Corn
Price action: May corn futures fell 1/2 cent to $4.36 1/2, nearer the session high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw some mild chart-based selling as a price uptrend on the daily bar chart for May futures has been negated. A higher U.S. dollar index today added some price pressure to corn. However, solid gains in crude oil futures prices today and a new eight-month high limited the downside.
USDA released its annual Outlook Forum projections this morning and anticipates U.S. corn acres to total 94.0 million, down from 98.8 million this year, with production of 15.8 billion bushels and established a 183.0 bu. per acre trendline yield. USDA pegged demand at 16.07 billion bushels amid declines to feed and residual and exports. The numbers were close to market expectations.
World Weather Inc. today said Paraguay and southern Brazil will see additional rain into the middle of next week that will result in beneficial increases in soil moisture for developing crops. Rain into the middle of next week should leave the soil moist enough to support developing crops into at least early March with the infrequent showers expected Feb. 26-Mar. 5 important in slowing drying rates. Much of the remainder of Brazil will see regular rounds of rain and favorable conditions for crop development through the next two weeks while fieldwork is slowed with the poorest conditions for fieldwork occurring in northern Brazil where rain will be frequent. In Argentina, additional rain will fall into Sunday from San Luis, Cordoba, and northeastern La Pampa to Entre Rios and Santiago del Estero, where crops in areas with marginal to short soil moisture will benefit from the moisture while fieldwork is slowed. Meanwhile, the remainder of La Pampa into Buenos Aires will miss much of the rain and stress to crops should soon rise again as moisture from rain during the past weekend is lost to evaporation. The driest areas in southeastern Argentina will benefit from rain Monday into Tuesday with additional opportunities for rain Mar. 1-5 while much of the remainder of the country also receives rain Mar. 1-5.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field amid recent choppy trading. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close May prices above solid chart resistance at the February high of $4.43 3/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the January low of $4.26 1/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.37 3/4 and then at $4.40. First support is seen at last week’s low of $4.34 and then at $4.30.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 40% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 40% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: May soybeans rose 7 cents to $11.56, near the session high. May soybean meal rose $0.40 to $308.90, nearer the daily high. May soybean oil gained 101 points to 60.09, near the daily high and hit another contract high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and bean oil futures market today saw more technical buying, getting support from a rally in the crude oil futures market to an eight-month high amid rising U.S.-Iran tensions. Spreaders were again featured selling meal and buying bean oil today.
USDA at its Ag Outlook Conference today said it anticipates U.S. soybean acres to total 85.0 million acres, up from 81.2 million last year, with production of 4.45 billion bushels with a 53.0 bu. per acre trendline yield. USDA pegged demand at 4.464 billion bushels amid a rebound in exports and persistent gains in crush use. The numbers were close to market expectations.
World Weather Inc. today said dry weather in center-west and center-south Brazil during the weekend and early this week was ideal in maturing soybeans and promoting their harvest. Showers and thunderstorms should resume during the weekend and continue next week. Fieldwork will advance around the precipitation. Argentina received significant rain overnight in central parts of the nation and in a few interior southern areas. The moisture was welcome for improved soil and crop conditions. Additional rain will fall today and then drier weather will resume.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing May prices above solid resistance at the November high of $11.77 3/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $11.59 and then at $11.68. First support is seen at this week’s low of $11.41 and then at $11.30.
Soybean meal bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but need to show fresh power soon to keep it. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in May futures above solid technical resistance at $320.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of $292.70. First resistance comes in at $311.00 and then at last week’s high of $314.80. First support is seen at $305.00 and then at $302.00.
Bean oil bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing May prices above solid technical resistance at 61.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 57.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s contract high of 59.83 cents and then at 60.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 58.92 cents and then at Wednesday’s low of 57.88 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 50% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 50% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: May SRW rose 14 1/4 cents to $5.66 3/4, near the daily high and hit a three-month high. May HRW rose 15 cents to $5.76 3/4, near the daily high and hit a six-month high. May spring wheat futures rose 9 1/2 cents to $5.94 1/2, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets today saw solid technical buying interest amid price uptrends in place on the daily bar charts. There was also likely some better buying from the funds today, too, as the technical postures for winter wheat markets have turned significantly more bullish this week.
The USDA Ag Outlook Conference today pegged U.S. wheat acres will total 45.0 million, down modestly from 45.3 million in 2025-26. USDA anticipates production will total 1.86 billion bushels as yields will fall to 50.8 bu. per acre. Use is expected to fall to 1.978 billion bushels amid a drop in exports. The numbers were close to market expectations.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, two areas of mostly minor snowfall will move across parts of the region today through Friday. The snow will not have much of an effect on soil moisture, but will be important in Nebraska for protecting crops Friday morning from subzero Fahrenheit temperatures. The snow will be locally significant in the central part of Nebraska. Unusual warmth will return to the region next week and lead to some additional winter wheat development and loss of dormancy. Winterkill is not very likely over the next couple of mornings due to most temperatures just borderline cold enough to induce damage in the most important production region. In the Northern Plains, not much precipitation is expected in the next seven days. Temperatures will be unusually cold. A majority of the region is expected to drop below zero at some point within the first week of the outlook. Most areas are protected from winterkill. There are a few pockets that may be exposed, but concern of there being enough crop damage from this to have an effect on the markets is low. Most of the lowest temperatures will only be borderline cold enough for damage. Most likely if any damage occurred this winter is evolved during the late January and early February cold snap when multiple days of extremely cold weather occurred without snow on the ground in South Dakota and parts of Montana as well as Nebraska and northeastern Colorado.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and gained more strength today, amid price uptrends in place on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at $6.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.35. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.70 and then at the November high of $5.76 1/2. First support is seen at $5.58 3/4 and then at $5.50.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at $6.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.37 3/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.78 1/4 and then at $5.85. First support is seen at $5.66 3/4 and then at today’s low of $5.59 1/4.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: May cotton rose 38 points to 64.14 cents, near the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market today saw more short covering in a bear market.
USDA at its annual Ag Outlook Conference pegged U.S. cotton plantings at 9.4 million acres versus 9.28 million in 2025. Harvested acres are forecast at 7.63 million, with an estimated abandonment rate of 18.8%. Yield is forecast at 856 pounds per acre, for a 13.6 million-bale crop. U.S. exports were pegged by USDA at 12.2 million bales and a season-average farm price of 63 cents per pound.
World Weather Inc. today said south Texas and northeastern Mexico need rain to support planting in early March and a dry bias will prevail for at least another 10 days. West Texas also needs rain and not much will fall for a while. California cotton areas will experience a more frequent rain pattern for a while in this coming week while showers in the southwestern desert region are more limited. Light rain fell in the U.S. southeastern states during the weekend improving topsoil moisture for use in the spring. Dryness remains in the region’s subsoil and much more rain is needed to break drought conditions.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in May futures above technical resistance at 66.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 62.50 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 64.50 cents and then at 65.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 63.41 cents and then at the contract low of 62.86 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 20% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 20% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.