Corn
Price action: December corn futures rose 5 1/2 cents to $4.28 3/4, nearer the session low and hit a four-month high early on.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw good speculator buying interest following the weekend news that China and the U.S. are close to reaching a trade deal. Solid gains in soybeans and wheat futures today again also supported better buying interest in corn.
USDA today reported weekly U.S. corn export inspections of 1.188 MMT for the week ended Oct. 23, down 137,492 MT from the previous week.
Brazil’s center-south first corn plantings were estimated to be 55% complete as of last Thursday, according to AgRural.
A Bloomberg survey of analysts showed they expected, on average, the U.S. corn harvest to be 73% complete as of Sunday.
World Weather Inc. today said the Midwest will see three rounds of well-organized precipitation through the next two weeks, with the soil dry enough in much of the region that prolonged delays to fieldwork should not result from the precipitation, while the moisture will ease drought conditions. The greatest rain event through the next 10 days will occur today into Wednesday, with central Minnesota to eastern Kansas and Missouri to Kentucky to southern into central and eastern Ohio seeing significant rain that will induce beneficial increases in soil moisture in the drier areas. Drier weather will resume Wednesday into Nov. 7 and fieldwork should steadily accelerate. Temperatures will be warmer than normal most often through the next week in northern parts of the western Corn Belt, while other areas often see temperatures that are not far from normal.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and gained more power today. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $4.50. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the October low of $4.09 1/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.31 3/4 and then at $4.35. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.26 and then at $4.20.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybean producers: Extend 2025-crop sales...November soybeans have rallied to a 4 1/2 month high, hitting our target of $10.70. We advise soybean hedgers and cash-only marketers to sell another 10% of the 2025-crop to get to 30% sold in the cash market. Be prepared to make additional sales on extended price strength.
Soybeans
Price action: January soybeans rose 23 cents to $10.83 1/4, nearer the daily high and hit a 12-month high. December soybean meal rose $4.10 to $298.20, nearer the daily high and hit a nine-week high. December soybean oil rose 50 points to 50.77 cents, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The soy complex futures today saw good speculator buying interest and short covering following the weekend news that the U.S. and China are very close to a trade agreement that would likely mean more China purchases of U.S. soybeans. The chart postures soybeans and meal futures have gotten markedly more bullish recently, which is prompting the chart-based traders to play the long sides.
USDA today reported weekly U.S. soybean inspections of 1.061 MMT for the week ended Oct. 23, down 528,889 MT from the previous week.
Brazil’s soybean planting advanced to 36% complete as of last Thursday, according to AgRural.
A Bloomberg survey of analysts showed they expected, on average, the U.S. soybean harvest to be 84% complete as of Sunday.
World Weather Inc. today said concern remains for some of Brazil’s soybean country due to some dryness that is prevailing. Improving rainfall will come late this week through early November, but until then pockets of dryness will prevail. Southern Brazil early soybean planting and development are advancing well. Argentina has been seeing and will continue to see a good mix of rain and sunshine to maintain a very good outlook for summer crop planting and early development during the next two weeks, said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and gained more power today. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing January prices above solid resistance at $11.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $10.50. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $10.89 3/4 and then at $11.00. First support is seen at $10.80 and then at today’s low of $10.70 1/4.
December soybean meal bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and have momentum. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at the May high of $312.40. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $285.00. First resistance comes in at $300.00 and then at $305.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $294.80 and then at $290.00.
Bean oil bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of 53.88 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the September low of 48.89 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 51.46 cents and then at the October high of 51.77 cents. First support is seen at 50.00 cents and then at 49.68 cents.
What to do: NEW ADVICE: We advise soybean hedgers and cash-only marketers to sell another 10% of the 2025-crop to get to 30% sold in the cash market at $10.70 basis November futures. Be prepared to make additional sales on extended price strength.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW rose 13 1/2 cents to $5.26, nearer the session high and hit a six-week high. December HRW gained 12 3/4 cents to $5.14 1/4, nearer the daily high and hit a six-week high. December spring wheat futures rose 3 1/4 cents to $5.60 1/4.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets bulls shifted into high gear today following news the U.S. and China are close to a trade deal that may include more U.S. wheat purchases from China. Solid gains in corn and soybean futures today also helped to boost the wheat markets.
USDA today reported weekly U.S. wheat inspections of 258,543 MT for the week ended Oct. 23, down 234,944 MT from the previous week.
A Bloomberg survey of analysts showed they expected, on average, the U.S. winter wheat crop to be 85% planted and 50% in good to excellent condition as of Sunday.
World Weather Inc. today said recent rain in wheat areas from Kansas to northern Oklahoma “was ideal for improved wheat emergence and establishment. Additional rain during mid-week this week will also have a similar impact. A boost in precipitation will soon be needed in the high Plains region where La Nina influences are likely to lead to drier and warmer conditions during the balance of autumn. The prospects for wheat are looking good for most areas, but rain is needed in the west.” In the Northern Plains, rain this week will favor the northeast half of the region where soil moisture will be good for winter crops. Some late-season harvest delay is likely because of the frequent bouts of light rain. There is an ongoing need for greater soil moisture in Montana and the coming week of precipitation is unlikely to be very great in those areas, said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bulls have quickly gained the overall near-term technical advantage. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.50. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at $5.35 3/4 and then at $5.40. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.16 3/4 and then at $5.10.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.50. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $4.90. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.18 1/2 and then at $5.25. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.05 and then at $5.00.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton rose 36 points to 64.56 cents, nearer the daily low after hitting a three-week high early on.
Fundamental analysis: December cotton futures today saw better buying interest early on, following the weekend news that the U.S. and China are close to securing a trade deal that could mean more China purchases of U.S. cotton. Record-high U.S. stock index prices scored today were also bullish for cotton. However, cotton bulls faded a bit down the stretch today.
World Weather Inc. today said good crop maturation and harvest weather is expected in Texas. Some frost and light freezes may impact parts of cotton country in the west Wednesday and Thursday mornings. The impact may end the growing season a little sooner than a few producers would like. Rain in the Delta during the weekend delayed harvesting and raised some cotton fiber quality concerns. Crops in the southeastern states were dry, although rain will reach those areas early this week. None of the rain in these areas will last very long and crop conditions should improve. Southwestern U.S. cotton harvesting will advance well over the next ten days due to warmer than usual temperatures and no rain, said World Weather.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a 5.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart was negated today, to better suggest a market bottom is in place. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 66.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the contract low of 62.71 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 65.35 cents and then at 68.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 64.34 cents and then at last week’s low of 63.65 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.