Corn
Price action: December corn futures rose 5 cents to $4.28, nearer the session high and hit a four-week high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw better speculator buying interest today as the near-term technical posture for December corn continues to improve. Gains in soybeans and wheat futures today again supported buying interest in corn. Sharply higher crude oil prices the past two days have been bullish for the grains.
The International Grains Council (IGC) kept its forecast for global corn production at 1.297 billion tons.
A Reuters poll showed analysts expected weekly U.S. corn export sales to have ranged from 800,000 MT to 2.0 MMT for the week ended Oct. 16. USDA’s weekly Export Sales Report was not released this week amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown.
World Weather Inc. today said U.S. corn harvest weather will advance around periodic rainfall over the next 10 days. No crop quality problems are expected because of periodic rain. Meantime, concern remains for some of Brazil’s crops due to some dryness that is prevailing. Improving rainfall will come in early November, but until then pockets of dryness will prevail. Southern Brazil first season corn planting and development are advancing well. Argentina will see a good mix of rain and sunshine to maintain a very good outlook for summer crop planting and early development during the next two weeks.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at the September high of $4.31 1/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the October low of $4.09 1/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.28 1/2 and then at $4.31 1/4. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.21 and then at this week’s low of $4.18 1/2.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: January soybeans rose 12 cents to $10.62, near the daily high and hit a five-week high. December soybean meal rose $2.30 to $292.30, near the daily high and hit a seven-week high. December soybean oil rose 80 points to 50.87 cents, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The soy complex futures markets today saw good speculator buying interest as the chart posture for January soybeans and December meal have gotten markedly more bullish this week. Sharply higher crude oil prices the past two days have been bullish for the soy complex futures.
Bean bulls were encouraged today by news China said Vice Premier He Lifeng plans to meet with U.S. officials in Kuala Lumpur from Oct. 24-27 for the next round of trade talks, according to Bloomberg.
A Reuters poll showed analysts expected U.S. soybean export sales ranged from 600,000 MT to 2.0 MMT during the week ended Oct. 16.
World Weather Inc. today said two rounds of rain will occur by the middle of next week, with eastern Kansas to Kentucky seeing rain Friday into Sunday before the northern, central, and eastern Midwest sees rain Monday into Wednesday. Fieldwork will be interrupted, but a combination of low soil moisture and rain that is rarely heavy should ensure delays to farming activity are temporary. Drier weather will resume Oct. 30-Nov. 5 and fieldwork should steadily accelerate. Temperatures will be not far from normal in most areas overall through the next week, with the northwestern Belt much warmer than normal Friday into Sunday.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and gained more power today. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing January prices above solid resistance at the August high of $10.81. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of $10.12 1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $10.62 1/4 and then at $10.72. First support is seen at today’s low of $10.49 3/4 and then at this week’s low of $10.37.
December soybean meal bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and have momentum. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at the August high of $300.10. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $275.00. First resistance comes in at $292.50 and then at $295.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $288.30 and then at Wednesday’s low of $285.40.
Bean oil bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of 53.88 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the September low of 48.89 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 51.46 cents and then at last week’s high of 51.77 cents. First support is seen at 50.00 cents and then at 49.68 cents.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW rose 9 1/4 cents to $5.13, near the session high and hit a two-week high. December HRW gained 11 1/2 cents to $5.00, near the daily high and hit a three-week high. December spring wheat futures gained 10 1/4 cents to $5.58, near the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets bulls showed signs of life today, as the good gains posted bullish upside “breakouts” from their recent sideways trading ranges. Key for the bulls now will be to show follow-through buying interest on Friday that would produce technically bullish weekly high closes, which would be clues that market bottoms are in place. Sharply higher crude oil prices the past two days have been bullish for the grains.
The International Grains Council (IGC) raised its forecast for 2025-26 global wheat production by 8 MMT to 827 MMT earlier today.
A Reuters poll indicated analysts expected weekly U.S. wheat export sales to have ranged from 350,000 to 650,000 MT for the week ended Oct. 16.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, a slow-moving upper-level low pressure system will still promote significant rainfall late today through Saturday in southeastern production areas of the region, especially central Oklahoma up into southeastern winter wheat areas of Kansas, and topsoil moisture in this part of the region will notably rise as a result. There will be some disruption to fieldwork. However, the rain will be more good than bad due to its benefits to newly planted winter wheat. Some lighter shower activity and drizzle will occur in most other areas. Some additional rain will then occur late Sunday into Monday, favoring northern production areas. The western high Plains region will need greater precipitation soon to support unirrigated wheat establishment. In the U.S. Northern Plains, conditions today into Sunday will continue to be great for late-season fieldwork to advance more due to dry weather and unusual warmth. A storm system will then impact the eastern half of the region late Sunday into Tuesday with mostly rain, which will cause some temporary late-season fieldwork disruption. Conditions for fieldwork in eastern areas should then improve again in the second week of the outlook, said World Weather.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, price downtrends on the daily bar charts are now in jeopardy. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.25. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $4.92 1/4. First resistance is seen at $5.20 and then at $5.25. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.02 1/2 and then at the contract low of $4.92 1/4.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at the September high of $5.24. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $4.77 1/4. First resistance is seen at $5.10 and then at $5.20. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.88 1/4 and then at the contract low of $4.77 1/4.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton rose 33 points to 64.07 cents, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: December cotton futures today saw some short covering and perceived bargain buying from the speculators. Sharply higher crude oil prices the past two days have been bullish for cotton. Gains in the U.S. stock indexes today were also a supportive outside-market element for the cotton futures market.
World Weather Inc. today said much of the next two weeks will be dry in Texas cotton country, with exceptions today into Saturday with rain and temporary interruptions to fieldwork in much of western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma. Then drier weather starting Sunday allows harvesting to resume and for some discolored cotton to be bleached white. Significant rain and beneficial increases in soil moisture occur in the Blacklands and the Coastal Bend Friday into Saturday with little rain during the remainder of the next two weeks in those regions or south Texas.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 5.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 66.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the contract low of 62.71 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 64.78 cents and then at 65.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 63.65 cents and then of 63.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.