New Advice Alert:
Corn producers: Initiate 2026 crop sales... December futures rebounded following the report driven sell-off. Risk is elevated with an abundant U.S. balance sheet and potential for high acres in 2026. We feel it is prudent to begin establishing a floor for new-crop. There is unlikely to be a big catalyst until the March Prospective Plantings report. We advise corn hedgers and cash-only marketers to sell 10% of expected 2026-crop production to get to 10% priced. We will evaluate additional hedges if the market provides another opportunity over the coming weeks.
Soybean producers: Initiate 2026-crop sales... Risk remains abundant in soybeans as USDA once again lowered their export estimate. South American production estimates continue to increase as weather has been beneficial for crop development. Given potential for increasing trade tensions with top importer China, we advise soybean hedgers and cash-only marketers to sell 10% of expected 2026-production to get to 10% sold. We will look to establish floors on a price bounce.
Corn
Price action: March corn futures rose 2 1/4 cents to $4.22 and near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw tepid short covering today after hitting a five-month low on Tuesday. Higher crude oil prices that today hit a 3.5-month high also supported some buying interest in corn.
USDA today reported daily U.S. corn sales of 136,000 MT to South Korea during 2025-26. Meantime, ethanol production reached a record 1.196 million barrels per day (bpd) last week, while stocks reached a five-month high at 24.5 million barrels.
Trading action the rest of this week will be extra important for corn futures. A close on Friday near the weekly low would be ominously bearish for the market. However, a close in March corn well above the weekly low would begin to suggest a near-term market bottom is in place.
Corn traders will closely examine Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.
World Weather Inc. today said most crops in Brazil and Paraguay will see regular rounds of rain during the next two weeks that will maintain favorable soil moisture for crop development while fieldwork is slowed at times. The driest areas in northeastern Brazil will see little rain through Saturday and stress to crop may increase in eastern Bahia where soil moisture is mostly short before regular rounds of showers Sunday into next week induce some improvements in soil and crop conditions. Southern Brazil will see the least rain overall during the next two weeks, but with some rain expected and favorable soil moisture in place today, crop development should occur in a mostly favorable environment through the period. In Argentina, the driest areas in southern regions will benefit from regular rounds of showers through the next two weeks and although much of the rain is not likely to be heavy, enough rain should fall to prevent significant declines in crop and soil conditions and many areas should see net improvements in crop conditions during the period. Today’s forecast is drier for Jan. 22-24 than what was advertised Tuesday, but the showers advertised for Jan. 21-26 should prevent rapid drying and quick increases in crop stress. Favorable soil moisture in place today in central and northern Argentina and occasional rain during the next two weeks should maintain mostly favorable conditions for crop development through the period.
Technical analysis: Corn bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close March prices above solid chart resistance at $4.35. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the contract low of $4.10. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.25 and then at $4.30. First support is seen at this week’s low of $4.17 1/4 and then at $4.10.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 25% of 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 25% of 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: March soybeans rose 3 3/4 cents to $10.42 1/2, near mid-range. March soybean meal rose 30 cents to $291.90, nearer the daily low. March soybean oil lost 22 points to 50.98 cents, nearer the daily low after hitting a four-week high early on.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and meal futures markets saw some mild short covering today and got a little support from USDA reporting daily sales of 334,000 MT of U.S. soybeans to China during 2025-26.
China’s soybean imports in 2025 climbed to a record for a third straight year, up 6.5% to 112 million tons, according to data from China’s General Administration of Customs on Wednesday. Soybean crushers leaned heavily on Brazilian bean imports earlier in 2025, before reviving U.S. purchases after the trade agreement struck with the Trump administration last October.
Soybean traders are awaiting Thursday’s monthly NOPA crush report. Traders will also closely examine Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.
World Weather Inc. today said some rain in La Pampa and western Buenos Aires, Argentina overnight was welcome and brought temporary relief to dryness. Additional rain must fall throughout southern Argentina to stop the stress and potential decline in yield. Some additional showers are possible Thursday and again during the weekend, although resulting rainfall should be restricted. Additional opportunities for rain are advertised for Jan. 21-27. The other Argentine crops are in good conditions as timely rain is expected to continue. Brazil crops are rated well and should continue performing favorably because of a good mix of rain and sunshine over the next two weeks. A few drier pockets are unlikely to have a big impact on production potential. The northeastern states will be most closely monitored for dryness later this month.
Technical analysis: The soybean bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing March prices above solid resistance at this week’s high of $10.71 1/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of $10.28 1/2. First resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of $10.52 1/4 and then at $10.60. First support is seen at this week’s low of $10.37 3/4 and then at $10.28 1/2.
Soybean meal bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in March futures above solid technical resistance at $306.90. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of $282.10. First resistance comes in at $295.00 and then at $300.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $291.10 and then at $290.00.
Bean oil bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending up on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing March prices above solid technical resistance at the December high of 53.38 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the December low of 48.05 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 51.82 cents and then at 52.00 cents. First support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 50.15 cents and then at this week’s low of 49.80 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 30% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 30% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: March SRW rose 2 cents to $5.12 1/2 and nearer the session high. March HRW gained 2 3/4 cents to $5.22 1/4 and nearer the session high. March spring wheat futures rose 1/2 a cent to $5.67, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The HRW futures markets saw tepid short covering today. Higher crude oil prices that hit a 3.5-month high today also supported mild buying interest in wheat. Look for the winter wheat futures markets to take daily price direction from the corn market for the near term.
Farm office FranceAgriMer today cut its forecast for French soft wheat exports outside the European Union in 2025-26 to 7.5 MMT down from 7.6 MMT last month, but that’s still more than double the volume shipped in 2024-25.
Wheat traders will closely examine Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.
World Weather Inc. today said recent precipitation in U.S. hard red winter wheat areas and soft wheat areas of the Midwest improved soil moisture for some areas. There is still need for more precipitation, especially in the northwestern and far southwestern parts of hard red winter wheat areas and in the heart of the Midwest. Cooler weather in the Midwest will be good for winter crops while warming in the Plains will raise the need for another shot of colder weather soon. Meantime, bitter cold in western Russia and northeastern Europe will have no negative impact on winter crops because of significant snow cover. Drought in the Middle East, Morocco and Northwestern Algeria has been eased, although more rain is needed. Some of that needed moisture is expected to evolve in the next few weeks. Central and southern Tunisia and interior northeastern Algeria are driest today. France has seen some improved topsoil moisture as well and more precipitation is needed to end long term drought. Some of that moisture will be coming in the next week to 10 days.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage but trading has turned choppy and sideways at lower levels. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the December high of $5.44 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at $5.20 and then at this week’s high of $5.28. First support is seen at this week’s low of $5.07 and then at the contract low of $5.01 1/2.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at today’s high of $5.44 3/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $4.98 3/4. First resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of $5.27 1/4 and then at $5.36. First support is seen at $5.08 1/4 and then at $4.98 3/4.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton rose 11 points to 64.99 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market has paused the past couple days. Higher crude oil prices that today hit a 3.5-month high limited selling interest in cotton, as did a slightly weaker U.S. dollar index. Cotton traders will closely examine Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.
World Weather Inc. today said rain is needed in most of Texas and from Florida to the Carolinas and Virginia, as well as Arizona and southern California.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. However, the bulls are working on keeping alive price uptrend on the daily bar chart. They need to show more power soon to do so. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in March futures above technical resistance at 67.50 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of 63.68 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 65.25 cents and then at the January high of 65.76 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 64.47 cents and then at 64.26 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 20% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 20% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.