Corn
Price action: December corn futures fell 3 cents to $4.11, nearer the session low and closed at a contract low close.
Fundamental analysis: The corn market is again succumbing to increased technical selling pressure as December futures approach the contract low. A drop below that level is likely to trigger pre-placed sell stops that would drive prices even lower. Weather in the Corn Belt continues to lean price-bearish. A solid rally in the U.S. dollar index to a five-week high today was a bearish outside-market element for the grain markets.
World Weather Inc. today said U.S. crop weather has been and will continue mostly good over the next ten days to two weeks. Cool temperatures will slow drying rates and that may lead to greater concern about excessive moisture in a few areas. Brazil’s Safrinha corn is maturing and being harvested and the environment “has been quite good for those purposes.” Some rain is expected over the next week to ten days that may disrupt farming activity periodically in the south, said the forecaster.
USDA Monday afternoon reported the U.S. corn crop was 73% “good” to “excellent” as of July 27, down 1 percentage point from the previous week, while the “poor” to “very poor” rating stood at 7%. On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 representing perfect), the corn crop improved less than 1 point to 385.8.
Technical analysis: The corn futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and have gained fresh power this week. Prices are in a 3.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $4.30 1/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the contract low of $4.07 1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.15 and then at this week’s high of $4.19 3/4. First support is seen at $4.07 1/2 and then at $4.00.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 3 1/4 cents to $10.08 1/2, hit a two-week low and closed near mid-range. September soybean meal fell $3.00 to $266.40, nearer the daily low and hit a contract low. September soybean oil rose 93 points to 57.20 cents, near the daily high and closed at a 12-month high close.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and meal markets saw technical selling pressure today as their near-term chart postures have deteriorated the past week. It appears the spread traders were active today, selling soybean meal and buying soybean oil. A rally in the U.S. dollar index to a five-week high today was also a negative for soybeans and meal today. Higher crude oil prices supported buying interest in bean oil.
USDA’s unexpected improvement in the U.S. soybean crop condition conditions also weighed on beans and meal. USDA reported the soybean crop was 70% “good” to “excellent” as of July 27, up 2 points from the previous week while 6% was rated “poor” to “very poor.” On our CCI, the soybean crop improved 2.9 points, hovering just above last year.
World Weather Inc. today said “another two weeks of favorable conditions for crop development and very high production potentials are expected for the Midwest. Soil moisture is favorable in nearly all of the region and with regular rounds of rain expected through Aug. 10 and mild temperatures Wednesday through at least early next week, the soil should be moist enough to favorably support crop development deep into August.” Some crops in the south-central and southwestern Corn Belt will be stressed by highs in the upper 90s today, before temperatures become much cooler Wednesday through early next week.
Technical analysis: The soybean bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at $10.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of $9.98 1/2. First resistance is seen at $10.20 and then at $10.30. First support is seen at today’s low of $10.04 1/2 and then at the July low of $9.98 1/2.
Soybean meal bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in September futures above solid technical resistance at the July high of $285.40. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $260.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $270.40 and then at this week’s high of $272.70. First support is seen at today’s low of $265.70 and then at $263.00.
Bean oil bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a choppy, five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing September prices above solid technical resistance at 60.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 54.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 57.35 cents and then at 58.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 55.80 cents and then at 55.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 65% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 65% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat fell 8 3/4 cents to $5.50, nearer the daily low and closed at a contract low close. December HRW wheat lost 7 1/4 cents to $5.39 1/2, nearer the daily low and hit a contract low today. December HRS fell 3 cents to $6.00.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets today fell victim to chart-based selling and losses in corn and soybean futures. A rally in the U.S. dollar index this week to a five-week high is also a bearish outside-market element for wheat.
USDA Monday afternoon rated the U.S. spring wheat crop as 49% “good” to “excellent” and 16% “poor” to “very poor” as of Sunday. On our CCI, the spring wheat crop declined 5 points and sits 39 points below year-ago.
World Weather Inc. today said wheat conditions in Canada are a concern, with parts of the Prairies losing yield potential because of dryness. Some rain fell recently to improve a part of the crop, “but production of wheat, barley and oats will be below normal. U.S. wheat production has been favorable in the Midwest and northern Plains. Harvesting in the central Plains has advanced well. Dryness in the Pacific Northwest hurt dryland production this year while irrigated crops likely performed normally, said World Weather.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. However, there are stiff chart support levels that lie just below present prices. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.80. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.43 3/4. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $5.59 3/4 and then at last week’s high of $5.72 3/4. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.46 1/4 and then at $5.43 3/4.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.70. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.25. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $5.49 1/2 and then at last week’s high of $5.58 3/4. First support is seen at today’s contract low of $5.36 3/4 and then at $5.30.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton fell 67 points to 67.67 cents, nearer the daily low and hit a two-week low.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market was hit with technical selling pressure today. A stronger U.S. dollar index that hit a five-week high today was also a daily negative for cotton.
U.S.-China trade talks in Stockholm, Sweden have ended, reports said. Cotton traders are awaiting results to be reported.
USDA Monday afternoon reported the U.S. cotton crop in 55% good to excellent condition, and 14% in poor to very poor condition. Forty-four percent of the crop was setting pods as of Sunday, which is just below average.
World Weather Inc. today said west Texas cotton areas still need greater rain and some additional warm weather to support the best dryland production. Other areas in Texas are seeing highly varying weather and soil conditions. “Timely rain will become increasingly more important as the next two weeks move along to ensure the best crop development and yield potential.” U.S. Delta crops are drying down, although it looks as though timely rain may evolve late this week into next week. The southeastern U.S. cotton areas in the nation are also expected to receive periodic rain, said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls have lost their slight overall near-term technical advantage. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at the June high of 69.52 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the July low of 67.13 cents. First resistance is seen at 68.00 cents and then at this week’s high of 68.77 cents. First support is seen at 67.50 cents and then at 67.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 75% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 75% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.