Corn
Price action: May corn rose 4 3/4 cents to $4.67 1/4, near the daily high and closed at a 10-month high close. For the week May corn was up 6 3/4 cents.
5-day outlook: May corn futures today saw its fourth consecutive technically bullish weekly high close on a Friday, again suggesting follow-through price strength early next week from the chart-based speculators. The recent gains in corn have been especially impressive given the keener risk aversion in the general marketplace amid the war in Iran.
Conab lowered its Brazilian corn production estimate to 138.27 MMT, down from 138.45 MMT in its previous forecast.
30-day outlook: Corn traders will continue to closely monitor growing conditions for South American crops. World Weather Inc. today said southern Brazil and Paraguay will have good opportunities for fieldwork during the next two weeks and Safrinha corn planting should advance well. However, a significant portion of the crop will be planted after the ideal planting period and some producers may plant a crop other than corn. Much of the region has marginal to short soil moisture and conditions for Safrinha corn development will often be poor until greater rain falls and with a wetter period of weather beginning next week some improvements in crop conditions are likely. Paraguay and Mato Grosso do Sul will be wettest and will see notable improvements in crop and soil conditions while Parana sees the least rain and limited improvements in crop and soil conditions. In Argentina, central and eastern regions will be dry most often into Saturday and fieldwork should advance well with stress to crops likely to increase in the drier areas while much of western Argentina receives at least some rain. A wetter weather pattern will occur Sunday into Mar. 23 and all areas will see multiple rounds of rain during the period that will slow fieldwork while improving conditions for crops in the drier areas. A full restoration of soil moisture is not likely in the drier areas and follow-up rain will be needed in the last days of March or early April.
The late-March USDA planting intentions report is coming more into focus, with spiking fertilizer prices and availability bringing a new twist for corn potentially less corn acres this year.
90-day outlook: The May corn futures contract is now above the pre-January WASDE trading range that had served as stiff resistance. Despite a relative decline in oil prices from late last week, urea futures remain near the highs that were forged at the start of the conflict with Iran. This has in turn increased uncertainty around acreage decisions due to the large change in breakeven prices for farmers that had not previously secured nitrogen for the growing season. While acreage shifts are likely to some degree, they may be limited by rotational practices and general preferences towards growing corn over alternative crops.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 40% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 40% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: May soybeans fell 2 cents to $12.25 1/4, nearer the daily high and for the week rose 24 1/2 cents. May soybean meal rose $2.50 to $322.70, near the session high, closed at a 3.5-month-high close, and for the week up $5.50. May bean oil rose 2 points to 67.44 cents, nearer the session high and for the week up 86 points.
5-day outlook: The soybean and bean oil markets today saw some needed chart consolidation following recent good gains. Today’s technically bullish weekly high close in soybean meal futures is also encouraging to the soybean market bulls. The soybean complex markets have fared well and shown resilience amid the keener risk aversion in the general marketplace at present, due to the war in Iran.
Conab cut its forecast for Brazil’s 2025-26 soybean production to 177.85 MMT, down from its previous estimate of 177.98 MMT.
Some soybean shipments from top exporter Brazil have failed to clear the country’s own sanitary inspections, raising concerns about potential disruptions at a crucial time for trade with China, Bloomberg reported. “A number of cargoes didn’t pass sanitary checks held at ports in the past few days, according to people familiar with the issues, who didn’t want to be identified as details are not public.
The framework for President Trump’s summit meeting with China’s President Xi Jinping is set to be mapped out this weekend as negotiators meet to discuss thorny issues such as tariffs, fentanyl and Taiwan. Reports said more China U.S. soybean purchases may also be on the agenda.
30-day outlook: Soybean traders are still closely watching weather conditions in South American soybean-growing regions. World Weather Inc. today said some concern remains over interior southern Brazil and Paraguay dryness. A few showers are possible, but the precipitation expected will not be very relieving and more moisture will be needed. In contrast, areas from Minas Gerais to Mato Grosso are becoming a little too wet or soon will, which may delay some field work. Southeastern Argentina and Uruguay remain drier than usual and in need of rain. Some of that need may be fulfilled by rain next week, though follow up precipitation will still be needed. In the meantime, the heart of Argentina’s coarse grain and oilseed region will remain in good shape with alternating periods of rain and sun dominating the next two weeks.
The late-March USDA planting intentions report is coming more into focus, with spiking fertilizer prices and availability bringing a new twist for corn versus soybean acres this year.
90-day outlook: The planned summit between President’s Trump and Xi in early April will be very closely watched by the grain markets. If the effects of a nitrogen shortage come to fruition, soybean plantings could increase, ultimately stirring negative consequences for the long-term price outlook for soybeans.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: May SRW wheat rose 15 1/4 cents to $6.13 3/4, near the daily high and for the week were down 3 cents. May HRW wheat rose 16 1/2 cents to $6.30, nearer the daily high and closed at a nine-month high close. For the week, May HRW was up 6 1/2 cents. May spring wheat futures rose 11 cents to $6.45 1/2, nearer the daily high and for the week down 1/2 cent.
5-day outlook: The winter wheat futures markets rallied today amid gains in crude oil futures and despite a stronger U.S. dollar index today that hit a 10-month high. Today’s technically bullish weekly high closes in May SRW and HRW futures set the table for follow-through chart-based buying from the speculators early next week. Gains in the corn futures market today were also supportive for the wheat markets.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, precipitation through the next 10 days will continue to be very limited which will further raise concerns of dryness as the winter wheat crop sees expected periods of unusual warmth. A big but brief surge of unusually cold air will occur Sunday through Monday though and will likely burn back some wheat development in the south with no permanent damage. A strong high-pressure ridge in the second week of the outlook will likely cause record-breaking heat. Temperatures will warm well into the 90s in at least some of the region, potentially reaching the lower 100s Fahrenheit in the southwest. Strong to extreme winds are expected across the region Sunday with gusts as high as 55 to 75 mph. A few gusts as high as 80 mph may occur, especially near the Kansas/Colorado border. Livestock stress, travel delays, and plenty of blowing dust are expected as a result. Some snow is possible with the wind in northeastern production areas. In the Northern Plains, a snowstorm with blizzard or near-blizzard conditions will occur across the southern half of the region Saturday into early Sunday and will cause livestock stress and travel delays. Well below average temperatures will move in behind this system for Sunday into Tuesday with subzero Fahrenheit temperatures across a majority of the region. However, snow cover should protect most crops. A close monitoring of the distribution of snow is warranted since there is some potential for gaps in the snow cover. Record-breaking heat is then possible in southwestern production areas in the second week of the outlook which will rapidly melt snow and cause more livestock stress.
90-day outlook: Overall supply and demand fundamentals for wheat still lean bearish, as rains in the eastern U.S. helped bolster soil moisture across the heart of SRW country as the crop exits dormancy. Drought has eased somewhat in the Plains, but precipitation was spotty overall. Recent increases in U.S. wheat prices have made the crop expensive relative to foreign options, but export demand remains firm for now. Spring wheat futures have been supported as Asian markets have continued to show strong demand, with China stepping in to purchase HRS for only the second time this marketing year, according to export sales data released this week.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: May cotton futures rose 71 points to 65.85 cents, near mid-range, hit a three-week high and for the week up 165 points.
5-day outlook: The cotton futures market saw a technically bullish weekly high close today, which suggests some follow-through chart-based buying interest early next week. Short covering was featured today, with bulls also encouraged by rallies in the corn and wheat futures markets, as well as higher crude oil prices.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said dry weather will be most common through the next two weeks in Texas cotton regions, with a few infrequent rounds of precipitation that should not have a lasting impact on soil moisture leaving much of the region in need of significant rain to improve conditions for the coming planting season. California has fallen back to a drier bias after some rain fell recently. Both southern California and Arizona would benefit from additional moisture. Recent rain in the southeastern U.S. has improved soil moisture for better planting potentials later this spring. Subsoil moisture is still low from Florida and southeastern Alabama into a part of the Carolinas, though the situation is not critical. This region will get some timely rain in the next couple of weeks, although drought status will remain.
90-day outlook: The cotton futures market may be seeing a technically bullish coiling pattern at lower price levels, which may spring into an uptrend in the coming weeks. However, it’s likely that a sustained price uptrend in cotton will need to be accompanied by better export demand for the U.S. fiber in the coming months. An improvement in U.S.-China trade relations would be one positive on the demand front for U.S. cotton. Presidents Trump and Xi are scheduled to meet in early April.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 40% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You are 10% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time
Cash-only marketers: You are 40% sold on 2025-crop. You are 10% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.