Corn
Price action: March corn futures rose 3 1/4 cents to $4.47, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw more short covering and perceived bargain hunting today. The key outside markets were bullish for corn today, as the U.S. dollar index was lower and crude oil prices were higher.
USDA reported weekly U.S. corn export sales of 1.48 MMT for the week ending December 4th, coming in at the lower end of analyst expectations of 1.2 MMT to 2.4 MMT. The agency also released export inspections for the week ending December 18th showing 1.744 MMT of corn shipped, up slightly from last week’s 1.582 MMT, and in line with analyst expectations of 1 MMT to 2.2 MMT.
World Weather Inc. today said the two-week outlook for Brazil has not changed much since late last week and much of Brazil and Paraguay will see regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the period with enough rain to favorably support crop development while slowing fieldwork with exceptions in parts of northeastern Brazil. Bahia into northeastern Minas Gerais and Espirito Santo will see little rain through the middle of next week with some showers into today into Wednesday. In Argentina, regular rounds of rain will fall from Santiago del Estero and northern Cordoba to Corrientes during the next two weeks inducing further increases in soil moisture and allowing crops to develop favorably while conditions for fieldwork are often poor. Much of Santiago del Estero still has short to marginal soil moisture and the coming rain will be beneficial to crops. Central Cordoba to Entre Rios will not be as wet as areas to the north but enough rain will fall on the region to allow crops to develop favorably through the next two weeks while breaks between rounds of rain should allow fieldwork to advance. San Luis and southern Cordoba through La Pampa and Buenos Aires will dry down during the next two weeks as rain will be infrequent and mostly light and stress to crops should increase in the drier areas while fieldwork will advance well once fields dry down after rain during the past weekend.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close March prices above solid chart resistance at the December high of $4.57. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the November low of $4.34 1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.47 3/4 and then at $4.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.43 and then at $4.40.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: January soybeans rose 4 cents to $10.53 1/4, nearer the daily high. January soybean meal rose $1.00 to $298.30, nearer the session low and hit a seven-week low early on. January soybean oil rose 65 points to 48.55 cents, nearer the session high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean complex futures today saw some short covering following recent downside price pressure. The key outside markets were bullish for corn today, as the U.S. dollar index was lower and crude oil prices were higher.
Also price friendly for the complex, USDA today reported weekly U.S. soybean export sales of 1.552 MMT for the week ending December 4th, falling in the middle of analyst expectations that ranged from 800,000 MT to 2 MMT. Separately, USDA reported a flash sale of 396,000 MT of soybeans to China today, with 330,000 MT for delivery in the 2025/26 marketing year and the remaining 66,000 MT for delivery in 2026/27. U.S. export inspections for the week ending December 18th show 870,199 MT of U.S. soybeans shipped, up from 795,661 MT last week, and mid-range of analyst expectations from 800,000 to 1,000,000 MT.
World Weather Inc. today said favorable weather will continue in Argentina and much of Brazil during the next 10 days. There is some concern for dryness in the far southwest of Argentina in La Pampa and southwestern Buenos Aires. A new area of drying is expected in east-central and northeastern Brazil from Parana to Bahia this week, although the southern part of that region should get relief during the weekend and especially next week. Bahia and portions of northeastern Brazil will be closely monitored for some potential ongoing dryness. Timely rain will continue in other parts of Brazil. Warmer-than-usual weather is likely this week in the driest areas of Brazil.
Technical analysis: The soybean bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing January prices above solid resistance at $11.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of $10.12 1/2. First resistance is seen at $10.67 1/2 and then at last week’s high of $10.80. First support is seen at last week’s low of $10.47 and then at $10.40.
Soybean meal bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in January futures above solid technical resistance at the December high of $319.60. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $290.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $300.60 and then at $305.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $297.00 and then at $295.00.
Bean oil bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing January prices above solid technical resistance at 51.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of 46.75 cents. First resistance is seen at 49.00 cents and then at 49.50 cents. First support is seen at last week’s low of 47.79 cents and then at 47.50 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: March SRW rose 5 3/4 cents to $5.15 1/2, nearer the daily high. March HRW rose 6 cents to $5.21 1/4, nearer the session high. March spring wheat futures rose 2 cents to $5.80, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets today saw short covering and perceived bargain hunting. News that weekend Russian attacks have damaged Ukrainian grain infrastructure in Black Sea ports was also price-friendly for wheat today.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat export sales of 381,500 MT for the week ending December 4th, on the lower end of analyst expectations that ranged from 300,000 MT to 600,000 MT. USDA also reported weekly export inspections for the week ending December 18th, showing 627,443 MT of U.S. wheat shipped, up from 488,025 MT the week prior, and firmly above analyst estimates of 200,000 to 400,000 MT.
SovEcon estimates Russia’s wheat exports in the month of December at 3.9 million tons, down from 4.8 million tons last month, but up half a million tons compared to last December.
World Weather Inc. today said wheat crop conditions in most of the world are favorable. Crops in the Northern Hemisphere are largely dormant or semi-dormant. Sufficient snow cover was and will continue to be present to protect crops in most of North America and Asia in areas where temperatures might be a threat. Drought has been a concern in the Middle East, Morocco and Northwestern Algeria; although each of these areas has received some rain that has provided some temporary relief. More precipitation will be needed, though. Precipitation and/or soil moisture in most other winter crop areas around the world are rated favorably; although timely spring rainfall will be imperative for eastern China, France, eastern Spain, the U.S. central and southern Plains and across Canada’s Prairies. India will need some timely rain in January and February to ensure the best potential yield.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending down on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the December high of $5.44 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at $5.20 and then at last week’s high of $5.29 1/2. First support is seen at the contract low of $5.04 and then at $5.00.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the December high of $5.36 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $4.98 3/4. First resistance is seen at $5.25 and then at $5.35. First support is seen at $5.10 and then at last week’s low of $5.03.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton fell 14 points to 63.61 cents, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures mostly paused today. Technicals remain firmly bearish, including a price downtrend in place on the daily bar chart. Disappointing export demand for U.S. cotton will also likely limit the upside for futures in the near term. USDA today reported weekly export sales for the week of Dec. 4, with cotton export sales of 153,600 running bales, which compares to 136,000 running bales in the week of Nov. 27. Cotton bulls got no help today from bullish outside-market forces that included a lower U.S. dollar index and higher crude oil prices.
World Weather Inc. today said recent dry conditions in California, the southwestern desert region and southwestern Plains have been good for late season harvesting and routine field operations. U.S. harvesting should be virtually complete and the focus of weather needs during the winter should be on soil moisture replenishment from California to Texas and in parts of the southeastern states. Cotton conditions in West Africa are rated favorably with harvest progress advancing relatively well. Not much change is anticipated. Late season cotton in southern India continues to develop and soil moisture is rated favorably in many areas. Drier weather of late in southern India should be supporting some early maturation and harvesting. Most of the late season crop harvest occurs through January and sometimes into February. Australia’s cotton crop would benefit from rain especially in western unirrigated areas where dryness is still of some concern. Irrigated crops should be performing well as are some of the dryland crops produced in the east. Argentina planting conditions have not been ideal this season; though, progress is being made. Fieldwork is notably behind the usual pace and some heavy rain expected in the far northeast early this week will setback fieldwork again in parts of Chaco, northern Santa Fe and a few neighboring areas.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in March futures above technical resistance at 65.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 62.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 64.00 cents and then at last week’s high of 64.53 cents. First support is seen at the contract low of 62.97 cents and then at 62.50 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 15% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 15% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.