Corn
Price action: July corn rose 1/4 cent to $4.38 3/4, ending near the session low.
Fundamental analysis: Corn futures were able to mildly extend Tuesday’s modest strength, bolstered by seemingly decided gains in both the soy complex and wheat futures as global production woes have resurfaced. A weaker U.S. dollar was also supportive, though technical resistance and looming trade uncertainty continued to limit earnest buying interest. However, demand for U.S. corn continues to prove quite strong as it remains competitively priced on the global marketplace. Exports from Ukraine are expected to fall 50% from last month as it remains uncompetitive compared to its U.S. equivalent, according to producers’ union UAC.
Moreover, export demand for ethanol continues to also lean supportive, with U.S. ethanol exports expected to set a new annual record in 2025. Earlier today, the Energy Information Administration reported weekly ethanol production averaged 1.105 million barrels per day (bpd) during the week ended May 30, up 49,000 bpd (4.6%) from last week and 33,000 bpd (3.1%) above the same week last year. Ethanol stocks rose 159,000 barrels to 24.44 million barrels.
USDA will release its weekly export sales data early Thursday morning, with analysts expecting net corn sales to have ranged from 775,000 MT to 1.4 MMT during the week ended May 29. Last week, net sales of916,712 MT were reported for the previous week.
Technical analysis: July corn futures ended the session near the daily low as technical resistance at the 20-and 10-day moving averages, trading at $4.48 3/4 and $4.50 continue to ward off buyers. Bears continue to grasp the near-term technical advantage and will look to take out Tuesday’s low of $4.34 ¼, though additional support at $4.30 1/4 and $4.26 should continue to limit seller momentum. However, a move above the 20- and 10-day moving averages, will face additional resistance from the 200-, 40- and 100-day moving averages, layered at $4.62 1/4, $4.64 1/2and $4.77 1/2.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans rose 4 1/4 cents to $10.45, near mid-range. July soybean meal rose $2.60 to $297.10, nearer the daily high. July soybean oil closed steady at 46.81 cents, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: Soybeans and meal saw some short-covering buying today, led by strength in meal. Meal is showing technical signs of a market bottom, which is what the soybean bulls need to get better traction. A weaker U.S. dollar index today was also friendly for soybeans, but was somewhat offset by weaker crude oil prices. Also, risk appetite in the general marketplace is far from robust, which is limiting buying interest in grain futures.
World Weather Inc. today said wet weather in the U.S. Plains, Midwest and Delta over the coming week “will not be welcome for many areas, although crops will handle the situation well. The biggest concern is for crop areas in the lower Midwest and northern Delta where planting has either not been completed and/or crops are not in very good shape because of persistent wet conditions.” Meantime, southern portions of center- south Brazil will receive additional rain over the coming week that will further bolster soil moisture. Center-west Brazil crop areas will not see much moisture and crop stress is expected to increase. Argentina will see drier weather for a while, supporting good or improving harvest conditions. Portions of eastern Argentina have been too wet and are drying down, said World Weather.
Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report is expected to show U.S. soybean sales of 100,000 to 500,000 MT for the 2024-25 marketing year, and sales of zero to 100,000 MT for the 2025-26 marketing year.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field amid recent choppy trading. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing July prices above solid resistance at the May high of $10.82. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $10.20. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $10.53 and then at $10.65. First support is seen at today’s low of $10.37 3/4 and then at this week’s low of $10.32 1/2.
For July soybean meal, a bullish double-bottom reversal pattern and rounding-bottom reversal pattern have formed on the daily bar chart to suggest a market bottom is in place. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in July futures above solid technical resistance at the April high of $308.10. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $289.70. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $298.80 and then at $300.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $293.20 and then at $290.00.
Bean oil bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing July prices above solid technical resistance at 50.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 44.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 47.42 cents and then at 48.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 46.43 cents and then at this week’s low of 45.74 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 65% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 65% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW futures climbed 7 1/4 cents to $5.43 1/4 and closed nearer session highs. July HRW futures firmed 3 3/4 cents to $5.40 1/2, near mid-range. July HRS futures climbed 5 1/2 cents to $6.23 1/2.
Fundamental analysis: Winter wheat posted impressive gains today, breaking above downtrend technical resistance and posting a bullish breakout that will need to be confirmed by followthrough strength later this week. World production and geopolitics have been price supportive with reports actively flowing for both those topics. China production looks to shrink, as reported by Bloomberg due to persistent drought scorching major growing regions in the north. Wheat production could shrink by as much as 5% in 2025 to the lowest output in seven years. Krasnodar Governor Veniamin Kondratyev instructed officials to consider declaring a state of emergency due to dry weather in northern parts of the region, according to SovEcon. Krasnodar is one of the largest wheat growing regions in Russia. The Russia-Ukraine conflict is heating up as well with little end in sight.
Attention will remain on the northern Plains as spring wheat conditions remain poor. The need for rain in Montana is growing as crop stress will increase over the course of the next week, says World Weather Inc. A favorable mix of rain and sunshine is expected in areas further east towards North Dakota over the next couple of weeks.
USDA will release the weekly Export Sales report tomorrow morning for the week ended May 29, just before the end of the marketing year. A Reuters poll shows expectations for wheat sales to total (200,000) to 100,000 MT for 2024-25 and 300,000 to 800,000 MT for 2025-26. Last week, sales totaled (128,797) MT and 711,368 MT, respectively.
Technical analysis: July SRW futures saw impressive gains today, closing above the 40-day moving average for the first time in a couple weeks. Bulls maintain a modest technical advantage and are looking to overcome resistance at this week’s high of $5.49 1/2 on continued strength. Above that, bulls are eyeing the May 21 high of $5.56 1/4. Support comes in at $5.36 on a reversal lower, which is reinforced by support at yesterday’s low of $5.31 3/4.
July SRW futures saw weaker gains today, failing to topple 40-day moving average resistance. That stands as bulls initial target at $5.43, which is backed by the psychological $5.50 mark. Support comes in at $5.34 on a reversal back lower.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop production. You should be 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop production. You should be 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton fell 106 points to 64.99 cents, nearer the session low.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market continues to languish at lower price levels amid sideways and choppy trading. Expect more of the same in the near term. Cotton bulls got no help from a lower U.S. dollar index today, as weaker crude oil prices offset the cotton-price-friendly lower greenback on this day. Risk appetite in the general marketplace remains tepid, which continues to limit speculator buying interest in cotton futures.
World Weather Inc. today said west Texas shower and thunderstorm activity “will be welcome during the next week to 10 days, with most areas impacted at one time or another. The precipitation will greatly improve crop and field conditions for planting and establishment.” Field conditions in the Delta are too wet and more rain is expected in the north over the next 10 days “that will maintain concern over crop conditions with some planting to remain incomplete.” Portions of the southeastern U.S. will get rain in the coming week with coastal areas of the Carolinas and a part of eastern Georgia wettest. Much of Florida will also get significant rain while the interior crop areas of the southeastern states may not get as much moisture, said World Weather.
Cotton traders will closely examine Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report. Shipments have been decent lately but the sales numbers need to improve in order for cotton futures to break out of the trading range at lower price levels.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in July futures above technical resistance at 68.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the March low of 63.80 cents. First resistance is seen at 66.00 cents and then at this week’s high of 66.70 cents. First support is seen at the May low of 64.51 cents and then at 64.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.