Corn
Price action: March corn futures rose 5 cents to $4.50, near the daily high and hit a two-week high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw good gain on a “Turnaround Tuesday” trade by the speculators. Good gains in the winter wheat futures market today also supported buying interest in corn. Improved trader/investor risk appetite in the general marketplace today also helped out the corn market bulls.
Pro Farmer crop consultant Michael Cordonnier lowered his 2025-26 Brazilian corn production estimate by 2.0 MMT, to 138.0 MMT, and has a neutral to lower bias going forward due to potential delays in planting the safrinha corn crop. He kept his Argentine production estimate at 54.0 MMT.
World Weather Inc. today Brazil rainfall was restricted during the weekend and greater rain is needed to ensure the best possible crop development. Fieldwork advanced with little weather-related delay. Net drying is expected in southern Brazil during the coming 10 days, while timely rain falls in most other areas. Crop conditions should remain mostly good, although a close watch on southern Brazil soil moisture is going to be necessary as time moves along. Recent rain in Argentina was great for ongoing crop development and planting. A favorable mix of weather will continue for a while, although a few pockets of dryness will pop up as time moves along.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls have regained the overall near-term technical advantage with today’s gains. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close March prices above solid chart resistance at the November high of $4.57. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at last week’s low of $4.34 1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.52 1/4 and then at $4.57. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.42 1/4 and then at $4.37 1/2.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: January soybeans fell 3 1/4 cents to $11.24 3/4, near the session low. March soybean meal lost $2.90 to $316.60, nearer the daily low and hit a three-week low. March soybean oil rose 34 points to 53.18 cents, nearer the daily high and hit a 2.5-month high.
Fundamental analysis: Soybean and meal futures saw modest technical selling pressure today as the near-term chart postures for both markets have deteriorated just recently. Spreaders were again featured buying bean oil and selling meal futures today.
Pro Farmer crop consultant Michael Cordonnier lowered his 2025-26 Brazilian soybean production estimated by 1.0 MMT, to 176.0 MMT, noting a neutral to lower bias amid delayed plantings, irregular rainfall and intense heat in various parts of the country. Cordonnier kept his Argentine soybean production estimate unchanged at 49.0 MMT.
Argentina’s soybean sowing is progressing far slower than usual, with only 11% of the crop planted as of Nov. 26, compared to 36% at the same time a year ago and the five year average of 44%.
World Weather Inc. today said that in Brazil, an improving trend for rain and conditions for crops will occur through the next two weeks across the northern region, where frequent rounds of rain are expected and notable improvements in soil moisture likely result. Central and southern Brazil and Paraguay will see a mix of rain and sunshine during the next two weeks, allowing fieldwork to advance well while soil moisture remains supportive of crop development. In Argentina, two rounds of timely rain and some showers during the next two weeks will help to ensure much of the country has enough soil moisture for crops to develop favorably with continued exceptions in some of the drier areas of the west, where recent rain was not great enough to induce lasting increases in soil moisture. Fieldwork should advance well during the next two weeks around the expected precipitation. Crop stress should rise in western Argentina when drier weather resumes Dec. 9-12 with a close watch warranted on rain advertised for Dec. 13-16.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a bearish head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern could now be forming on the daily bar chart. Prices are still trending higher on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing January prices above solid resistance at the November high of $11.69 1/2. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $11.42 1/4 and then at $11.50. First support is seen at $11.20 and then at $11.13 1/4.
March soybean meal bulls still have lost their overall near-term technical advantage. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated and a bearish head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in March futures above solid technical resistance at the November high of $335.80. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $300.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $321.30 and then at this week’s high of $324.80. First support is seen at $315.00 and then at $312.50.
Bean oil bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing March prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of 54.40 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of 50.32 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 53.38 cents and then at 54.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 52.23 cents and then at 52.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: March SRW rose 6 cents to $5.41, nearer the daily high and hit a five-week low early on. March HRW gained 6 1/4 cents to $5.33, nearer the daily high and hit a two-week high. March spring wheat futures rose 4 3/4 cents to $5.80 3/4.
Fundamental analysis: Winter wheat markets today saw short covering and some perceived bargain hunting. Rising Black Sea tensions are a focus of wheat traders. Russian President Vladimir Putin warned Europe today that it would face swift defeat if it went to war with Russia and dismissing proposals on Ukraine ahead of a Kremlin meeting with two of President Trump’s most powerful envoys, according to Reuters.
Ukraine has almost completed sowing the 2026 winter wheat crop, and the crop is in good condition overall, according to the major farmer’s union UAC earlier today.
Ajay Goyal, Chairman of the Wheat Products Promotion Society, said India is heading into one of its biggest wheat surpluses ever, making a review of the export ban almost unavoidable next year. He stated that with government stocks likely to cross 50 MMT by June 1, the policy direction must change simply because “the market doesn’t need the government wheat this year.”
World Weather Inc. today said winter crop conditions in most of the world are favorable. Crops in the Northern Hemisphere are largely dormant or semi-dormant. Sufficient snow cover will be present to protect crops in most of North America and Asia in areas where temperatures might be a threat. Drought is a concern in the Middle East, Morocco and Northwestern Algeria. Crop moisture conditions have improved this autumn in portions of the U.S. Plains, Midwest, Europe (including France) and the former Soviet Union. Crops may not be as well established as desired in a few China production areas in the North China Plain and Yellow River Basin. India, however, is expected to have a well-established small grain crop with good yield potentials. Harvesting in Australia, South Africa and South America has advanced around periods of rain and most crops are suspected of being in good shape with little change likely for a while, said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending down on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the November high of $5.68. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.08 1/2. First resistance is seen at $5.45 and then at $5.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.29 3/4 and then at $5.25.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the November high of $5.33 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $4.98 3/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.36 1/4 and then at $5.40. First support is seen at last week’s low of $5.19 1/2 and then at $5.10.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton fell 6 points to 64.57 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures traders took a pause today. Recent price action in March cotton begins to suggest a near-term price bottom may be in place. However, bulls need to step up and show fresh power this week to better suggest such.
World Weather Inc. today said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see dry weather through most of the next two weeks and harvesting should advance well around a few infrequent showers, while some discolored cotton should be bleached white. Snow will fall on much of the region Wednesday into Thursday when totals up to 2” and locally more will be common with some southern areas dry. The Blacklands, Coastal Bend, and South Texas will see regular rounds of isolated to scattered showers through the next two weeks and localized improvements in soil moisture are likely.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in March futures above technical resistance at the October high of 67.57 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 63.00 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 64.95 cents and then at 65.50 cents. First support is seen at last week’s low of 63.89 cents and then at 63.50 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 15% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 15% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.