Corn
Price action: July corn futures rose 5 3/4 cents to $4.69 1/4, near the daily high and hit a four-week high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw short covering and technical buying featured today. Solid gains in soybeans and winter wheat futures markets today also supported buying interest in corn.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. corn export inspections totaled 1.64 MMT during the week ended April 3, down 98,747 MT from the previous week. Net inspections were within the pre-report range of 1.3 to 1.89 MMT.
Brazil’s planned increase in the mandatory ethanol blend in gasoline to 32% from 30% is set to boost annual demand for ethanol by 1 billion liters. The higher blend is expected to raise the share of sugarcane processed into biofuel and support an already strong expansion of corn-based ethanol.
This afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports are expected to show U.S. corn planting at 23% complete as of Sunday, compared to 11% one week ago and 24% complete one year ago.
World Weather Inc. today said today’s forecast for the U.S. Midwest is wetter overall than what was advertised late last week and regular rounds of rain will impact most of the region through the period, maintaining moist soils while slowing planting. However, most of the rain will not be heavy and some fieldwork should advance during the drier days. The west-central and northwestern Corn Belt will be driest and will see fieldwork advance well while follow-up rain will be needed in the drier areas where rain during the past weekend did not fully restore the soil moisture. Frost and freezes will occur regularly during the next week in the northwestern Corn Belt and will extend from northern Iowa and Wisconsin to Michigan and northern and parts of central Ohio Friday into Sunday. The few summer crops that have emerged in this region will likely be burned back with temperatures not likely cold enough to cause permanent crop damage. Meantime, southern Safrinha corn areas in Brazil will get some needed rain this week easing dryness for “some” areas. Follow up rain will be very important. Some drying will continue in southeastern Mato Grosso, Goias and northeastern Mato Grosso do Sul, though these areas have at least some moisture to carry on crop development for a while, said World Weather.
Technical analysis: Corn market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and gained more strength today as prices are trending up. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close July prices above solid chart resistance at $4.80. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.55. First resistance is seen at $4.75 and then at $4.80. First support is seen at $4.65 and then at today’s low of $4.62 1/2.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans rose 13 1/2 cents to $11.92, nearer the daily high and closed at a six-week high close. July soybean meal rose $8.70 to $327.80, nearer the daily high. July soybean oil gained 34 points to 71.67 cents, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean market today saw short covering and perceived bargain hunting as bulls are again working on producing a technically bullish upside “breakout” from a sideways trading range on the daily bar chart. Gains in corn and winter wheat futures today also provided buying support for beans and meal.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. soybean export inspections totaled 628,826 MT during the week ended April 23, down 127,887 MT from the previous week. Net inspections were within the expected pre-report range of 500,000 to 930,000 MT.
This afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports are expected to show U.S. soybean planting at 22% complete as of Sunday, compared to 12% one week ago and 18% complete one year ago.
World Weather Inc. today said soybean planting in the U.S. will slow down in the heart of the Midwest and Delta this week because of rain and cooler temperatures. Drought in the southeastern states will remain, although some rain is expected later in the week.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have gained the overall near-term technical advantage. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing July prices above solid resistance at the April high of $12.01 1/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of $11.56 3/4. First resistance is seen at $12.01 1/4 and then at $12.10. First support is seen at today’s low of $11.76 3/4 and then at $11.68.
Soybean meal bulls today gained the overall near-term technical playing advantage. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in July futures above solid technical resistance at the April high of $335.60. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $315.70. First resistance comes in at $330.00 and then at $335.60. First support is seen at $325.00 and then at $320.00.
Bean oil bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. A price uptrend remains alive on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing July prices above solid technical resistance at 74.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 65.35 cents. First resistance is seen at the April high of 72.64 cents and then at 73.00 cents. First support is seen at 70.00 cents and then at 69.11 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $11.60 strike November puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW rose 13 cents to $6.29 3/4, near the daily high and hit a four-week high. July HRW gained 5 1/2 cents to $6.75 1/4, nearer the daily high. July spring wheat futures rose 1 1/4 cents to $6.94 1/2.
Fundamental analysis: The HRW wheat futures markets today saw resumed technical buying interest after last Friday’s corrective pullback. Good gains in corn, soybean and meal futures today also supported the winter wheat bulls.
Weather leans bullish for wheat—especially HRW. World weather today said that in U.S. HRW country, an important rain event is likely in southwestern production areas Thursday into early Saturday. This should provide enough rain for some increase in topsoil moisture. The soil moisture increase might be significant; though, there is some uncertainty as to if the heaviest rain occurs in the Texas Panhandle or farther south in the West Texas region. Regardless of this though, some improvement is likely. A general need for more rain will continue. Freezes in northwestern production areas will likely burn-back some more winter wheat. In the Northern Plains, shower activity in the next seven days will be mostly light. However, temperatures will be unusually cool and warmer weather would be ideal for helping to stimulate some new crop development.
USDA reported weekly U.S. wheat export inspections totaled 365,156 MT during the week ended April 23, down 152,985 MT. Net inspections were within analysts’ expected pre-report range of 200,000 to 450,000 MT.
This afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports are expected to show the U.S. winter wheat crop in 29% good to excellent condition as of Sunday, versus 30% last week and 49% in the same condition one year ago.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage and gained more strength today. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at the March high of $6.49 3/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of $5.77 3/4. First resistance is seen at $6.36 and then at $6.49 3/4. First support is seen at today’s low of $6.17 and then at $6.10.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at $7.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of $5.98 3/4. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $6.86 1/2 and then at $7.00. First support is seen at $6.65 and then at $6.50.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton futures rose 22 points to 79.58 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: July cotton futures today saw some renewed technical buying today after recent profit-taking pressure. Higher crude oil prices, along with the major U.S. stock indexes hitting new record highs overnight, also supported some buying interest in cotton, as did rallies in the grain futures markets to start the trading week.
Cotton traders will closely scrutinize this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress report on the planting progress for U.S. cotton.
World Weather Inc. today said south Texas and northeastern Mexico experienced showers recently and those should help improve dryland crop development, though much more rain is needed. Both areas will continue to experience sporadic rain that is much lighter than usual. West Texas will see some improving opportunity for rain later this week and into the weekend. Both southern California and Arizona would benefit from additional moisture, but not much is expected for a while. The Delta received some welcome rain during the weekend and more is expected in waves over this coming week. The southeastern U.S. will continue in drought this week, despite the development of some showers and thunderstorms that will offer temporary relief.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still trending higher on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in July futures above technical resistance at the April high of 81.79 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 75.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 80.53 cents and then at 81.00 cents. First support is seen at 79.00 cents and then at 78.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 90% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You are 40% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time
Cash-only marketers: You are 90% sold on 2025-crop. You are 40% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.