Corn
Price action: July corn fell 9 1/2 cents to $4.19 1/4, a new contract low close. December futures closed 7 1/2 cents lower at $4.33 3/4.
Fundamental analysis: Nearby corn futures dove to a new contract low to start the week, pressured by a broad risk-off sentiment across the marketplace amid growing geopolitical tension in the Middle East, following a U.S. military strike on three of Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Meanwhile, excessive heat is moving across the U.S. Midwest, which will induce accelerated drying and raise crop stress in a few of the driest areas, notes World Weather Inc. South Dakota, Iowa, southern Minnesota and Wisconsin have been the driest recently and will receive significant rain this week, improving crop and field conditions. Warm temps in other parts of the Midwest have been helpful in improving heat units, though timely rain will be needed in early July to maintain the best possible crop conditions.
In South America, southern portions of Brazil’s corn production areas will receive additional rain over the coming week that will further bolster soil moisture for late-planted safrinha corn resulting in higher yields. However, some drying will be needed soon in the south to expedite corn maturation and eventual harvesting. Center west crop areas, however, will not see much moisture and crop stress is expected to increase. AgRural reported harvest in Brazil’s center-south region had harvest 13% of the second safrinha crop as of last Thursday, up from 5.2% the previous week but well below the 34% reported for the same period last year.
Earlier today, USDA reported net inspections of 1.48 MMT (58.1 million bu.) for the week ended Jun 19, down 218,867 MT from the previous week but within pre-report expectations from 1.2 MMT to 1.6 MMT.
Technical analysis: July corn futures notched a fresh contract low close as technical pressure from the 10-, 20- and 40-day moving averages, layered from $4.34 to $4.39 3/4 continued to force to the downside. Meanwhile, initial support will now serve at today’s contract low of $4.17 1/4, with bears obviously looking to breach support at $4.00.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans slid 9 1/4 cents to $10.58 3/4, while November futures skid 14 cents to $10.46 3/4. July meal fell $1.7 to $282.4. July bean oil plunged 123 points to 53.24 cents.
Fundamental analysis: Heavy selling was featured across the ag complex today and the soybean complex was not immune, with each product seeing sharp losses. Heavy selling was featured in crude oil today. Oil continues to flow through the Strait of Hormuz and that is not likely to change, even with the recent uptick in shipping costs. Crude oil fell despite Iran retaliating today against a U.S. base in Qatar. Iran reportedly told U.S. authorities of the impending attack, showing relatively stable relations between the two nations, in spite of recent attacks.
The ongoing volatility in the marketplace is unlikely to compel traders to become entrenched in positions across the ag complex in the near term. Crude is one of the most watched commodities and traded in a 12%+ range today.
USDA reported soybean export inspections of 192,890 MT (7.1 million bu.) for the week ended June 19, down 30,551 MT from the previous week and short of pre-report expectations from 200,000 to 450,000 MT.
USDA will release their weekly Crop Progress reports this afternoon. A Bloomberg poll shows analysts see plantings wrapping up at 97% completed. The “good” to “excellent” rating is seen as climbing a point to 67%. Weather over the coming week is seen as improving this week for the crop, as the heat wave is seen moving out of the Midwest and into the coastal states. Rains are anticipated across the Midwest, says World Weather Inc.
Technical analysis: November soybeans opened higher overnight but reversed lower, sustaining sharp selling pressure today. Bulls continue to maintain a slight technical advantage. Support comes in at $10.44 1/2, the 20-day moving average, which stifled selling efforts today. Weakness below that mark has bears eyeing support at $10.39. Meanwhile, psychological resistance stands at $10.50, while strength above that level targets resistance at $10.60.
July meal futures hit a fresh contract low today. While losses were less than seen in soybeans and bean oil, prices remain on contract lows. Support comes in at $281.4 on continued weakness then $280.0. Resistance stands at $285.0 then the 10-day moving average at $287.8.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 65% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 65% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW wheat fell 15 cents to $5.52 3/4, near the session low. July HRW wheat fell 13 1/4 cents to $5.50, near the daily low. July HRS futures fell 12 cents to $6.26 3/4.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw solid selling pressure today on profit-taking from recent gains and as the general marketplace is pensive after the weekend U.S. military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities that saw Iran retaliate against the U.S. today. A big drop in crude oil prices today also worked in favor of the wheat market bears.
USDA this morning reported U.S. wheat export inspections of 254,782 MT for the week ended June 19, down 208,660 MT from the previous week and near the low-end of pre-report expectations.
World Weather Inc. today said less rain in the southern U.S. Plains and lower Midwest during the weekend and that expected this week “will be good for wheat maturation and eventual harvesting. Rain that fell in Canada and the northern U.S. Plains during the weekend and that which is coming will also benefit spring cereals.” Meantime, drying in Europe will be good for wheat filling and maturation. However, some of the yield may be down this year because of dryness at times. Russia’s southern region, eastern Ukraine and Kazakhstan are drying down again. “Relief in parts of this region will be slow to come, although quite likely in the coming week.” Russia’s New Lands region is “maintaining a great long term outlook for spring cereals,” said World Weather.
This afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports are expected to show U.S. spring wheat conditions at 57% good to excellent as of Sunday—the same as last week and compares to 71% at the same time last year. U.S. winter wheat condition is seen at 52% good to excellent—also the same as last week and compares to 52% at the same time last year. U.S. winter wheat harvested is expected to be 21% complete as of Sunday, compared to 10% done one week ago and 40% done at the same time last year. These figures come from a Bloomberg survey of analysts.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but need to show fresh power soon to keep it. Prices are still in uptrends on the daily bar charts. The next upside price objective for the SRW bulls is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $5.78 1/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of $5.22 1/4. First resistance is seen at $5.60 and then at today’s high of $5.70. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.49 1/2 and then at $5.40.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $5.75 1/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of $5.17 3/4. First resistance is seen at $5.60 and then at today’s high of $5.65 3/4. First support is seen at $5.40 and then at $5.30.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton fell 4 points to 64.00 cents, a contract low close. December futures rose 71 points to 67.41 cents.
Fundamental analysis: July cotton futures edged modestly lower as technical pressure and a general risk-off sentiment continued to activate sellers. Crude oil volatility had minimal effect on the natural fiber, with support stemming from stabilization in equities as the session progressed. However, the situation remains fluid as retaliatory response is expected from Iran.
USDA will release its weekly Crop Progress & Condition Report after the close, which will include planting estimates and crop ratings. World Weather Inc. reports field conditions remain too wet in portions of the Delta, though drier weather is expected over the next couple of weeks. Meanwhile, portions of the southeastern U.S. will see a good mix of rain and sunshine during the next two weeks. In West Texas, rainfall is expected to be more limited over the next seven days, and dryland areas are in need of rain.
Technical analysis: July cotton futures edged to the lowest level since early April, driven by technical pressure from the 10-, 20- and 40-day moving averages, layered from 65.08 cents to 65.95 cents. Meanwhile, support at 63.69 cents held into the close, though bears are likely charged for a test of the April 4 low of 62.05 cents. Meanwhile, bulls need to edge back above the 100-day moving average of 66.98 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.