Corn
Price action: December corn futures rose 3 1/4 cents to $4.20 3/4, nearer the session high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures bulls are getting a little upside traction late this week and have at least appeared to stabilize prices after an early-week downturn. Short covering and perceived bargain hunting were featured today.
USDA this morning reported daily sales of 284,196 MT of U.S. corn to unknown destinations, of which 83,956 MT were slated for 2024-25 and 200,240 MT for 2025-26. USDA also reported net sales totaling 135,000 MT for delivery to South Korea during 2025-26, initially erroneously reported for China.
The agency also reported weekly U.S. corn export sales of 643,100 MT for 2024-25 for the week ended July 17, which were up noticeably from the previous week but down 2% from the prior four-week average. Net sales for 2025-26 totaled 733,900 MT. Analysts expected sales of 100,000 to 800,000 MT for 2024-25 and 400,000 to 800,000 MT for 2025-26.
World Weather Inc. today said Corn Belt crop weather will see some net drying during a portion of the forecast, which is not unusual during the heart of summer. No excessive heat or blocking ridge of high pressure is expected, although there will be some developing dryness in the southwest part of the Midwest and neighboring areas of the Delta. A few days of net drying may firm the soil in parts of the Midwest, “but as long as timely returns within a few days the impact should be low and the bottom line for crops will remain favorable.”
Technical analysis: The corn futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $4.30 1/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the contract low of $4.07 1/2. First resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of $4.24 3/4 and then at $4.30 1/4. First support is seen at this week’s low of $4.15 3/4 and then at $4.10.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans rose 1 1/2 cents to $10.24 1/4 and near mid-range. September soybean meal fell $2.30 to $273.90, nearer the daily low. September soybean oil rose 53 points to 56.47 cents, near the daily high and closed at an 11-month high close.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean market is languishing late this week, as the soybean meal futures market bulls struggle and cannot seem to get out of their own way. Meal futures prices are not far above their contract lows. A stagnant corn futures market and weaker winter wheat prices also limited buying interest in beans today.
World Weather Inc. today said thunderstorm activity in the Midwest the next seven days will be frequent and there will be potential for some areas of flooding, especially flash flooding. “The rain should be beneficial in a majority of the region, but there will be some pockets of significant rain that may prove damaging.” Warm temperatures will bring on quick drying between rain events, leading to the greatest fieldwork delays being mostly where rain is most frequent. A majority of the region will be drier-biased next Sunday into Tuesday, with thunderstorm activity limited mainly to far northeastern areas, due to a temporary expansion of the high-pressure ridge before a surge of unusually cool air starts to come down into the region from the north.
USDA today reported U.S. soybean export sales of 160,900 MT for 2024-25 for the week ended July 17, down 41% from the previous week and 59% from the four-week average. Net sales for 2025-26 totaled 238,800 MT. Analysts expected sales of 100,000 to 350,000 MT for 2024-25 and 250,000 to 500,000 MT for 2025-26.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field amid choppy trading. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at $10.60. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of $9.98 1/2. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $10.35 1/2 and then at last week’s high of $10.43 1/4. First support is seen at $10.10 and then at $9.98 1/2.
Soybean meal bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in September futures above solid technical resistance at the July high of $285.40. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $268.70. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $279.20 and then at this week’s high of $281.70. First support is seen at this week’s low of $273.50 and then at $270.00.
Bean oil bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing September prices above solid technical resistance at 60.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 53.00 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 56.99 cents and then at 58.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 54.79 cents and then at 54.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 65% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 65% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat closed steady at $5.61 1/4, near mid-range. December HRW wheat rose 3 3/4 cents to $5.48 3/4, nearer the daily high. Spring wheat futures fell 2 1/2 cents to $5.85 1/2.
Fundamental analysis: Mild technical selling was featured early on in the winter wheat futures markets today, but some short covering and perceived bargain buying from the speculators surfaced in late trading to lift prices up from their daily lows. A firmer U.S. dollar index today was an outside-market negative for the wheat markets.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. export sales of 712,200 MT for 2025-26 for the week ended July 17, up 44% from the previous week and 50% from the four-week average. Sales topped the range of pre-report expectations from 250,000 MT to 500,000 MT.
World Weather Inc. reports wheat conditions in Canada “are a concern with parts of the Prairies losing yield potential because of dryness.” Some rain fell recently to improve a part of the crop, but production of wheat, barley and oats will be below normal. U.S. wheat production has been favorable in the Midwest and northern Plains. Harvesting in the central Plains has advanced well. Dryness in the Pacific Northwest hurt dryland production this year while irrigated crops likely performed normally. Most of the winter wheat in Europe and Russia is being harvested and will not likely respond well to rain in the future. Production cuts for winter crops have not been as great as feared in Europe, said World Weather.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, there are stiff chart support levels that lie just below present prices. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.95. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.43 3/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.66 and then at this week’s high of $5.72 3/4. First support is seen at the July low of $5.52 3/4 and then at $5.43 3/4.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.75. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.25. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $5.58 3/4 and then at $5.61 1/2. First support is seen at the contract low of $5.38 and then at $5.30.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton rose 47 points to 68.71 cents, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton market saw some technical buying featured today as the bulls are working on a price uptrend on the daily bar chart.
USDA today reported U.S. cotton net export sales reductions totaling 32,700 RB for 2024/2025 were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases reported for Vietnam, Honduras and Thailand. Reductions were primarily for Turkey, Pakistan, South Korea, Indonesia and Mexico. Net sales of 132,600 RB for 2025/2026 primarily for Vietnam, Pakistan, Guatemala, Thailand and Turkey. Reductions were seen for Mexico, Japan, Nicaragua and Honduras. Exports of 184,800 RB were up 18 percent from the previous week, but down 12 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam, Pakistan, Turkey, India and Bangladesh.
World Weather Inc. today said recent showers in West Texas “were welcome, although greater rain that is better distributed is still needed.” Warm to hot temperatures in the next 10 days will be supportive of aggressive crop development in areas with favorable soil moisture and/or plenty of irrigation water.Other areas in Texas will not likely get enough rain to counter evaporation for a while. U.S. Delta crops will likely dry down in the coming week while temperatures trend warmer. The environment may benefit cotton in many areas. Some cooling and rain is possible in the first week of August.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls have gained the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls are working on a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at the June high of 69.52 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the July low of 67.13 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 69.15 cents and then at 69.52 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 68.24 cents and then at this week’s low of 67.80 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 75% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 75% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.