outlook for Brazil corn regions has not changed much since late last week and frequent rain and continued improvements in soil moisture and conditions for crops will occur through the period across much of northern Brazil. Exceptions will occur in central and eastern Bahia where little rain is expected. Central Brazil will also see frequent rain and fieldwork will be slowed while southern Brazil and Paraguay see a mix of rain and sunshine allowing fieldwork to advance during the drier periods while soil moisture remains supportive of crop development. In Argentina, outside of significant rain today in northeastern Argentina, rain during the next two weeks will be light most often and fieldwork should advance well around the rain while much of the country dries down overall. Regular rounds of showers through the next two weeks and a lack of significant heat through at least the next week will slow drying rates buying crops more time to develop with adequate to favorable soil moisture with many areas likely in need of greater rain by late this month.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close March prices above solid chart resistance at the November high of $4.57. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the November low of $4.34 1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.47 1/4 and then at $4.50. First support is seen at last week’s low of $4.41 3/4 and then at $4.35.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: January soybeans lost 11 1/2 cents to $10.93 3/4, near the session low and hit a five-week low. January soybean meal fell $1.10 to $306.30, near mid-range and hit a five-week low. January soybean oil fell 51 points to 51.18 cents, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and meal futures markets saw more technical selling today, which also pressured the bean oil market. The near-term technical postures for both soybean and meal markets have significantly deteriorated lately.
Traders are awaiting Tuesday morning’s monthly USDA supply and demand report for December. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, on average, look for the agency to peg U.S. soybean ending stocks up 16 million bushels from the November report, to 306.1 million bushels.
USDA today reported daily sales of 132,000 MT of U.S. soybeans to China during the 2025-26 marketing year. USDA also reported weekly U.S. soybean export inspections for the week ended Dec. 4 totaled 1.02 MMT, up 85,641 MT from the previous week and near the upper end of the pre-report range of 900,000 MT to 1.25 MMT.
China’s soybean imports reached their highest November since 2021, according to a Reuters calculation based on customs data earlier today. In the first 11 months of the year, China’s soybean imports rose 6.9% from a year earlier to 103.79 MMT, according to customs data.
World Weather Inc. today said improving rainfall in center-west and center-south Brazil will bolster soil moisture for better summer crop development in the next couple of weeks. Timely rain is also expected in southern Brazil. Drying in western and southern Rio Grande do Sul will be most significant Dec. 13-19. Meantime, soil moisture in Argentina is rated quite favorably, although there is need for more moisture in the northwest and that should evolve in the next ten days. Rain today and Monday will be greatest in the north leaving southwestern Buenos Aires and La Pampa in a net drying mode through mid-month. Some crop moisture stress may evolve as the ground dries out.
Technical analysis: The soybean bears now have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. A bearish head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern is playing out on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing January prices above solid resistance at the December high of $11.42 1/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $10.50. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $11.07 1/2 and then at $11.20. First support is seen at $10.87 and then at $10.75.
Soybean meal bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart and a bearish head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern has also formed. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in January futures above solid technical resistance at the December high of $319.60. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $300.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $308.90 and then at Friday’s high of $311.60. First support is seen at today’s low of $304.30 and then at $300.00.
Bean oil bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing January prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of 54.40 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the November low of 48.66 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 51.71 cents and then at 52.00 cents. First support is seen at 51.00 cents and then at 50.50 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: March SRW fell 1 cent to $5.34 3/4, near mid-range. March HRW lost 4 3/4 cents to $5.26 1/2, nearer the daily low. March spring wheat futures fell 1 3/4 cents to $5.71 1/4.
Fundamental analysis: Winter wheat markets today saw some trader positioning ahead of Tuesday morning’s USDA monthly supply and demand report for December. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, on average, look for the agency to show U.S. wheat stocks down 7.2 million bushels from the November report, at 893.8 million bushels.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat export inspections for the week ended Dec. 4 totaled 393,341 MT, up 7,541 MT from the previous week and near the upper end of the pre-report range of 200,000 to 400,000 MT.
Ukraine’s wheat production could increase to 23.9 MMT in 2026-27, up from 23.0 million this season, supported by a rise in planted area and improved early crop conditions, according to Argus Media.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, a lack of precipitation will continue through the next seven to 10 days. Temperatures will be unusually warm through Wednesday. However, a surge of unusually cold air will then arrive Friday and continue into the weekend. A little snow will occur in northern production areas before the coldest air arrives, which could help to protect crops. Still, a close monitoring of the snow distribution, or lack of snow, will be warranted. In the Northern Plains, precipitation will be frequent and somewhat significant for this time of year in the next seven days. A majority of this will involve snow and further add to the deepening snowpack. Crops will be protected from significant cold and all of the snow on the ground will be good for supporting crops when it eventually melts in spring. An arctic air mass will make temperatures quite cold Thursday through Sunday.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending down on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the November high of $5.68. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.08 1/2. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $5.44 1/2 and then at $5.50. First support is seen at this last week’s low of $5.29 3/4 and then at $5.25.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the November high of $5.33 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $4.98 3/4. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $5.36 1/4 and then at $5.40. First support is seen at $5.19 1/2 and then at $5.10.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton fell 25 points to 63.68 cents, near the daily low and hit a two-week low.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw some more technical selling pressure today, along with some position evening, ahead of Tuesday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report. Cotton is the only major crop to receive a production update in the December report. U.S. cotton production is forecast at 14.16 million bales versus 14.12 million in the last report. U.S. exports are seen at 12.09 million bales compared to 12.20 million in the prior report. U.S. ending stocks are seen at 4.44 million bales versus 4.30 million in the last report. Those figures come from a Bloomberg survey of analysts.
USDA today reported weekly U.S. cotton export sales of 302,700 running bales for the week of Nov. 6, which were well above the previous week’s levels.
World Weather Inc. today said favorable late-season harvest weather is likely in California, the U.S. southwestern desert region and West Texas. Fieldwork in the southeastern states has been disrupted by rain and conditions should improve. Some partial relief to drought conditions occurred in Georgia, Alabama and northern Florida over the past week.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in March futures above technical resistance at 66.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the November low of 63.11 cents. First resistance is seen at 64.95 cents and then at 65.50 cents. First support is seen at 63.50 cents and then at 63.11 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 15% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 15% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.