Corn
Price action: March corn futures fell 3/4 cent to $4.46, nearer the session low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market paused today. A firmer U.S. dollar index that hit a four-week high today was a negative outside market for corn. Still, bulls have some momentum as prices appear to be drifting toward the upper portion of a well-defined trading range.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. corn export sales of 377,600 MT for the week ended Jan. 1, a marketing-year low, were down 49% from the previous week and 76% from the four-week average.
Grain traders are starting to look ahead to Monday’s USDA supply and demand report.
World Weather Inc. today said dryness in southern Argentina is a concern and with limited rain and periodic warm conditions expected over the week inducing some potential yield loss. Central Argentina will see rain over the next few days preventing dryness from worsening in that region and protecting production potentials. Buenos Aires rain potentials may be greatest toward the latter part of next week. Overall, Argentina’s production potential is still looking good except in a few La Pampa, San Luis and southwestern Cordoba locations where some downward yield pressure has occurred in recent weeks because of dryness in the top and subsoil. Some relief to dryness in the far southwest is expected over the next five days. Brazil crops are rated well and should continue performing favorably because of a good mix of rain and sunshine over the next two weeks. A few drier pockets are unlikely to have a big impact on production potential. The northeastern states will be most closely monitored for dryness later this month.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close March prices above solid chart resistance at the December high of $4.53. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the November low of $4.34 1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.48 and then at $4.50. First support is seen at Wednesday’s low of $4.43 3/4 and then at $4.40.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: March soybeans fell 5 3/4 cents to $10.61 1/4 and near the daily low. March soybean meal fell $1.80 to $303.60, nearer the daily low. March soybean oil rose 14 points to 49.45 cents, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: Soybeans saw a corrective pullback today, after this week’s good gains, while meal also paused after recent gains. Bean oil saw some mild short covering late today. A firmer U.S. dollar index that today hit a four-week high was a negative outside market for the soy complex.
USDA reported daily U.S. soybean export sales of 132,000 MT of soybeans to China during 2025-26. The agency reported weekly U.S. soybean export sales of 877,900 MT for the week ended Jan. 1, down 26% from the previous week and down 42% from the four-week average.
Grain traders are starting to look ahead to Monday’s USDA supply and demand report.
World Weather Inc. today said the driest areas in northeastern Brazil will see a drier weather pattern through the next week to 10 days and the occasional rounds of rain expected will be important in preventing the soil from quickly drying out again. Rain should increase Jan. 17-22 and as long as rain falls as advertised, the precipitation should prevent excessive dryness from returning. Regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms will occur elsewhere in Brazil and Paraguay during the next two weeks keeping soil moisture favorable for crop development while fieldwork is slowed. In Argentina, stress to crops will increase through this weekend in parts of west-central into southern Argentina, where rain should not be great enough to prevent continued drying of the soil, with serious stress to crops likely in some areas from central and southern San Luis and southwestern Cordoba to La Pampa where the top and subsoil moisture is already short. A close watch will be made on rain advertised for much of the country Monday into Friday of next week and the driest areas in the west should receive enough rain to at least temporarily improve conditions for crops.
Technical analysis: The soybean bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still trending down on the daily bar chart. However, more gains in the near term would likely negate the price uptrend to suggest a near-term market bottom is in place. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing March prices above solid resistance at $11.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of $10.28 1/2. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $10.70 1/2 and then at $10.82 1/2. First support is seen at Wednesday’s low of $10.56 1/2 and then at $10.50.
Soybean meal bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage but a downtrend on the daily bar chart is in some jeopardy. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in March futures above solid technical resistance at $310.80. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the January low of $295.20. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $306.90 and then at $310.80. First support is seen $300.00 and then at last week’s low of $295.20.
Bean oil bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing March prices above solid technical resistance at 52.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the December low of 48.05 cents. First resistance is seen at 50.00 cents and then at this week’s high of 50.43 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 48.50 cents and then at the 48.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: March SRW closed steady at $5.18 and near mid-range. March HRW fell 1 1/4 cents to $5.30 1/4, near mid-range. March spring wheat futures rose 3/4 of a cent to $5.71 1/4.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw some more short covering and bargain buying early on today but modest selling pressure developed late in the session. Buying interest was limited by a firmer U.S. dollar index that hit a four-week high today. Longer-term chart price history dating back over 25 years shows that the $5.00 area in SRW wheat futures is strong chart support, which is also encouraging the speculative wheat bulls.
USDA today reported weekly U.S. wheat export sales totaled 118,700 MT for the week ended Jan. 1, which were up 24% from the previous week but down 55% from the four-week average.
Grain traders are starting to look ahead to Monday’s USDA supply and demand report.
World Weather Inc. today said there is still no risk of winterkill in U.S. hard red winter wheat areas or in the soft wheat areas of the Midwest. Warm weather in the central United States this week will maintain low winter hardiness for wheat and it will be important for snow to fall prior to any bitter cold event that might take place later in January. Soil temperatures are warm enough for new wheat growth in the southern Plains and Delta. However, dryness in the Plains should prevent much development. Rain and snow will impact the central and southern Plains through Friday which may improve topsoil moisture in many areas. The moisture boost will be welcome; though, much more will be needed in the high Plains region. Cooling this weekend will briefly improve winter hardiness, although warming next week will reverse that process.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage but trading has turned choppy and sideways at lower levels. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the December high of $5.44 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at $5.25 and then at $5.35. First support is seen at Wednesday’s low of $5.09 1/4 and then at last week’s contract low of $5.01 1/2.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at $5.50. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $4.98 3/4. First resistance is seen at $5.36 1/2 and then at $5.45. First support is seen at this week’s low of $5.15 and then at last week’s low of $5.08 1/4.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton fell 39 points to 64.46 cents, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures today saw another corrective pullback after prices hit a nearly two-month high on Tuesday. Cotton bears are noting futures price action seen on the daily chart the first half of October, as it looks very similar to recent price action: a fledgling uptrend that petered out after three weeks and the market then went on to drop to a new contract low.
USDA today reported weekly U.S. cotton net export sales of 98,000 running bales (RB) for 2025/2026 were down 27 percent from the previous week and down 49 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Vietnam (38,700 RB, including 2,200 RB switched from China), Pakistan (14,400 RB), Mexico (13,000 RB, including decreases of 300 RB), Turkey (12,700 RB), and China (12,400 RB). Exports of 154,000 RB were up 10 percent from the previous week and up 18 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (47,800 RB), Pakistan (28,800 RB), China (19,700 RB), Turkey (14,400 RB), and Indonesia (12,400 RB).
World Weather Inc. today said recent rain in California and that which is occurring in Arizona and northwestern Mexico today was welcome and improved topsoil moisture for use in the spring. Greater precipitation will be needed to more significantly raise long-term soil moisture, but any and all precipitation is welcome. Texas cotton areas all need rain to improve soil moisture and water supply for use in 2026. Showers are expected in the Blacklands, Coastal Bend and a few neighboring areas today and Friday will be welcome, but the relief is unlikely to be great enough for a lasting change, if there is any change. West Texas will receive the least amount of rain. Georgia, northern Florida, southeastern Alabama and southern South Carolina will continue to see well below normal rainfall over the next 10 days.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. However, the bulls are now working on keeping alive the price uptrend on the daily bar chart. They need to show fresh power soon to do so. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in March futures above technical resistance at 67.50 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of 63.68 cents. First resistance is seen at 65.00 cents and then at this week’s high of 66.76 cents. First support is seen at 64.00 cents and then at this week’s low of 63.68 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 20% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 20% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.