Corn
Price action: March corn fell 1/4 cent to $4.45 3/4 and near mid-range. For the week, December corn was up 8 1/4 cents.
5-day outlook: It was not a bad trading week for the corn futures bulls, as prices consolidated after Monday’s good gains. Corn futures remain in the middle of a choppy and sideways trading range but that could change next week.
The feature for next week will be Monday’s USDA data. A Reuters poll showed analysts expect, on average, 2025 U.S. corn production at 16.552 billion bu. (16.752 billion in the November report) and an average yield of 184.00 bu. an acre (186.0 in the November report). U.S. quarterly corn stocks as of Dec. 1 are estimated at 12.962 billion bu. (12.075 billion bu. on Dec. 1, 2024). The 2025-26 marketing year ending stocks for U.S. corn are seen at 1.972 billion bu. (2.029 billion bu. in the December report). The 2025-26 Argentine corn crop is seen at 53.63 million MT (53.0 million MT in the December report). The 2025-26 Brazilian corn crop is seen at 132.46 million MT (131.00 million MT in the December report). The 2025-26 global ending stocks for corn are seen at 279.62 million MT (279.15 million MT in the December report).
30-day outlook: Corn traders will continue to closely monitor growing conditions for South American crops. In Brazil, some of the details of the two-week outlook have changed since Thursday, but the bottom line to the outlook remains favorable for most crops in Brazil and Paraguay as regular rounds of rain will maintain favorable soil moisture for crop development while fieldwork is slowed at times. The driest areas in northeastern Brazil will see a drier weather pattern through the next two weeks and the occasional rounds of rain expected will be important in preventing the soil from quickly drying out again. Western into central Brazil will see regular rain Jan. 20-23 while northeastern and far southern Brazil see little precipitation. In Argentina, stress to crops will increase through this weekend in parts of west-central into southern Argentina, where rain should not be great enough to prevent continued drying of the soil with serious stress to crops likely in some areas from central and southern San Luis and southwestern Cordoba to La Pampa where the top and subsoil moisture is already short. A close watch will be made on rain advertised for much of Argentina Monday into Thursday when the driest areas in the west should receive enough rain to at least temporarily improve conditions for crops.
90-day outlook: Export demand for U.S. corn has been good. While corn futures prices have languished the past few weeks, the solid U.S. corn sales abroad should keep a floor under futures prices. The late-March planting intentions report from USDA will be one of the biggest data points of the year for the grain markets.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: March soybeans rose 1 1/4 cents to $10.62 1/2, nearer the daily low and for the week were up 16 1/4 cents. March soybean meal closed up 10 cents at $303.70, near mid-range and on the week up $7.70. March bean oil rose 24 points to 49.69 cents, near mid-range and for the week were up 39 points.
5-day outlook: Soybean and meal futures bulls had a good week, overall, despite some late-week consolidation. USDA today reported 198,000 MT of U.S. soybean sales to unknown destinations for 2025-2026. China’s Sinograin will auction 1.1 MMT of imported soybeans on January 13, marking its first sale of the year and fourth since last month as the state stockpiler makes room for arriving U.S. shipments, according to Reuters.
Trading in the grain futures markets may be subdued Monday morning, ahead of Monday’s midday USDA data dump. A Reuters poll showed analysts on average expect 2025 U.S. soybean production at 4.229 billion bu. (4.253 billion in the November report) and an average yield of 52.7 bu. an acre (53.0 in the November report). U.S. quarterly soybean stocks as of Dec. 1 are 3.25 billion bu. (3.10 billion on Dec. 1, 2024). The 2025-26 marketing year ending stocks for U.S. soybeans are seen at 292 million bu. (290 million in the December report). Argentina’s 2025-26 soybean crop is seen at 48.53 million MT (48.50 million MT in the December report). Brazil’s 2025-26 soybean crop is seen at 176.35 million MT (175.0 million MT in the December report). The 2025-26 global ending stocks for soybeans are seen at 123.07 million MT (122.37 million MT in the December report).
30-day outlook: Bean traders are more closely watching weather conditions in South American soybean-growing regions. Dryness in southern Argentina is still a concern; though some rain is expected during mid- to late-week next week that should provide some partial relief. Follow up precipitation will be very important in ensuring the best production potential. Brazil crops are rated well and should continue performing favorably because of a good mix of rain and sunshine over the next two weeks. A few drier pockets are unlikely to have a big impact on production potential. The northeastern states will be most closely monitored for dryness later this month.
90-day outlook: Market participants remain on alert for China to continue to purchase U.S. soybeans, but being leery of such as Brazilian producers begin to harvest what appears to be a monstrous crop. U.S. trade relations with China will continue to be near the front burner of the soy complex futures markets. China is so far meeting its pledge to the U.S. regarding the amount of U.S. soybeans purchased.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: March SRW wheat fell 3/4 cent to $5.17 1/4, near mid-range and for the week up 10 3/4 cents. March HRW wheat closed steady at $5.30 1/4, nearer the daily high and on the week up 15 1/4 cents. March spring wheat futures fell 3 3/4 cents to $5.67 1/2, at the daily low and for the week down 3 1/4 cents.
5-day outlook: The winter wheat futures markets bulls had a decent week as they worked prices up from their recent lows that included a contract low in SRW last week.
Wheat traders are awaiting Monday’s midday USDA data dump. A Reuters survey of analysts showed, on average, U.S. wheat quarterly stocks as of Dec. 1 are seen at 1.636 billion bu. (1.573 billion on Dec. 1, 2024). The 2025-26 marketing year ending stocks for U.S. wheat are seen at 896 million bu. (901 million in the December report). The 2025-26 global ending stocks for wheat are seen at 275.95 million MT (274.87 million MT in the December report). U.S. all wheat planted acres for harvest in 2026 is seen at 32.413 million (33.153 million in 2025).
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said there is still no risk of winterkill in U.S. hard red winter wheat areas or in the soft wheat areas of the Midwest. Producers will be hoping for cooler weather later this month and into February to prevent crops from developing prematurely. Drought in the Middle East, Morocco and Northwestern Algeria has been eased; although, more rain is needed. France has seen some improved topsoil moisture as well and more precipitation is needed to end long term drought. Precipitation and/or soil moisture in most other winter crop areas around the world are rated favorably; although timely spring rainfall will be imperative for eastern China, France, eastern Spain, the U.S. central and southern Plains and across Canada’s Prairies. India will need some timely rain later this month and in February to ensure the best potential yield as well.
90-day outlook: Hefty global supplies and mostly favorable weather conditions around the globe have kept wheat futures prices muted. However, there is lingering uncertainty over U.S. planted acres and whether or not it will be harvested or grazed. The all-important late-March USDA planting intentions report will provide grain traders more definitive crop acres numbers.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton futures fell 5 points to 64.41 cents, near mid-range and for the week up 40 points.
5-day outlook: The cotton futures bulls faded late this week after pushing to a two-month high on Tuesday. That will give the bears some confidence going into trading early next week. The big event of the week will be the USDA supply and demand report on Monday. Many market watchers are looking for the agency to cut last year’s U.S. production number, but also slightly reduce U.S. cotton exports.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said Texas cotton areas all need rain to improve soil moisture and water supply for use in 2026. Cotton in West Africa should be largely harvested, though some of the late crop may not be completely harvested for a little while. Late-season cotton in southern India continues to fill, mature and be harvested. Recent drier weather and that which is forthcoming should maintain a good quality crop. Australia’s cotton crop would benefit greatly from rain especially in western unirrigated areas where dryness is still a concern. Irrigated crops should be performing well as are some of the dryland crops produced in the east. Not much change in weather or crop conditions is likely for a while. Production is expected to be reduced by a cut in area planted and by poor rainfall in dryland production areas of the west. Argentina planting conditions have not been ideal this season; though, recent weather has improved and much of the planting should not be complete or nearly complete.
90-day outlook: The monthly U.S. employment report today may have been just what cotton market bulls wanted: It was not strong enough to deter the Federal Reserve from lowering U.S. interest rates in the coming months, and it was not weak enough to dent consumer confidence. That suggests consumer demand for new apparel in the coming months could be stronger. The overall bullish U.S. stock market and somewhat improved U.S.-China trade relations are also positives for a solid floor in place under the cotton market at present.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 20% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 20% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.