Corn
Price action: March corn futures fell 1 1/2 cents to $4.28 3/4, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw some modest follow-through selling pressure today after prices last Friday hit a three-week high. Corn bulls were disappointed their market could get no traction from solid losses in the U.S. dollar index and good gains in crude oil prices today. USDA reported weekly U.S. corn export inspections totaled 1.31 MMT during the week ended Feb. 5, up 160,753 MT from the previous week.
Planting of Brazil’s second corn crop reached 22% of the estimated area as of last Thursday, compared with 20% a year earlier, according to AgRural.
World Weather Inc. today said Paraguay and southern Brazil will benefit from regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms through most of the period from Wednesday into Feb. 23, with exceptions in far southern Brazil Feb. 21-23, when rain should be restricted. Most of the coming rain will not be heavy and will sometimes be poorly distributed, but rain will fall frequently enough to ease crop stress and induce increases in soil moisture while slowing fieldwork. Much of the remainder of Brazil will see regular rounds of rain and favorable conditions for crop development through the next two weeks, while fieldwork is slowed. In Argentina, the southern half of the country will see little rain of significance through Friday and stress to crops should gradually increase in areas that received significant rain during the past week, while steady increases in crop stress occur in the remainder of the region. Totally dry weather is not expected and some showers along with a lack of excessive heat will prevent rapid increases in crop stress. The northern half of Argentina will see regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms during the next two weeks slowing fieldwork allowing for mostly favorable conditions for crop development, but some of the drier areas in central parts of the country will see little rain and rising levels of crop stress into Friday. An important rain event will occur next Saturday into Wednesday of next week when nearly widespread rain brings relief from dryness to the southern half of Argentina before additional showers Feb. 19-23 slow drying rates and buy crops more time to develop with at least some soil moisture.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. However, the bulls need to show fresh power soon to keep the price uptrend alive. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close March prices above solid chart resistance at $4.50. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the January low of $4.17 1/4. First resistance is seen at $4.30 and then at last week’s high of $4.36. First support is seen at $4.24 and then at $4.20.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: March soybeans lost 4 1/2 cents to $11.10 3/4, near mid-range. March soybean meal fell $5.80 to $297.80, nearer the session low. March soybean oil rose 136 points to 56.69, near the session high and closed at a contract high close.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and meal futures markets saw follow-through selling pressure today, after Friday’s price downturns. Soybean oil rallied on hopes of better demand for U.S. bean oil from India, after the U.S. and that nation agreed to a finalized trade deal late last week.
Soybeans got little benefit from USDA today reporting daily U.S. soybean sales of 264,000 MT of soybeans to China during 2025-26. The agency also reported weekly U.S. soybean export inspections totaled 1.14 MMT during the week ended Feb. 5, down 181,510 MT from the previous week.
Brazilian farmers had harvested 16% of their 2025/26 soybean crop as of last Thursday, agribusiness consultancy AgRural said on Monday, up 6 percentage points from the previous week and just topping the 15% reported a year earlier.
World Weather Inc. today said rain expected in southern Brazil and eastern Argentina as well as Uruguay this week into next week will reduce crop stress and improve yield potentials. Follow up rain will be needed and some is expected. Southern Buenos Aires, Argentina may have some ongoing need for greater rain.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. However, the bulls appear tired now. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing March prices above solid resistance at the November high of $11.72 1/2. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of $10.51 3/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $11.16 1/4 and then at $11.25. First support is seen at $11.00 and then at $10.85 1/2.
Soybean meal bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in March futures above solid technical resistance at $310.80. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the February week’s low of $288.30. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $302.30 and then at $306.90. First support is seen at $295.00 and then at $292.00.
Bean oil bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing March prices above solid technical resistance at 58.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of 52.61 cents. First resistance is seen at 57.00 cents and then at 57.50 cents. First support is seen at 56.00 cents and then at today’s low of 55.50 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 50% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 50% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: March SRW fell 1 cent to $5.28 3/4, near mid-range. March HRW lost 2 1/2 cents to $5.28 3/4, near mid-range. March spring wheat futures rose 1/2 of a cent to $5.70 1/2, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets today saw mild chart-based selling as the bulls appear to be tired and recent price uptrends look like they are starting to roll over. Weaker corn and soybean prices today also limited buying interest in wheat. Wheat bulls could not get any traction from solid losses in the U.S. dollar index today, while crude oil prices were higher.
USDA reported weekly U.S. wheat export inspections totaled 580,130 MT during the week ended Feb. 5, up 249,618 MT from the previous week.
Ukraine’s APK-Inform agriculture consultancy has sharply cut its forecast for Ukrainian grain exports in the 2025/26 July-June season to 40.48 million metric tons from 45.18 million tons a month earlier due to slow exports, it said on Sunday.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, unusually warm air will continue to occur through the next seven days, further raising soil temperatures and leading to additional loss of winter hardiness in the winter wheat crop. The best potential for any meaningful precipitation in the next seven days is from a storm system Friday into Saturday. Due to the unusual warmth, this would contain mostly rain. A large unusually cold mass will be growing in Canada next week. Some of this may move south and start to reach the region later this month, at least enough to send temperatures a little below average; though, there is uncertainty in its significance as of right now. In the U.S. Northern Plains, unusual warmth through the next seven days will further chip away at the remaining snowpack in the region, which as of right now is limited to mainly Minnesota and northeastern North Dakota. Precipitation will be limited this week. Temperatures in the second week of the outlook will likely drop below zero Fahrenheit again, so, the need for new snow cover will be high. Some snow should occur as the colder air arrives, but a close monitoring of the forecast will be warranted.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends still in place on the daily bar charts—but just barely. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the November high of $5.68. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.07. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $5.40 and then at the January high of $5.44 3/4. First support is seen at last week’s low of $5.22 1/4 and then at $5.10.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the November high of $5.53 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.16. First resistance is seen at $5.40 and then at the January high of $5.50. First support is seen at $5.25 and then at $5.16.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton rose 55 points to 61.61 cents, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market saw short covering today, after hitting a contract low last Friday. A lower U.S. dollar index and higher crude oil prices today also worked in favor of the cotton market bulls.
World Weather Inc. today said that in Texas, drier weather will be most common through the next two weeks and the infrequent precipitation that occurs should not be great enough to prevent net losses of soil moisture during the period with rapid drying through the next week as temperatures will be much warmer than normal most often. Most southern parts of west Texas will receive up to 0.30” of moisture and locally more Tuesday while light showers occur in parts of the Blacklands and the Coastal Bend. Much of the region from western Texas into southwestern Oklahoma will receive 0.30-0.80” of moisture and locally more Friday into Saturday with up to 0.50” and locally more in the Blacklands and up to 0.30” and locally more in the Coastal Bend.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in March futures above technical resistance at 64.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 60.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 62.00 cents and then at 62.50 cents. First support is seen at the contract low of 60.90 cents and then at 60.50 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 20% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 20% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.