Corn
Price action: December corn fell 4 3/4 cents to $4.23 1/4, nearer the daily low and for the week gained 3/4 cent.
5-day outlook: Today’s losses did somewhat dent bullish enthusiasm in the corn market. Today’s selling pressure in corn likely stemmed in part from limit-down losses in the cattle futures markets today.
World Weather Inc. today said two rounds of rain will occur by Tuesday from eastern Kansas to western and central Kentucky seeing rain into Sunday before the northwestern to the south-central to the southeastern Midwest sees rain Monday into Tuesday. Fieldwork will be interrupted, but a combination of low soil moisture and rain that is rarely heavy should ensure delays to farming activity are temporary. Drier weather will resume Wednesday into Nov. 7 and fieldwork should steadily accelerate. Temperatures will be not far from normal in most areas overall through the next week with the northwestern Belt much warmer than normal into Sunday.
30-day outlook: Corn harvest will be winding down in the next two or three weeks, which will also see commercial hedge selling abate. That’s a price-friendly element for corn. However, the extended U.S. government shutdown and lawmaker impasse on reopening the government continues to see a data void that’s not bullish for the grain markets. However, we look for the U.S. lawmaker impasse to come to an end and the U.S. government reopening within the next couple weeks. Reason: Air traffic controllers are not getting paid and are not at all happy about it. Any significant and expansive air travel delays will anger tens of thousands of voters.
90-day outlook: Strong domestic and export demand for corn continues to bolster cash basis levels, while producers continue to hold off for more profitable levels amid generally lackluster yields. Meanwhile, ethanol exports are poised to hit a record high for the second straight year, according to the Energy Information Administration. However, high input prices may have many producers seriously questioning 2026 corn acres, which could be a game changer.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: January soybeans fell 1 3/4 cent to $10.60 1/4, nearer the session low hitting a five-week high early on. For the week, January beans rose 23 1/2 cents. December soybean meal rose $1.80 to $294.10, nearer the daily high and hit a seven-week high. On the week, December meal gained $13.10. December bean oil fell 60 points to 50.27 cents, nearer the session low and for the week down 86 points.
5-day outlook: It was a very good week for the soybean and meal futures bulls, including today’s technically bullish weekly high close December meal. Some upbeat comments from Chinese trade officials today helped support buying interest in the soybean and meal markets today.
Next week’s scheduled summit meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping may be the most important event of the year for the soybean market. Trump has said more Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans is near the top of his list of objectives for the meeting. Recent upbeat comments from both sides, regarding an acceptable trade deal, encouraged the soy complex bulls this week.
30-day outlook: U.S. soybean harvest will be entering its final stages in the next couple weeks. World Weather Inc. today said U.S. soybean harvest weather will advance around periodic rainfall during the next ten days. No crop quality problems are expected because of periodic rain. Meantime, concern remains for some of Brazil’s soybean country due to some dryness that is prevailing. Improving rainfall will come in early November, but until then pockets of dryness will prevail. Southern Brazil early soybean planting and development are advancing well. Argentina will see a good mix of rain and sunshine to maintain a very good outlook for summer crop planting and early development during the next two weeks.
90-day outlook: Export demand for U.S. soybeans, hopefully fresh economic data from USDA in the coming weeks, or sooner as the U.S. government reopens, and weather in Brazil and Argentina as their growing seasons are under way, will be main fundamental topics for soybean traders in the next few months.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat fell 1/2 cent to $5.12 1/2, near mid-range and hit a nearly three-week high. For the week, December SRW was up 8 3/4 cents. December HRW wheat gained 1 1/2 cents to $5.01 1/2, near mid-range, hit a three-week high and up 10 cents for the week. December spring wheat futures fell 1 cent to $5.57, near mid-range, but up 8 1/2 cents on the week.
5-day outlook: The technically bullish weekly high close in December HRW markets for the second Friday in a row today sets up follow-through buying interest from the chart-based speculators in both markets early next week.
World Weather Inc. today said significant rain will impact an area from central Oklahoma up into south-central Kansas today through Saturday. The rain will be great for notably increasing topsoil moisture and improving conditions for winter wheat establishment; however, some flooding is also possible, mainly in eastern Oklahoma. Some additional rain remains a possibility in northern production areas late Sunday through Monday; though, this should not be as significant as today’s rain event. Dryness concerns remain in the western 25% of the region as both rain events should mostly miss this area. Little to no rain is expected in the second week of the outlook. In the U.S. Northern Plains, conditions today into Sunday will still be great for late-season fieldwork to advance more due to dry weather and unusual warmth. A storm system will then impact the eastern half of the region late Sunday into Tuesday with rain, which could cause some temporary late-season fieldwork disruption. This system has been trending a little weaker, but should still cause some rain to occur. Conditions for late-season fieldwork should then be mostly good in the second week of the outlook.
30-day outlook: There were so-far unfounded rumors in the wheat markets this week that China may be poised to purchase more U.S. wheat. Next week’s scheduled summit meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping may be one of the most important events of the year for U.S. agriculture. Wheat traders will be anxiously awaiting the outcome of the summit meeting. A positive outcome from the summit could set the tone for more Chinese buying of U.S. wheat in the coming weeks/months, and in turn be one more positive element in turning around the wheat futures markets.
90-day outlook: The U.S. dollar index has seen some hiccups recently but remains in a price uptrend that began in mid-September. That’s been a negative “outside market” for wheat futures. The USDX will be an important outside-market for the wheat futures in the months ahead. Continued strength in the USDX would be bearish for wheat, making U.S. wheat export prices less competitive on the global trade markets.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures rose 13 points to 64.20 cents, nearer the session high and for the week down 8 points.
5-day outlook: The cotton futures market has recently shown signs of bottoming. Yet, the bulls cannot muster the strength to pull prices out of a six-month old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Selling interest in the cotton futures market has been limited by the gains in the grain futures markets this week. Continued strength in the grains would be bullish for cotton.
Next week’s scheduled summit meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping may be one of the most important events of the year for the U.S. cotton market. Trump has said more Chinese purchases of U.S. ag products is necessary for a lasting U.S.-China trade deal to be reached.
World Weather Inc. today said any showers that occur in West Texas over the next week to 10 days should be insignificant to the maturing cotton crop. Temperatures will remain above the frost and freeze threshold through the end of this month, but there may be some cooling in early November. Good drying conditions are likely in the southeastern states for the next week. Rain in the Delta should be limited through Friday. Showers and thunderstorms will then pop up and impact a part of the region this weekend and next week. Southwestern U.S. cotton fiber quality improvements have occurred with recent drier weather and harvesting is advancing more normally after rain fell earlier this month.
30-day outlook: The major U.S. stock indexes today hit record highs. Crude oil prices this week made a strong rebound and today hit a three-week high. These are price-friendly outside-market factors for the cotton futures market that could help sustain a price rebound in the coming weeks, or sooner.
90-day outlook: The U.S. dollar index has seen some hiccups recently but remains in a price uptrend that began in mid-September. That’s been a negative “outside market” for cotton futures. The USDX will be an important outside-market for the cotton futures in the months ahead. Continued strength in the USDX would be bearish for cotton, making U.S. cotton prices less competitive on the global trade markets.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.