Corn
Price action: December corn futures rose 5 3/4 cents to $4.07, near the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures markets were supported today by short covering after December futures prices hit a contract low Wednesday, and on perceived bargain buying. There are growing notions that all the bearish fundamental news in the corn market—namely a bumper U.S. crop very likely to be forecast in next Tuesday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report—has been factored into futures prices. Stronger export demand for U.S. corn has also perked up the bulls.
USDA this morning reported daily U.S. corn sales of 106,680 MT to Mexico and 105,000 MT to Guatemala during 2025-26. The agency reported weekly old-crop U.S. corn sales of 170,400 MT for 2024-25 for the week ended July 31, down 50% from the previous week and down 71% from the four-week average. However, new-crop corn sales totaled 3.163 MMT. Old-crop sales were below the pre-report range of expectations ranging from 200,000 to 400,000 MT, while new-crop sales were well above the range of 1.3 MMT to 2.5 MMT.
World Weather Inc. today said U.S. crop weather in the Midwest has been and will continue to be mostly good over the next 10 days to two weeks. The lower and eastern Midwest will need to be watched for firming soil. Weather later in August will be very important to production and there are likely to be some pockets of dryness while other areas remain in good shape. “The environment will not be ideal, although the impact on production may be low.” Brazil’s Safrinha corn is maturing and being harvested and the environment has been quite good for those purposes, said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: The corn futures bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, price action Wednesday and today suggests the corn bears are exhausted and that a market bottom may be in place. Prices are still in a 3.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $4.20. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the contract low of $3.96 3/4. First resistance is seen at $4.10 and then at $4.17. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.01 1/4 and then at $4.00.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans rose 9 1/4 cents to $9.93 3/4, near the daily high. September soybean meal rose $3.50 to $276.10, near the daily high. September soybean oil fell 22 points to 53.50 cents, near mid-range and hit a three-week low.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and meal futures markets were supported today by short covering and by solid gains in corn and wheat futures. Short covering was featured today. Also, the bean bulls are starting to reckon a big U.S. soybean crop is now already baked into the cake for futures prices. Spreaders unwinding long soybean oil, short soybean meal spreads were also featured today.
USDA today reported old-crop U.S. soybean sales of 467,800 MT during the week ended July 31, up 71% from the previous week and up 63% from the four-week average. Net new-crop bean sales totaled 545,000 MT. Old- and new-crop sales were each above the pre-report ranges of 100,000 to 300,000 MT and 200,000 to 500,000 MT, respectively.
World Weather Inc. today reported the Midwest will see another two weeks of favorable conditions for soybean crop development “and very high production potentials.” Some areas will dry down significantly during the next two weeks but a combination of favorable subsoil moisture and a lack of widespread heat for at least another week, along with some rain, “will ensure crops have adequate soil moisture into the latter part of the month.”
Technical analysis: The soybean bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at $10.20. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of $9.71 1/4. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $10.02 1/4 and then at $10.12 3/4. First support is seen at this week’s low of $9.81 1/4 and then at $9.71 1/4.
Soybean meal bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in September futures above solid technical resistance at the July high of $285.40. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $262.50. First resistance comes in at Wednesday’s high of $277.90 and then at $280.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $271.50 and then at $268.70.
Bean oil bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. A five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing September prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of 57.64 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 50.91 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 54.94 cents and then at 56.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 53.27 cents and then at 52.92 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 65% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 65% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat rose 9 3/4 cents to $5.39, nearer the daily high. December HRW wheat rose 9 3/4 cents to $5.41 3/4, near the daily high. December spring wheat futures rose 2 3/4 cents to $5.95.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets today saw short covering after December SRW and HRW futures hit contract lows on Wednesday. Solid gains in corn and soybean futures today also supported the wheat markets bulls.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat sales of 737,800 MT for the week ended July 31, up 25% from the previous week and four-week average. Sales exceeded the pre-report range of 350,000 to 600,000 MT.
World Weather Inc. today reported that in the U.S. Northern Plains, significant rain is expected in some areas today, especially in central and southern North Dakota, and then less-significant thunderstorm activity also will occur Friday. Localized flooding is expected this afternoon through tonight in North Dakota and severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, locally large hail, and a few possible isolated tornadoes. There is some possibility of a derecho being involved, starting near the Montana/North Dakota border midday today and then reaching Minnesota tonight into early Friday morning. If an organized derecho does form, wind damage could be significant in some areas and in a long swath. “Damage would include crops, personal property, and infrastructure,” said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.60. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $5.43 and then at $5.50. First support is seen at $5.30 and then at the contract low of $5.25.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.60. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $5.43 1/2 and then at $5.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.31 and then at the contract low of $5.24.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton fell 41 points to 66.43 cents, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market saw selling pressure today due in part to a firmer U.S. dollar index, lower crude oil prices and a wobbly U.S. stock market. Trading remains choppy and sideways amid the summer doldrums.
USDA today reported weekly U.S. cotton sales of 109,300 running bales (RB) for 2025/2026 marketing year, which began August 1, primarily for Vietnam, Peru and Mexico. A total reduction of 17,200 RB in sales was carried over from the 2024/2025 marketing year, which ended July 31. Exports for the period ending July 31 of 182,300 RB brought accumulated exports to 11,191,200 RB, up 1 percent from the prior year’s total of 11,070,400 RB. The shipments were primarily to Vietnam, Pakistan and Bangladesh.
World Weather Inc. today said unirrigated west Texas cotton areas still need greater rain and some additional warm weather to support the best dryland production. “Hotter temperatures are likely over the next three days and that will be good for irrigated fields, but dryland crops that need rain in the southwest will be more stressed by the heat and rainfall is expected to be minimal.” Other areas in Texas are seeing highly varying weather and soil conditions. “Timely rain will become increasingly more important as the next two weeks move along to ensure the best crop development and yield potential in the Blacklands and upper coast.” South Texas crops are maturing and beginning to be harvested. U.S. Delta crops are drying down and timely rain is needed. The southeastern U.S. cotton areas in the nation have received significant rain recently and more will fall to support long term crop development, said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at the June high of 69.52 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the June low of 66.27 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 67.44 cents and then at this week’s high of 67.72 cents. First support is seen at 66.27 cents and then at 66.00 cents.
What to do: Finish 2024-crop sales. Today marks the end of the 2024-25 marketing year for cotton. We advise cotton hedgers and cash-only marketers to sell the final 25% of 2024-crop production to get to 100% sold. New-crop sales will wait for an extended rally.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.