Corn
Price action: July corn fell 9 3/4 cents to $4.34 3/4, a one-week low close.
Fundamental analysis: Corn futures edged lower to start the week, as crude oil weakness offset support from a weaker U.S. dollar. Another strong week of export inspections left traders unimpressed as widespread rains are expected across the Midwest over the next two weeks. However, World Weather Inc. notes that does not mean soil moisture will be perfect for all production areas, with dryness a concern in a part of the Northern Plains and some areas of the Corn Belt. Meanwhile, the Southern Plains should see less frequent rainfall over the next two weeks.
USDA reported weekly corn inspections totaled 1.67 MMT (65.9 million bu.) for the week ended June 12, down 55,866 MT from the previous week but near the upper end of pre-report expectations from 1.0 MMT to 1.7 MMT. Cumulative shipments continue to run ahead of the seasonal pace needed to outpace USDA’s revised export target of 2.650 MMT.
USDA will update crop condition ratings this afternoon, with analysts expecting corn at 72% “good” to “excellent” on average.
Technical analysis: July corn ended the session below the 10-day moving average of $4.38 1/2 as bears continue to show force. Initial support will now serve at $4.31 1/4, then at the June 9 low of $4.29 1/4. The next upside price objective for bulls is to close above resistance at $4.64 3/4, with first resistance at $4.46 1/2, then $4.50.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans closed steady at $10.69 3/4 though nearer session lows. July meal plunged $8.2 to $283.7, on session lows. July bean oil closed up the limit, rising 450 points to 55.11 cents.
Fundamental analysis: Soybeans struggled to build on overnight gains and saw heavy selling pressure this morning. Bulls managed to keep losses minimal, but bulls failing to followthrough on Friday’s strength and continued strength in soyoil, which traded at the highest mark since Oct. 2023 today, was a bad sign for bulls. Weakness in both corn and wheat was certainly an anchor on prices as well, as big losses in corn drew from buying interest.
USDA reported soybean export inspections of 215,803 MT (7.9 million bu.), down 342,813 MT from the previous week but within the pre-report range of expectations from 175,000 to 450,000 MT. Inspections coming sharply below week ago was disappointing, but it is key to remember that historically inspections are low this time of year as most importers switch purchases to Brazil.
Today’s NOPA crush report for May came in at 192.829 million bushels, up 2.603 million bushels from April. It was bearish against expectations, as it was below trade forecasts of 193.519 million bushels from Reuters. Meanwhile, NOPA soybean oil stocks totaled 1,373 million pounds and were down 154.3 million pounds from last month’s figure. Stocks came well below the average trade estimate of 1,451 million pounds in the Reuter’s survey. Use for biofuels has shot higher, helping fuel the rally seen in soyoil today.
Technical analysis: July beans struggled to build on overnight strength as prices closed nearer session lows. Still, bulls held key support today and maintained the technical advantage. Key support stands at $10.63 3/4, the 200-day moving average. A break below that mark would eye support at $10.57 3/4, which is quickly backed by the 10-day moving average at $10.56 1/2. Resistance stands at the psychological $10.75 mark on another push higher, which is reinforced by today’s high of $10.79 1/4.
July meal futures saw heavy spread driven selling today as bean oil closed up for the second straight session. Prices closed at contract lows as bears retain the technical advantage. Additional selling finds tentative support at $280.0, which is reinforced by support at $278.5. Resistance stands at $285.0 then the psychological $290.0 mark on a bounce.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 65% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 65% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW wheat fell 7 1/4 cents to $5.36 1/2, nearer the session low. July HRW wheat sunk 4 3/4 cents to $5.36, near mid-range. July spring wheat futures slid 11 1/2 cents to $6.22 3/4.
Fundamental analysis: The wheat futures markets saw sympathy selling today as the corn futures market suffered strong losses. A weaker U.S. dollar index and improved risk appetite in the general marketplace to start the trading week did somewhat limit selling pressure in wheat.
Weather conditions are a mixed bag for the North American wheat markets. World Weather Inc. today said Canada’s prairies and northern Montana “are too dry and crop stress continues to rise as each day goes by.” There is potential for rainfall in these areas this week into next week, but its distribution will not be even. Southern parts of the U.S. Plains will receive less rain during the next 10 days, which should translate into better crop maturation and eventual harvest conditions. “Dry and warm- biased weather is needed in hard red winter wheat areas and in some neighboring areas of the Midwest to support crop maturation and eventual harvesting.”
USDA this morning reported U.S. wheat export inspections of 388,752 MT for the week ended June 12, up 64,545 MT from the previous week and within pre-report expectations.
This afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports are expected to show the U.S. winter wheat crop at 11% harvested as of Sunday versus 27% complete at the same time last year. The winter wheat crop is expected to be in 54% “good” to “excellent” conditions as of Sunday, compared to 49% in the same categories at the same time last year. The U.S. spring wheat condition is seen at 54% “good” to “excellent” conditions as of Sunday, compared to 53% last week and 76% in the same conditions last year.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the overall near-term technical advantage amid choppy trading. The next upside price objective for the SRW bulls is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at the June high of $5.57 3/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.06 1/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.46 3/4 and then at $5.57 3/4. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.31 3/4 and then at last week’s low of $5.22 1/4.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at the June high of $5.51. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.44 1/4 and then at $5.51. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.29 and then at last week’s low of $5.17 3/4.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop production. You should be 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop production. You should be 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton rose 8 points to 65.44 cents, marking high-range close.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures rose modestly in narrow trade, continuing recent sideways consolidation. A weaker U.S. dollar and technical support at the March low has curbed seller interest, though crude oil volatility and overhead technicals continue to crimp buyer interest. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve will hold its FOMC meeting this week, though no changes to interest rates are expected.
USDA will release its weekly Crop Progress & Condition Report following the close. Field conditions in portions of the Delta are still too wet, which will continue to dampen planting efforts, though World Weather Inc. reports more rain will fall over the coming ten days, maintaining concern over crop development. Portions of the southeastern U.S. will get rain in the coming week to maintain a mostly favorable environment, though drier and warmer weather is needed. In West Texas, rainfall will be more limited over the next ten days, but crop improvements are likely because of recent rain.
Technical analysis: July cotton futures continue to be limited by the 10- and 20-day moving averages of 65.48 cents and 65.577 cents, while initial support remains at 64.90 cents. Bears will look to secure a close below the April 4 low of 62.05 cents, while bulls look toward the April high of 69.75 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.