Corn
Price action: December corn futures fell 2 cents to $4.24 1/4, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw some chart consolidation at mid-week. Bulls recently have shown just enough power to keep just barely alive a price uptrend on the daily bar chart for December futures. Gains in corn were limited by a solidly higher U.S. dollar index today.
Bulls received little help from USDA today reporting 312,956 MT of U.S. corn sales for delivery to Mexico during the 25/26 marketing year.
World Weather Inc. today said portions of Matto Grosso, Brazil have received some rainfall, which will boost soil moisture for planting of the first corn crop. The forecaster said it was not enough precipitation to cause substantial fieldwork delays.
Traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls have the slight near-term technical advantage. A five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out but is still barely alive. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $4.31 1/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.14. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.27 1/2 and then at $4.31 1/4. First support is seen at this week’s low of $4.18 1/4 and then at $4.14.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 3 cents to $10.09, nearer the daily low. December soybean meal fell $1.20 cents to $276.10, near the daily low and hit another seven-week low. December soybean oil fell 4 points to 49.84 cents, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean complex bulls are trying to stabilize prices but the bleeding soybean meal market remains a major bearish anchor on the complex. A stronger U.S. dollar index today was a daily negative outside-market element for beans but that was somewhat offset by higher crude oil prices.
Reports overnight said China has more bookings of Argentina soybeans than what was reported Tuesday. Originally 10 cargoes carrying approximately 650,000 MT were reported. However, that purchase has now doubled to a total of 20 cargoes, or roughly 1.3 MMT of soybeans.
USDA today reported 101,400 MT of U.S. soybean cake and meal sales to Guatemala for delivery during the 25/26 marketing year.
World Weather Inc. today said that most of the Midwest will start to dry out later this week, and delays to harvest should be minimal over the next 10 days after the rain has moved out.
Traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.
Technical analysis: The soybean bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at the September high of $10.52 3/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $10.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $10.25 and then at $10.35. First support is seen at this week’s low of $10.05 and then at $10.00.
Soybean meal bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as a price downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at $290.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $272.60. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $279.30 and then at this week’s high of $284.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $276.00 and then at $272.60.
Bean oil bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at 52.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of 46.55 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 50.77 cents and then at 51.34 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 48.89 cents and then at 48.00 cents.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat fell 1 cent to $5.19 1/2, near the session low. December HRW fell 4 3/4 cents to $5.06 3/4, near the daily low. December spring wheat futures were unchanged at $5.67 3/4.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw some consolidation and corrective selling pressure after decent gains posted Tuesday. Weaker corn and soybeans today, and a stronger U.S. dollar index, also limited buying interest in wheat.
World Weather Inc. today said that frequent rain so far this month in the central U.S. has bolstered soil moisture and slowed early season planting in wheat production areas. “However, the moisture has set the stage for aggressive seeding, germination and emergence over the next couple of weeks as drier weather evolves over the region.” Aggressive planting early this year is prescribed to get crops in the ground and established well prior to the possible influence of La Nina’s drier bias that may evolve later this season. The moisture is also supporting improved livestock grazing conditions, said the forecaster.
Traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Price downtrends are in place on the daily charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $5.35 3/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $5.23 and then at $5.30. First support is seen at today’s contract low of $5.07 1/4 and then $5.00.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $5.24. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $4.80. First resistance is seen at $5.15 and then at $5.19. First support is seen at the contract low of $4.97 1/2 and then at $4.90.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton fell 47 points to 66.17 cents, near the daily low and closed at a nearly three-week low close.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton market was pressured today by a stronger U.S. dollar index and some mild pressure on the U.S. stock indexes. Generally weaker grain futures prices at mid-week were also negative for the cotton futures market. Higher crude oil prices today did keep the cotton bears from getting too aggressive on the sell side.
World Weather Inc. says warm temperatures and limited rainfall in west Texas will help the development of cotton. Cotton in the Blacklands will be dry enough to support crop maturation and harvesting, although some showers will occur infrequently. Harvesting in other areas of Texas to the south will advance well around any spotty showers as well, said the forecaster.
Traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at last week’s high of 67.84 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the September low of 65.80 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 66.69 cents and then at this week’s high of 67.02 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 66.03 cents and then at 65.80 cents.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.