Corn
Price action: March corn futures rose 2 1/4 cents to $4.46 1/2, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market continues to languish in a tight trading range, bound by the December low of $4.41 3/4 and the December high of $4.52 1/4. Corn bulls got some help today from the Fed cutting interest rates and leaning easier than expected on its monetary policy, which sunk the U.S. dollar index to a six-week low today.
USDA today reported daily sales of 186,000 MT of U.S. corn to unknown destinations during 2025-26. The agency also reported weekly U.S. corn export sales of 2.38 MMT for the week ended Nov. 13, above the average pre-report range of 800,000 MT to 2.0 MMT.
World Weather Inc. today said that in Brazil frequent rain and continued improvements in soil moisture and conditions for crops will occur through the next two weeks across central and northern regions, where fieldwork will be slowed. Exceptions will occur in central and eastern Bahia where little rain is expected through Dec. 20 before a beneficial increase in showers and thunderstorms occurs Dec. 21-25. Most of southern Brazil and Paraguay will see additional rain into Sunday slowing fieldwork before rain becomes less frequent Tuesday into Dec. 22 when conditions for fieldwork improve while soil moisture should be great enough to favorably support crop development. Rio Grande do Sul will miss much of the rain into Sunday, but soil moisture in place and at least some rain next week and Dec. 23-25 will ensure crop conditions remain favorable. In Argentina, rain during the next two weeks will be infrequent enough in most areas to allow fieldwork to advance well around the precipitation while much of the country dries down overall. Much of Argentina has adequate soil moisture in place to support crop development through the next two weeks, with some exceptions in the southwest where soil moisture is already short and where stress to crops should rise until greater rain falls.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close March prices above solid chart resistance at the November high of $4.57. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the November low of $4.34 1/2. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $4.49 and then at $4.57. First support is seen at last week’s low of $4.41 3/4 and then at $4.35.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: January soybeans rose 2 1/4 cents to $10.93 1/2, nearer the daily high. January soybean meal gained 90 cents to $302.10, near mid-range. January soybean oil fell 27 points to 50.82 cents, near mid-range and hit a two-week low.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean market saw some mild short covering today and meal futures paused. The bulls were disappointed that a lower U.S. dollar index that today hit a six-week low, along with a Fed rate cut, did not provide better support to the soy complex.
USDA today reported daily sales of 264,000 MT of U.S. soybeans to China and 226,000 MT to unknown destinations, each for delivery during 2025-26. The agency also reported weekly U.S. soybean export sales of 695,600 MT for the week ended Nov. 13, which were near the low-end of the pre-report range of 600,000 MT to 1.4 MMT.
Conab lowered Brazil’s 2025-26 soybean production forecast by 550,000 MT earlier today to 177.12 MMT, which would still be a record if realized.
China’s state stockpiler Sinograin sold most of the soybeans it offered in an auction of state reserves, according to traders earlier today, making room for an expected influx of U.S. cargoes.
World Weather Inc. today said favorable weather is expected in most of Brazil and northern and central Argentina over the next two weeks, maintaining very good crop development potential. Southern Argentina is expected to dry out but some timely rain may return again later in the month to prevent stress from becoming a serious threat to production.
Technical analysis: The soybean bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing January prices above solid resistance at the December high of $11.42 1/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $10.50. First resistance is seen at $11.00 and then at this week’s high of $11.07 1/2. First support is seen at this week’s low of $10.81 1/2 and then at $10.70.
Soybean meal bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in January futures above solid technical resistance at the December high of $319.60. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $300.00. First resistance comes in at Tuesday’s high of $307.20 and then at this week’s high of $308.90. First support is seen at this week’s low of $298.70 and then at $295.00.
Bean oil bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing January prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of 54.40 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the November low of 48.66 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 51.71 cents and then at 52.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 50.42 cents and then at 50.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: March SRW rose 4 cents to $5.33 1/2, nearer the session high. March HRW lost 1 cent to $5.22 1/4, near midsession and hit a six-week low. March spring wheat futures rose 1 1/4 cents to $5.76 1/2, near mid-range for the day.
Fundamental analysis: The SRW wheat markets today saw some short covering, while HRW saw mild technical selling pressure from the speculators. The near-term chart postures for SRW and HRW remain bearish. A drop in the U.S. dollar index to a six-week low today also limited selling interest in the wheat futures markets.
USDA today reported upbeat weekly U.S. wheat export sales of 850,400 MT for the week ended Nov. 13, which were well above the expected pre-report range of 200,000 to 600,000 MT.
World Weather Inc. today said wheat crop conditions in most of the world are favorable. Crops in the Northern Hemisphere are largely dormant or semi-dormant. Sufficient snow cover will be present to protect crops in most of North America and Asia in areas where temperatures might be a threat. Drought has been a concern in the Middle East, Morocco and Northwestern Algeria; although each of these areas either has received some rain or soon will and that will provide some temporary relief. More precipitation will be needed, though. Precipitation and/or soil moisture in most other winter crop areas around the world are rated favorably--although timely spring rainfall will be imperative for eastern China, France, eastern Spain, the U.S. central and southern Plains and across Canada’s Prairies. India will need some timely rain in January and February to ensure the best potential yield.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending down on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at $5.50. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.08 1/2. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $5.40 and then at last week’s high of $5.44 1/2. First support is seen at this week’s low of $5.25 1/4 and then at $5.15.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the November high of $5.53 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $4.98 3/4. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $5.33 and then at last week’s high of $5.36 1/2. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.18 3/4 and then at $5.10.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton fell 15 points to 63.97 cents, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw mild technical selling featured today. Cotton bulls were disappointed their market did not react positively to the Fed rate cut and the Fed leaning more dovish than expected on its monetary policy—which sunk the U.S. dollar index to a six-week low today. However, lower crude oil prices did work in favor of the cotton bears.
USDA today reported weekly U.S. cotton export sales for the week of Nov. 13 at 187,600 running bales. Shipments were reported at 113,200 running bales.
World Weather Inc. today said recent dry conditions in California, the southwestern desert region and southwestern Plains have been good for late-season harvesting and routine field operations. Recent rain in the southeastern U.S. eased long term dryness for better field conditions in the spring. Any late-season harvesting left in the southeastern U.S. may be slow to be completed, but progress is expected. Globally, cotton conditions in West Africa are rated favorably with harvest progress advancing relatively well. India and Pakistan harvest weather this year was mostly good, although there were a few bouts of rain delay and concern. Southern India cotton continues to develop and soil moisture is rated favorably in many areas. Australia’s cotton crop would benefit from rain in western, dryland, production areas where recent hot and dry conditions may have slowed some development. Eastern crop areas are suspected of being in mostly good shape. ABARE recently reported a 22% decline in area planted to cotton this year.
Argentina planting conditions have not been ideal this season; though, progress is being made. Planting in Chaco was 86% done last week. Some improved rainfall has occurred recently and more is desired. Many of the crops were rated favorably, according to the Argentina Ag Ministry.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in March futures above technical resistance at 66.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the November low of 63.11 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 64.53 cents and then at 64.95 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 63.55 cents and then at 63.11 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 15% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 15% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.