Corn
Price action: March corn futures fell 2 3/4 cents to $4.45, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw a corrective pullback following two sessions in a row of decent price gains. A bit of a risk-off trading day in the general marketplace to start the trading week and month kept the corn market bulls mostly on the sidelines today.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. corn export inspections for export totaled 1.4 MMT for the week ended Nov. 27, down 274,424 MT from the previous week but above the pre-report range of 1.0 MMT to 1.25 MMT.
Ukraine’s grain exports decreased to 3.0 MMT, down from 3.6 MMT in November 2024, mostly due to smaller corn exports, according to economy ministry data.
World Weather Inc. today said that in Brazil, an improving trend for rain and conditions for crops will occur through the next two weeks in northern Brazil, where frequent rounds of rain are expected and notable improvements in soil moisture are likely. Central and southern Brazil and Paraguay will see a mix of rain and sunshine during the next two weeks, allowing fieldwork to advance well while soil moisture remains supportive of crop development. In Argentina, two rounds of timely rain and some showers during the next two weeks will help to ensure much of the country has enough soil moisture for crops to develop favorably, with continued exceptions in some of the drier areas of the west where recent rain was not great enough to induce lasting increases in soil moisture. Fieldwork should advance well during the next two weeks around the expected precipitation. Crop stress should rise in western Argentina when drier weather resumes Dec. 9-12 with a close watch warranted on rain advertised for Dec. 13-15, said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close March prices above solid chart resistance at the November high of $4.57. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at this week’s low of $4.34 1/2. First resistance is seen at $4.50 and then at $4.57. First support is seen at $4.40 and then at $4.37 1/2.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: January soybeans fell 9 3/4 cents to $11.28, near the session low. March soybean meal lost $4.70 to $319.50, near the daily low and hit a three-week low. March soybean oil rose 29 points to 52.84 cents, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: Soybean futures saw a downside price correction today. Worrisome for beans and meal is that meal futures today saw good follow-through selling pressure after posting a weaker close on Friday. Meal will be the market to watch this week. More weakness in meal would be an ominous near-term sign for soybeans, too. Spreaders were featured buying bean oil and selling meal futures today.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. soybean export inspections for export totaled 920,194 MT for the week ended Nov. 27, up 111,454 MT from the previous week and within the pre-report range of 800,000 MT to 1.25 MMT.
World Weather Inc. today said Brazil rainfall in soybean regions was restricted during the weekend and greater rain is needed to ensure the best possible crop development. Fieldwork advanced with little weather-related delay. Net drying is expected in southern Brazil during the coming 10 days, while timely rain falls in most other areas. Crop conditions should remain mostly good, although a close watch on southern Brazil soil moisture is going to be necessary as time moves along. Argentina rain during the weekend was great for northern Buenos Aires and from northern Cordoba through northern Santa Fe and southeastern Santiago del Estero. Net drying occurred in other crop areas and some of those drier areas are unlikely to get much rain this week, raising the need for a closer watch on mid-December rainfall to ensure continued good crop development conditions prevail.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing January prices above solid resistance at the November high of $11.69 1/2. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $11.42 1/4 and then at $11.50. First support is seen at $11.22 3/4 and then at $11.13 1/4.
March soybean meal bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading A price uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out and a bearish head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in March futures above solid technical resistance at the November high of $335.80. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $300.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $324.80 and then at $329.00. First support is seen at $317.50 and then at $315.00.
Bean oil bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing March prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of 54.40 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the November low of 49.24 cents. First resistance is seen at the November high of 53.29 cents and then at 54.00 cents. First support is seen at Friday’s low of 51.54 cents and then at 51.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: March SRW lost 3 1/2 cents to $5.35, nearer the daily low. March HRW fell 3/4 cent to $5.26 3/4, near mid-range. March spring wheat futures fell 2 cents to $5.76.
Fundamental analysis: Winter wheat markets today saw some modest technical selling pressure as their near-term technical postures favor the bears. Losses in corn and soybean futures markets also spilled over into some selling in winter wheat futures.
Wheat traders continue to monitor reports that progress has been made on a Ukraine-Russia peace deal. Any peace deal would likely mean more wheat being shipped out of the Black Sea region.
USDA reported weekly U.S. wheat export inspections totaled 384,881 MT, down 95,548 MT from the previous week and below the pre-report range of 400,000 to 600,000 MT.
Ukraine’s wheat harvest could rise to between 24 MMT and 25 MMT in 2026, up from 23 MMT in 2025, according to the Ukrainian deputy economy minister earlier today.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, not much precipitation is expected through the next seven days. Some snow will finish up in eastern areas today and then a lack of precipitation will follow for some time. Temperatures will be variable. Some subzero morning low temperatures are expected Thursday near the northeastern fringes of the region where there is protective snow cover. In the Northern Plains, occasional snow in the next seven days will add to the region’s growing snowpack and will be beneficial for soil moisture when it eventually melts. Below- to well-below-average temperatures will lead to more livestock stress.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending down on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the November high of $5.68. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.08 1/2. First resistance is seen at $5.45 and then at $5.50. First support is seen at last week’s low of $5.31 3/4 and then at $5.25.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the November high of $5.33 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $4.98 3/4. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $5.34 3/4 and then at $5.40. First support is seen at last week’s low of $5.19 1/2 and then at $5.10.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton fell 8 points to 64.63 cents, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures today saw a very mild downside correction after prices Friday hit a two-week high. Recent price action in March cotton begins to suggest the bears may be exhausted and that a near-term price bottom may be in place. However, bulls need to step up and show fresh power this week to better suggest such.
World Weather Inc. today said favorable harvest weather is likely in California, the U.S. southwestern desert region and West Texas. Fieldwork in the southeastern states may be disrupted periodically by rain. There is also some potential for partial relief from drought in the southeastern states.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in March futures above technical resistance at the October high of 67.57 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 63.00 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 64.95 cents and then at 65.50 cents. First support is seen at last week’s low of 63.89 cents and then at 63.50 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 15% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 15% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.