GRAIN CALLS
Corn: Steady to 2 cents higher.
Soybeans: 4 to 6 cents lower.
Wheat: SRW 2 to 4 cents lower; HRW 2 to 4 cents higher; spring wheat steady to 2 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat saw a volatile night of trade as the market digests the implications of U.S. involvement in Iran. Crude oil futures, which surged to an 8-month high, did little to spur lasting strength in the grain market. Concerns persist over aggravating U.S. allies on trade, which could hinder exports. The dollar surged overnight, rising over 900 points, supported by safe haven buying. The dollar looks to have put in a near-term bottom, indicating U.S. exports could continue to become relatively less competitive on the world market.
Latest on the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran: -- U.S.-Israeli strikes across the Middle East continue. Iran’s supreme leader killed. --Global stocks fell today, crude oil rallied, the U.S. dollar and gold advanced. --Kuwait said a number of U.S. fighter jets crashed. Crew members survived. --Iran claims it shot down a U.S. fighter jet. --Saudi Aramco halted its largest oil refinery after a nearby drone strike. --Iran won’t negotiate with the U.S., security chief says. --Israel bombed Beirut after Hezbollah group fired rockets and drones into Israel. --Trump: U.S. military campaign could last several weeks but ahead of schedule. --Dozens of oil tankers stranded in Persian Gulf as Strait of Hormuz all but closed.Click here for Pro Farmer Editor Bill Watts’s special report and a deeper dive on the matter, and its implications on ag markets.
Money markets scaled back wagers on interest-rate cuts in the U.S., U.K. and eurozone Monday as war in the Middle East sent oil prices spiking higher and fanned inflation fears. “The chance of the Federal Reserve reducing borrowing costs three times in 2026 has dropped to 20% from almost 50% last week, according to swaps tied to policy-meeting dates. Traders no longer expect the Bank of England to deliver three reductions this year and have lowered the probability of a cut in March to 60% from more than 80%. They have halved the odds of a European Central Bank rate cut this year, pricing just five basis points,” said a Bloomberg report. “U.S., U.K. and German two-year yields — which are among the most sensitive to changes in monetary policy — have risen more than longer maturities. That reflects a sharp jump in inflation gauges,” said the report.
“One month before Chinese President Xi Jinping and President Trump are set to convene at a much-touted summit in China, the U.S. leader’s toppling of another friend of China risks stoking tensions between the world’s biggest economies,” Bloomberg reported Sunday. After U.S. and Israeli military strikes on Iran wiped out the Islamic Republic’s Supreme Leader, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Sunday called it “unacceptable to openly kill the leader of a sovereign country and institute regime change.” Speaking by phone with his Russian counterpart, Wang warned that the U.S. president risked driving the Middle East into the “abyss.” Condemnation of Washington from China’s top diplomat stands out during a delicate period when officials on both sides are trying to steady relations before Trump arrives in Beijing on March 31. “Complicating that task, (Trump) has ousted two leaders with ties to Beijing in quick succession this year, after the U.S. in January snatched Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro,” said the report.
CORN: May corn futures hit a fresh high overnight. Resistance stands at $4.49 3/4, the 200-day moving average. A close above that mark opens the door for a test of resistance at $4.54. Support lies at $4.45 1/4 on a turn lower.
SOYBEANS: May soybeans hit a fresh high before reversing lower overnight. Support stands at $11.60 then $11.56 1/4, the 10-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $11.75 on a bounce.
WHEAT: May SRW futures saw a volatile night of trade. Prices spiked above $6.00, which remains key resistance, before turning lower. Support stands at $5.85 then $5.80 on persistent selling pressure.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/lower.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone in a continuation of last week’s selling pressure. Cash trade picked up at a steep premium to futures, which could limit continued selling pressure, though last week’s average won’t be released until late this morning. Bears now hold the technical advantage and bulls need a strong bounce to negate recent chart damage. Meanwhile, choice cutout continues to work higher, rising $1.95 to $379.84 Friday.
HOGS: Lean hogs are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone, though spillover selling from cattle could limit gains. Hog futures have shown resilience in the face of sharp losses in cattle, but last week’s uptrend stalled late in the week. The CME lean hog index is up another 32 cents to $89.44 as of Feb. 26. Pork cutout remains in the upper end of the recent range as well, rising 39 cents to $97.77 Friday, led by gains in bellies.