Corn
Price action: December corn futures fell 4 1/4 cents to $4.18, near the session low.
Fundamental analysis: The trader mantra in the corn market at present is that “rain makes grain” and that rain is making for a very good-looking U.S. corn crop. Corn traders so far this week have brushed aside the corn-price friendly aspect of a weakening U.S. dollar index.
USDA on Monday afternoon rated the corn crop as 74% “good” to “excellent” as of Sunday, unchanged from the previous week. The “poor” to “very poor” rating rose one point to 6%. On the Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 representing perfect), the corn crop improved 1.7 points to 385.1, which was 11.7 points above last year’s rating for the same period.
Weather in the U.S. Midwest continues to lean price-bearish for corn. World Weather Inc. today said weather conditions “should be generally favorable for summer crop development over the next two weeks, with a favorable mix of rain and sunshine.” The southwestern Corn Belt will be driest and a net drying bias is expected. The area will include eastern Kansas, portions of Missouri, southwestern Iowa and portions of Nebraska. Rain should fall periodically to the north and east; although some areas of net drying are expected. Temperatures will be seasonable with a slight warmer than usual bias. The northeastern parts of the Midwest will cool down in the last days of July and early August, said World Weather.
AgRural reported 55% of the safrinha crop has been harvested as of last Thursday, which compares to 82% last year.
Technical analysis: The corn futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage and regained momentum this week. Prices are in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $4.30 1/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the contract low of $4.07 1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.24 3/4 and then at $4.30 1/4. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.16 3/4 and then at $4.10.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 3/4 cent to $10.25 1/2 and near mid-range. September soybean meal rose $3.10 to $277.90, nearer the daily high. September soybean oil fell 43 points to 55.45 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean futures market saw mild selling pressure today, due in part to follow-through selling in the corn futures market. However, losses in beans were only slight due to some modest strength in the soybean meal futures market. A weakening U.S. dollar index this week also kept the sellers in the soy complex at bay.
USDA Monday afternoon rated the U.S. soybean crop as 68% good to excellent as of Sunday, down 2 percentage points from last week, while the portion rated poor to very poor rating rose two points to 7%. On the Pro Farmer CCI, the crop improved 0.7 points and was still one point ahead of one year ago.
Weather in the U.S. Midwest still leans price-bearish. World Weather Inc. today said U.S. soybean crop weather “is not very threatening, although there will be some net drying during a portion of the forecast, which is not unusual during the heart of summer. No excessive heat or blocking ridge of high pressure is expected, although there will be some developing dryness in the southwest part of the Midwest and neighboring areas of the Delta.” A few days of net drying may firm the soil in parts of the Midwest, but as long as timely returns within a few days the impact should be low and the bottom line for crops will remain favorable, said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at $10.60. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of $9.98 1/2. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $10.34 1/4 and then at last week’s high of $10.43 1/4. First support is seen at today’s low of $10.20 1/4 and then at $9.98 1/2.
Soybean meal bears have the solid near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in September futures above solid technical resistance at the July high of $285.40. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $268.70. First resistance comes in at this week’s high of $279.70 and then at $285.40. First support is seen at today’s low of $273.50 and then at $270.00.
Bean oil bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing September prices above solid technical resistance at 58.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 52.50 cents. First resistance is seen at 56.00 cents and then at last week’s high of 56.99 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 54.79 cents and then at 54.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 65% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 65% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat rose 6 1/4 cents to $5.69 1/2, nearer the daily high. December HRW wheat rose 6 3/4 cents to $5.55, nearer the daily high. December spring wheat rose 3 1/4 cents to $6.11 3/4.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw some short covering and perceived bargain hunting today. A lower U.S. dollar index so far this week is also working in favor of the wheat market bulls.
USDA Monday afternoon rated the U.S. spring wheat crop as 52% good to excellent, down 2 points from last week, while the poor to very poor rating increased 3 points to 16%. On our CCI, the HRS crop declined 7.2 points on the week and trails year-ago by 33.4 points. USDA reported winter wheat harvest advanced 10 points to 73% complete, which is now one point ahead of the five-year average.
In other price-friendly news, Russia trimmed its forecast for the 2025 wheat harvest and 2025-26 wheat exports, according to the Russian agriculture minister. Wheat harvest is estimated to be 88-90 MMT, down from the previous forecast of 90 MMT. Exports are expected to total 43-45 MMT, down from 45 MMT.
World Weather Inc. today said wheat crop conditions in Canada “are a concern, with parts of the Prairies losing yield potential because of dryness. Some rain is projected for the region this week after some fell during the weekend and that will bring a little relief. U.S. wheat production seems poised to do well in the Midwest and northern Plains, but it was a tough year in the central Plains and dryland areas of the Pacific Northwest. Meantime, most of the winter wheat in Europe and Russia is being harvested and will not likely respond well to rain in the future, said World Weather.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, there are stiff chart support levels that lie just below present prices. December SRW prices today scored a bullish outside day up on the daily bar chart. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.95. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.43 3/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.72 3/4 and then at the July high of $5.88 1/2. First support is seen at $5.60 and then at the July low of $5.52 2/3.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.75. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.25. First resistance is seen at $5.61 1/2 and then at $5.73 1/4. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.43 1/4 and then at the contract low of $5.38.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton rose 15 points to 68.25 cents, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: Choppy and sideways trading action in the cotton futures market continues as it has for the past three months. A weaker U.S. dollar index today did help out the cotton market bulls. However, weaker crude oil prices today did limit the upside in cotton.
USDA Monday afternoon rated the U.S. cotton crop as 57% good to excellent, up three points from last week. The poor to very poor rating fell 4 points to 13%.
World Weather Inc. today said Texas crop areas will experience warmer conditions and limited rainfall for a while. “South Texas crops would benefit from some rain, although it is getting a little late for a big change in production potential.” The U.S. Delta crops, like those in Texas, will likely dry down in the coming week while temperatures trend warmer. The environment may benefit cotton in many areas. Meantime, Argentina cotton weather will be dry biased for much of the coming week to 10 days, favoring harvest progress. The same is true for Mato Grosso, Bahia and some immediate neighboring areas in Brazil, said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field amid sideways and choppy trading. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at the June high of 69.52 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the June low of 66.27 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 68.88 cents and then at last week’s high of 69.15 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 67.80 cents and then at the July low of 67.13 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 75% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 75% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.