Corn
Price action: December corn futures fell 5 1/2 cents to $4.22 1/4, nearer the session low.
Fundamental analysis: After a promising end to corn futures trading last Friday, the bulls laid an egg today—mainly due to price-bearish non-threatening weather conditions over much of the Midwest U.S. Corn bulls got no help today from a slump in the U.S. dollar index.
World Weather Inc. today said Midwest U.S. weather conditions “should be generally favorable for summer crop development over the next two weeks, with a favorable mix of rain and sunshine.” The southwestern Corn Belt will be driest and a net drying bias is expected. The area will include eastern Kansas, portions of Missouri, southwestern Iowa and portions of Nebraska. “Rain should fall abundantly to the north and east. Temperatures will be seasonable with a slight warmer-than-usual bias.” The northeastern parts of the Midwest will cool down in the last days of July and early August, said the forecaster.
USDA this morning reported U.S. corn export inspections of 983,625 MT for the week ended July 17, which were down 330,677 MT from the previous week and short of the pre-report range of expectations at 1.1 MMT to 1.575 MMT.
This afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress report is expected to show the U.S. corn crop in 74% good to excellent conditions as of Sunday, unchanged from the same level last week and compares to 67% good to excellent last year at the same time.
Technical analysis: The corn futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage and regained some momentum today. Prices are in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at the July high of $4.42 1/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the contract low of $4.07 1/2. First resistance is seen at $4.25 and then at last week’s high of $4.30 1/4. First support is seen at $4.15 and then at $4.10.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 9 3/4 cents to $10.26 and near mid-range. September soybean meal fell $3.60 to $274.80, near the daily low. September soybean oil rose 24 points to 55.88 cents, near the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and meal futures markets saw selling pressure today from updated weather forecasts for the U.S. Midwest that see no serious weather threats to the soybean crop for at least the next two weeks. Bean bulls did not benefit from a steep drop in the U.S. dollar index to start the trading week, but it appears soybean oil futures did.
World Weather Inc. today said U.S. soybean crop weather “is not very threatening, although there will be some net drying during a portion of the forecast, which is not unusual during the heart of summer. No excessive heat or blocking ridge of high pressure is expected, although there will be some developing dryness in the southwest part of the Midwest and neighboring areas of the Delta.” A few days of net drying may firm the soil in parts of the Midwest, but as long as timely returns within a few days the impact should be low “and the bottom line for crops will remain favorable,” said the forecaster.
USDA reported U.S. soybean export inspections of 364,990 during the week ended July 17, up 213,644 MT from the previous week and near the upper-end of the pre-report range of 200,000 to 400,000 MT.
This afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress report is expected to show U.S. soybeans in 71% good to excellent conditions as of Sunday, compared to 70% in the same conditions last week and 68% one year ago at the same time.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls and bears are back on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at $10.60. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of $9.98 1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $10.34 1/4 and then at last week’s high of $10.43 1/4. First support is seen at $10.10 and then at $9.98 1/2.
Soybean meal bears have the solid near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in September futures above solid technical resistance at the July high of $285.40. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $268.70. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $279.70 and then at $285.40. First support is seen at $270.00 and then at the contract low of $268.70.
Bean oil bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing September prices above solid technical resistance at 58.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 52.50 cents. First resistance is seen at 56.00 cents and then at last week’s high of 56.99 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 54.79 cents and then at 54.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 65% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 65% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat fell 3 3/4 cents to $5.63 1/4, nearer the daily low. December HRW wheat fell 3 1/4 cents to $5.48 1/4, nearer the session low. December HRS fell 8 cents to $6.08 1/2.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw technical selling today, along with spillover price pressure from lower corn and soybean futures prices. Solid losses in the U.S. dollar index today provided no benefit to the wheat markets bulls.
World Weather Inc. today said wheat conditions in Canada “are a concern, with parts of the Prairies losing yield potential because of dryness. Some rain is projected for the region this week after some fell during the weekend and that will bring a little relief.” U.S. wheat production “seems poised to do well in the Midwest and northern Plains, but it was a tough year in the central Plains and dryland areas of the Pacific Northwest.”
USDA this morning reported U.S. wheat export inspections of 732,290 MT for the week ended July 17, up 287,659 MT from the previous week, which topped pre-report expectations ranging from 300,000 to 500,000 MT.
This afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress report is expected to show U.S. winter wheat harvest at 73% complete as of Sunday, versus 63% last week and 76% at the same time last year. U.S. spring wheat condition is seen at 55% good to excellent condition as of Sunday, compared to 54% last week and 77% in the same conditions one year ago at the same time.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, there are stiff chart support levels that lie just below present prices. The next upside price objective for the SRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $6.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.43 3/4. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $5.72 and then at $5.88 1/2. First support is seen at $5.60 and then at last week’s low of $5.52 3/4.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.85. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.38. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $5.61 1/2 and then at the July high of $5.73 1/4. First support is seen at $5.38 and then at $5.30.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton fell 58 points to 68.10 cents, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton market today saw spillover selling pressure coming from lower grain futures markets prices to start the trading week. Cotton bulls could not gain any traction despite a solid drop in the U.S. dollar index or a modest rally in the U.S. stock market.
World Weather Inc. today said Texas crop areas will experience warmer conditions and limited rainfall for a while. South Texas crops “would benefit from some rain, although it is getting a little late for a big change in production potential.” The U.S. Delta crops, like those in Texas, will likely dry down in the coming week, while temperatures trend warmer. “The environment may benefit cotton in many areas.”
Cotton traders will closely examine afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress report.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field amid sideways and choppy trading. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at the June high of 69.52 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the June low of 66.27 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 68.88 cents and then at last week’s high of 69.15 cents. First support is seen at 67.50 cents and then at the July low of 67.13 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 75% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 75% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.