Corn
Price Action: July corn fell 9 cents to $4.33 1/2, marking the lowest close since Oct. 18.
Fundamental analysis: Corn futures kicked the week off in lackluster fashion, edging lower in tandem with wheat futures despite outside market support and strong weekly export inspections. Rains throughout the Midwest limited buyers today, with regular rounds of showers expected to continue through the next two weeks, ensuring soil moisture is high into at least late this month, according to World Weather Inc.
Meanwhile, traders likely took a greater risk-off position as trade talks progress between the U.S. and China, while momentum is reported to be accelerating with India. However, talks with China are of particular importance as the marketplace anxiously awaits whether the world’s two largest economies resume cooperation or plunge deeper into economic fragmentation.
Traders were seemingly unimpressed by USDA’s weekly export inspection data, which showed net corn inspections totaling 1.66 MMT (65.2 million bu.) during the week ended June 5. Inspections were up 14,840 MT from the previous week and topped analysts’ pre-report range of 1.0 MMT to 1.6 MMT.
In global supply news, Ag consultancy, APK-Inform trimmed its Ukraine 2025 grain production forecast by 4.3% to 52.9 MMT. The firm reduced its corn production forecast by 2.1 MMT to 24.9 MMT, and reduced its 2025-26 grain export forecast by 2.4 MT to 38.5 MMT.
Technical analysis: July corn edged to a new for-the-move low and marked the lowest close since mid-October. Bears continue to firmly grasp the near-term technical advantage and are seemingly poised to take out the contract low of $4.21 3/4, though initial support is layered at $4.30 3/4 and $4.26 1/2. Meanwhile, bulls will need to overcome resistance at the 10-, 20-, 40- and 200-day moving averages, layered from $4.43 1/4 to $4.62 1/2 in order to garner technical momentum.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans closed 1 1/4 cents lower to $10.56. July meal inched 20 cents lower to $295.5. July bean oil sunk 12 points to 47.38 cents. Each saw just modest losses today.
Fundamental analysis: Soybeans saw relative strength compared to the flailing grain market today but struggled to break much above unchanged in old-crop futures. The July-Nov calendar spread continues to build bullish momentum as the Goldman roll is in full swing. The spread is up over 15 cents above the late May low. The recent meeting between U.S. and China officials did little to drum up buying today. U.S. and Chinese officials, including U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, Trade Representative Ambassador Jamieson Greer and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, met in London today. This meeting comes as both nations work to resolve intensifying disputes over export controls and critical material flows, particularly regarding rare earth minerals and advanced technology components. China meanwhile resumes purchases of soybeans from Brazil, having zero sales on the books for U.S. origin beans. China imported a record 13.92 MMT of soybeans in May, up 7.84 MMT (129%) from April and 3.7 MMT (36.2%) above last year. Customs clearance times returned to normal, while demand from crushing plants was strong. Through the first five months of this year, China imported 37.11 MMT of soybeans, down 0.7% from the same period last year.
USDA reported soybean export inspections of 547,040 MT (20.1 million bu.) for the week ended June 5, up 245,581 MT from the previous week and above pre-report expectations from 155,000 to 400,000 MT. Not only were inspections up sharply from a week-ago, but last week’s inspections were revised higher as well. Inspections are pacing above the needed pace to hit the current USDA export forecast.
USDA will release their weekly Crop Progress report after the close. A Bloomberg poll of analysts shows expectations that the soybean crop will be 91% planted as of June 8, which would be up from 84% last week and 87% at this time last year. The poll indicated expectations that the crop will be rated at 68% “good” to “excellent,” which would be up one point from last week.
Technical analysis: July soybean futures found resistance at the downtrend stemming from the May highs, ending a four-day streak of gains. Staunch resistance stands at the aforementioned downtrend line at $10.61, while strength above that mark finds resistance at $10.64, the 200-day moving average, then $10.67 1/2. Meanwhile, support comes in at $10.51, the 10-day moving average, which sees little backing until stiff support at $10.40.
July meal traded on either side of unchanged today before closing modestly lower. Bears retain the technical advantage but the downtrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. Bulls have tested 40-day moving average resistance for four consecutive sessions and it is likely weakening. That stands as resistance at $297.0 and is reinforced by psychological $300.0 resistance. Bulls are seeking to hold support tat $294.2 on a push lower, which is backed by last week’s low of $293.2.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 65% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 65% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW wheat fell 12 3/4 cents to $5.42, near the session low after hitting a six-week high overnight. July HRW wheat sunk 11 3/4 cents to $5.37 1/2, near the daily low after also hitting a six-week high overnight. July spring wheat futures slid 12 3/4 cents to $6.22 1/2.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets today saw some profit-taking pressure following recent good gains. Sharp losses in the corn futures market today also spilled over into selling pressure in wheat.
Wheat traders continue to closely monitor trade negotiations between the U.S. and its counterparts. U.S. and Chinese officials met in London today. Today’s session could decide if the world’s two largest economies can resume cooperation or remain in a cold war on trade. As of this writing there was no word on how the talks went today.
USDA this morning reported U.S. wheat export inspections of 290,957 MT for the week ended June 5, down 262,452 MT from the previous week and within the pre-report range of expectations.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, “concern remains over wet fields in Oklahoma and south-central Kansas.” A small weather disturbance could promote some additional rain in this part of the region Wednesday into Friday. A drier bias is then likely for a while after this due to a high pressure ridge. However, “completely dry weather may not evolve and the combination of a few showers, high humidity and warm temperatures might still promote a little threat for crops.” Meantime, some HRW areas in the north may need a little more rain, although subsoil moisture will remain favorable throughout the next ten days. In the Northern Plains, soil conditions have been drying out recently in the central and western Dakotas while the driest area in the northern Plains remains in northern and some central Montana locations, where soil moisture is rated very short in the top and subsoil, said World Weather.
This afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports are expected to show U.S. winter wheat harvested at 8% complete as of Sunday versus 3% done a week ago and 12% complete at the same time last year. Winter wheat in good to excellent conditions is expected at 52%, the same as last week and compares with 47% complete at the same time last year. Spring wheat condition is seen at 52% good to excellent as of Sunday, compared to 50% last week and 72% in the same categories one year ago at the same time.
Technical analysis: July SRW and HRW futures scored bearish “outside days” down on the daily bar charts today. Bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending up on the daily bar charts. The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at the April high of $5.71. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.25. First resistance is seen at $5.50 and then at today’s high of $5.57 3/4. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.40 and then at last week’s low of $5.31 3/4. HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at $5.75. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.25. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.51 and then at $5.60. First support is seen at last week’s low of $5.30 and then at $5.23.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop production. You should be 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop production. You should be 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton rose 35 points to 65.97 cents and closed near the session high.
Fundamental analysis: Nearby cotton futures firmed modestly, hemmed by technical pressure despite supportive outside markets. Downbeat economic data from China likely also suppressed the natural fiber, while a risk-off tone was certainly present as trade talks progressed between the U.S. in China today in London. However, progressing talks with India continue to hold a slight undertone of optimism.
Meanwhile, World Weather Inc. maintains field conditions will remain too wet in the Delta, with more rain expected over the next ten days, while showers in West Texas will be welcome for planting and establishment. Portions of the southeastern U.S. will get rain in the coming week, with coastal areas of the Carolinas and part of eastern Georgia the wettest. Much of Florida will also get significant rain while the interior crop areas of the southeastern states may not get as much moisture.
USDA will release its Crop Progress & Condition Report following the close.
Technical analysis: July cotton continues to edge sideways in consolidative trade, with bears looking to take out the April 4 low of 62.05 cents, while bulls need to overcome the 100-day moving average of 67.39 cents. However, initial support lies at 65.21 cents, then at 64.80 cents and 64.42 cents, while initial resistance stands at 66.00 cents, 66.38 cents and 65.59 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.