Corn
Price action: July corn slid 4 3/4 cents to $4.28 3/4, marking a weekly decline of 15 3/4 cents.
5-day outlook: Corn futures took a turn lower in the latter portion of today’s session, marking fresh for-the-move lows in the July contract. July futures’ options went off the board today, which could have influenced late session weakness as market-makers shored up positions ahead of option expiration. That should free up price action next week for more production price discovery. While July futures are nearly oversold, December futures are in the middle of the recent range, due to the extensive weakness in the July-Dec spread over the past couple of months. Given that December futures are going to take over as the top-volume contract, traders are likely to focus more on that contract. Bears’ defense of the 40-day moving average at $4.44 1/2 today was a bearish omen for price action next week. Until a significant catalyst, such as the June 30 reports, a break higher seems unlikely.
30-day outlook: The bearish price action that has taken hold over corn futures the last couple of months despite ongoing robust demand has led many to question if there will be a significant surprise in the upcoming quarterly Stocks and Acreage numbers. The March Acreage Report indicated farmers’ plans to significantly increase corn plantings in 2025. While that weighed on new-crop futures, the cash and futures markets for old-crop saw sharp weakness as well. That indicates a potential miss of the 2024 crop size. Our analysis points to just that, USDA likely underestimated the 2024 crop, which will lead to higher ending stocks than the market currently anticipates. By what margin remains to be seen, but recent data released from the Risk Management Agency wing of USDA indicates NASS likely underestimated the size of last year’s crop. That adjustment would likely be reflected in the feed and residual figure of the stocks report.
90-day outlook: This spring has been somewhat of a mixed bag in terms of weather. Challenging weather has become more the norm than the exception in recent years. That is likely to eventually breed some kind of a summer weather rally. Historically, December futures will post a bottom sometime in late June before driving higher in early to mid-July. The market still shows little sign that a near-term low is in place, but the downside has been rather limited since mid-May. How prices react no longer being tethered to the July contract over the course of the next week will be telling. We will continue to watch for signs of a potential summer rally and will advise sales assuming one takes place, which we continue to anticipate.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans fell 6 3/4 cents to $10.68, giving up 1 3/4 cents on the week. July meal fell 80 cents to $284.10, and marked a $7.80 weekly loss, while July soyoil fell 30 points to 54.47 cents, a 386-point week-over-week gain.
5-day outlook: Soybeans extended last week’s RFS-driven strength, though gains faded as bulls approached the mid-May high amid technically overbought conditions. Today’s price action suggests a healthy pullback may ensue in the coming week. However it would certainly allow bulls to recharge ahead of USDA’s June Acreage and Grain Stocks Reports, due out on June 30. Moreover, barring an additional catalyst, a hefty extension higher next week is unlikely as traders look to minimize risk ahead of USDA.
30-day outlook: Weather will continue to be the lingering focus as traders gain a better grasp on planted acres. Weather across the Midwest has proven mixed, with lower and eastern areas having faced persisting moisture throughout the planting season. This may lead to an increase in soy acres, however some unknowns will linger as some producers have likely taken the prevent-plant route. Moreover, a delay in the winter wheat harvest could compound the uncertainties around plantings.
USDA reported soybean plantings had advanced to 93% as of June 15, which was one-point behind average for the period. Kentucky continued to lag by the widest margin, though efforts were also behind in half of the top producing states.
90-day outlook: Pressure on the U.S. dollar since the beginning of the year has been a boon for export demand, as has a coinciding increase in the Brazilian Real. (Read From the Bullpen in the Pro Farmer Newsletter for details). Earlier today, USDA reported net soybean sales during the week ended June 12 totaled 539,500 MT, up noticeably from the marketing-year low notched during the week prior. Net sales topped analysts’ pre-report expectations, which ranged from 0 to 400,000 MT. Traders will continue to closely monitor the dollar and exports, especially amid elevated domestic demand prospects in the wake of the biomass biodiesel mandate.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 65% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 65% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW wheat futures fell 6 1/2 cents to $5.67 3/4 and near the daily low after hitting a nearly three-month high early on. For the week, July SRW gained 24 cents. July HRW wheat futures lost 8 cents to $5.63 1/4 and near the session low after also scoring a nearly three-month high in overnight trade. On the week, July HRW rose 22 1/2 cents. July spring wheat futures fell 7 1/2 cents to $6.38 3/4, marking a 4 1/2-cent gain on the week.
5-day outlook: The winter wheat market bulls had a very good week and Friday’s downside price corrections were not unhealthy in the fledgling price uptrends on the daily charts. Early next week wheat traders will focus on updated weather forecasts and Monday afternoon’s crop progress reports.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW wheat country net drying is expected across the region today into Sunday with increasing heat and wind as a high-pressure ridge builds in. “This will be great for the southeastern part of the region that has been too wet in the recent couple of months. However, it may be too late for some winter wheat crops.” Soil moisture is getting a little low in the farthest western counties. Some timely rain is expected in the west next week. “The bottom line is that conditions should involve improvement in the next seven to ten days.” In the northern Plains, mostly favorable conditions are expected in the next ten days. Some light frost remains a possibility mainly in western production areas of Montana Monday morning.
U.S. spring wheat rallied this week to a four-month high. USDA continues to show an improvement in U.S. HRS growing areas, though some concern continues regarding the Montana crop and into the Canadian Prairies, which remain too dry.
30-day outlook: For the recent upturn in the winter wheat futures prices to be sustained, risk aversion in the general marketplace cannot be overly elevated, which would spook wheat traders and be bearish for all the grain markets. The Israel-Iran war remains near the front burner of the general marketplace. Any escalation that draws the U.S. into the military action would likely sink the U.S. stock market, at least initially, and have the speculative grain market bulls running for cover.
The late-June USDA acreage updates and quarterly stocks reports will be a major data point for grain traders.
As the calendar turns to July soon, corn and soybean growing conditions become more critical, especially for corn. July is also the timeframe when Midwest temperatures rise and rainfall becomes less abundant. A heat dome over the Midwest in the coming days reminds traders that more years than not, some degree of a weather-market scare occurs in the corn and soybean futures markets. That’s why the wheat markets in the coming weeks will very likely be following the daily price action in the corn and soybean markets.
90-day outlook: The other major fundamental element in the grain futures markets that has been somewhat overshadowed by the heightened Middle East tensions the past week is global trade relations. It’s very likely U.S. trade deals, or lack thereof, will be a heavy influencer of wheat futures price action the next few months. New trade deals and improved U.S. China trade relations are what the wheat bulls need to see prices revisit levels seen in early this year and in 2024. USDA this morning reported U.S. wheat export sales totaling 427,200 MT for 2025-26, above a week ago and in the middle of the range of pre-report expectations. U.S. wheat exports need to continue to improve in the coming months to keep price uptrends in winter wheat futures alive.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton fell 80points to 64.04 cents, and marked a 132-point weekly loss.
5-day outlook: Nearby cotton futures continued to face technical pressure to the lowest level since early April. Today’s low-range close opens the door for extended selling next week, though a reach into technically oversold territory may limit momentum. However, a subdued tone is likely to persist into USDA’s Acreage Report, due out June 30.
30-day outlook: USDA reported cotton plantings were 85% complete as of June 15, up nine percentage points from the previous week but still five points behind average. Mississippi continues to lag by the largest margin, though ten of the top 15 producing states were experiencing delays.
World Weather Inc. maintains field conditions in the Delta are still too wet, though drier weather is expected over the next couple of weeks. Meanwhile, West Texas rainfall will be more limited over the next seven days, but crop improvements are likely because of recent rain.
90-day outlook: A weaker U.S. dollar and low prices have failed to inspire much export demand over the past marketing-year, while robust interest rates and lingering tariff uncertainties continue to have negative implications on domestic demand. The marketplace continues to look for a trade deal confirming U.S. demand.
Earlier today, USDA reported weekly cotton sales of 83,200 RB for the week ended June 12, up 38% from the previous week but down 23% from the previous four-week average. Meanwhile exports for the week totaled 204,700 RB, down 14% from the previous week and 24% from the four-week average.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.