Corn
Price action: May corn futures rose 9 1/4 cents to $4.63 1/4, near the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw renewed technical buying as the near-term technical posture favors the bulls. Higher crude oil prices today also prompted some buying interest in the grains.
The Trump administration announced a 60-day waiver of the Jones Act shipping law, temporarily allowing foreign-flagged vessels to move fuel, fertilizer and other goods between U.S. ports as soaring energy and agricultural prices strain supply chains amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
World Weather Inc. today said central and southern Brazil and Paraguay will have good opportunities for fieldwork during the next two weeks and Safrinha corn planting should advance well. However, a significant portion of the crop will be planted after the ideal planting period and some producers may plant a crop other than corn. Parts of the region still have marginal to short soil moisture and conditions for Safrinha corn development will often be poor until greater rain falls and rain this week and later this month will induce improvements in soil and crop conditions. Northern Brazil will see regular rain during the next two weeks and fieldwork will be slowed at times while crop development will occur favorably. In Argentina, regular rounds of rain will occur during the next two weeks and all areas will see multiple rounds of precipitation that will slow fieldwork while improving conditions for immature crops in the drier areas. The drier areas will receive enough rain to induce significant improvements in soil moisture and at least a partial restoration of yield potentials.
Technical analysis: A price uptrend is still in place on the daily bar chart and a bullish symmetrical triangle pattern has now formed in May futures. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close May prices above solid chart resistance at the March high of $4.76. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at last week’s low of $4.45 1/2. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $4.66 and then at $4.70. First support is seen at $4.57 and then at today’s low of $4.51 1/2.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: May soybeans rose 4 3/4 cents to $11.61 3/4, near the daily high. May soybean meal gained $10.00 to $321.70, near the daily high. May soybean oil fell 44 points to 65.53, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean complex futures today saw bounces from losses suffered earlier this week, with meal leading the way. Bean bulls are trying to stabilize prices but have more work to do this week to achieve such. Today’s decent good gains in meal were encouraging for the bean market bulls. Spreaders today were unwinding long bean oil, short meal spreads.
USDA reported 120,000 MT of soybean meal for delivery to unknown destinations during 2026-27.
World Weather Inc. today said some timely rain fell across interior southern Brazil Tuesday and overnight, offering a short-term bout of relief from recent dry conditions. Additional showers are possible over the next day or two and then a new wave of drying is expected. Center-west and center-south crop areas in Brazil are mostly rated well with little change likely. Southeastern Argentina and Uruguay will receive some needed rain in the coming week, with sufficient amounts to maintain moisture abundance in central Argentina and improve crop and field conditions in the east and into Uruguay.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have lost the overall near-term technical advantage as a price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing May prices above solid resistance at the March high of $12.33 3/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.20. First resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of $11.70 1/2 and then at $11.80. First support is seen at this week’s low of $11.45 1/4 and then at $11.36 1/2.
Soybean meal bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in May futures above solid technical resistance at the February high of $325.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $300.00. First resistance comes in at this week’s high of $319.80 and then at $325.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $311.00 and then at $307.50.
Bean oil bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing May prices above solid technical resistance at the March high of 69.91 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 60.00 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 67.15 cents and then at 68.00 cents. First support is seen at 65.00 cents and then at this week’s low of 63.50.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: May SRW rose 14 1/2 cents to $6.04 1/4, nearer the daily high. May HRW gained 19 1/4 cents to $6.26, nearer the daily high. May spring wheat futures rose 13 cents to $6.37 1/4.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures market saw short covering, bargain hunting and technical buying today, following losses seen earlier this week. Higher crude oil prices also benefited the wheat markets today.
Weather in U.S. winter wheat regions also leans price-friendly. World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, a significant warm-up has begun in the region and temperatures Friday and Saturday will be extreme for this time of year, with record-breaking heat expected. The unusually strong high-pressure ridge responsible for this will also cause a lack of precipitation. Topsoil moisture and subsoil moisture is very short in many areas and this early-season heat wave may stress the winter wheat crop. Cooler weather will arrive Sunday, but more unusual warmth is expected later next week. In the Northern Plains, some limited precipitation will still occur in the next seven days, mainly in northeastern production areas, with significant warmth for this time of year today into Saturday. Temperatures will be well above average into Saturday, with record-breaking heat likely in southwestern production areas and potentially central areas, too. Snow cover will quickly vanish from the region except in the far northeast where some snow is likely to linger. Cooler weather is expected next week.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Price uptrends are in place on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at the March high of $6.41 3/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.63 1/2. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $6.13 3/4 and then at $6.25. First support is seen at $6.00 and then at $5.90.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at the March high of $6.47 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.80. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $6.38 and then at $6.47 1/2. First support is seen at $6.20 and then at $6.10.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: May cotton futures fell 7 points to 68.70 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market today paused following this week’s strong gains. Higher crude oil prices today did limit selling interest in cotton. The market is still supported by news Monday that top U.S. and Chinese economic officials held “remarkably stable” talks in Paris on Sunday. Bulls are hoping more U.S. cotton sales to China will occur this year.
World Weather Inc. today said that in the southern U.S. Plains, dry weather will be most common through the next two weeks, with a few infrequent rounds of precipitation that should not have a lasting impact on soil moisture, leaving much of the region in need of significant rain to improve conditions for planting. The San Joaquin Valley and southern Arizona will see be dry through much of the next two weeks and the few infrequent showers that may occur should not bring enough rain to prevent the moisture from quickly being lost to evaporation.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in May futures above technical resistance at 70.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 66.00 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 69.22 cents and then at 70.00 cents. First support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 67.93 cents and then at 67.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 40% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You are 10% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time
Cash-only marketers: You are 60% sold on 2025-crop. You are 25% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.