Corn
Price action: March corn futures fell 3 3/4 cents to $4.44 1/4, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market remains trapped in a sideways and choppy trading range, suggesting more of the same in the near term. Selling in the winter wheat futures markets today also spilled over into pressure on corn.
World Weather Inc. today said favorable weather is expected in most of Brazil and northern and central Argentina over the next two weeks, maintaining very good crop development potential. Southern Argentina is expected to dry out, but some timely rain may return again later in the month to prevent stress from becoming a threat to production.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close March prices above solid chart resistance at the November high of $4.57. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the November low of $4.34 1/2. First resistance is seen at $4.50 and then at $4.57. First support is seen at last week’s low of $4.41 3/4 and then at $4.35.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: January soybeans rose 4 cents to $10.91 1/4, nearer the session high and hit a five-week low early on. January soybean meal lost 10 cents to $301.20, nearer the daily high and hit a five-week low early on. January soybean oil rose 7 points to 51.09 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean market today saw tepid short covering and a bit of perceived bargain buying from the speculators. Lower corn and wheat futures prices today did limit the upside in beans.
USDA this morning reported daily U.S. soybean sales of 467,000 MT for delivery during 2025-26. Of the total 331,000 MT were to unknown destinations, while 136,000 MT were to China. An additional 120,000 MT of soybean cake and meal were reported for delivery to Poland, also for the 2025-26 marketing year.
Soybean crush in October likely hit a record 7.027 million short tons, or 234.2 million bushels, according to analysts surveyed ahead of this afternoon’s monthly NASS crush report for October, and as reported by Reuters. If the average of estimates gathered from seven analysts is realized, the crush would be up 8.6% from the 215.8 million bushels processed in October 2024, according to USDA data.
World Weather Inc. today said that in Brazil frequent rain and continued improvements in soil moisture and conditions for crops will occur through the next two weeks across northern Brazil. Exceptions will occur in central and eastern Bahia where little rain is expected through Dec. 20 before a beneficial increase in showers and thunderstorms occurs Dec. 21-24. Southern Brazil and Paraguay will see additional rain into Monday restoring soil moisture while slowing fieldwork before rain becomes less frequent Tuesday into Dec. 24 when conditions for fieldwork improve while soil moisture should be great enough to favorably support crop development. In Argentina, rain during the next two weeks will be light and infrequent in most areas and fieldwork should advance well around the precipitation while much of the country dries down overall. Much of Argentina has adequate soil moisture in place to support crop development through the next two weeks with some exceptions in the southwest where soil moisture is already short and where stress to crops should rise until greater rain falls. Soil moisture is already short from La Pampa into San Luis and southwestern into central Cordoba. Recent rain in northwestern Argentina increased topsoil moisture and each round of rain during the next two weeks will be important in preventing the soil from quickly drying out again.
Technical analysis: The soybean bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. A bearish head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern is playing out on the daily bar chart and prices are also trending down. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing January prices above solid resistance at the December high of $11.42 1/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $10.50. First resistance is seen at $11.00 and then at this week’s high of $11.07 1/2. First support is seen at today’s low of $10.81 1/2 and then at $10.70.
Soybean meal bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart and a bearish head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern has also formed. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in January futures above solid technical resistance at the December high of $319.60. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $300.00. First resistance comes in at Tuesday’s high of $307.20 and then at this week’s high of $308.90. First support is seen at today’s low of $298.70 and then at $295.00.
Bean oil bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing January prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of 54.40 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the November low of 48.66 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 51.71 cents and then at 52.00 cents. First support is seen at 50.50 cents and then at 50.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: March SRW fell 5 cents to $5.29 1/2, near mid-range and hit a six-week low. March HRW lost 3 3/4 cents to $5.23 1/4, near mid-range. March spring wheat futures fell 1 cent to $5.75 1/4.
Fundamental analysis: Winter wheat markets today saw technical selling pressure from the speculators as the near-term chart postures in SRW and HRW are bearish.
World Weather Inc. today said U.S. HRW country will continue to be mostly dry through at least the next 10 days. Temperatures this weekend will briefly drop below normal. The farthest northeastern crop areas of Nebraska will get close to 0 degrees. However, this is unlikely to be an issue. Some increase in precipitation is a possibility Dec. 21 – 24; though, this isn’t of high confidence yet, said the forecaster. In the Northern Plains, snowfall in the next seven days will be significant in Montana. The moisture content of the snow will raise soil moisture for use in the spring. Some melting will occur next week, though and soil moisture improvement will at least partially depend on how much of the snow melts while there is frost in the ground. Cold air will be significant Friday into Sunday, but all crops should be adequately protected by the snow.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending down on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at $5.50. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.08 1/2. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $5.40 and then at last week’s high of $5.44 1/2. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.25 1/4 and then at $5.15.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the November high of $5.53 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $4.98 3/4. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $5.33 and then at last week’s high of $5.36 1/2. First support is seen at $5.19 1/2 and then at $5.10.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton rose 26 points to 64.12 cents, nearer the session high.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw short covering today. Gains were somewhat limited by mostly lower grain futures prices. The futures market was quieter today ahead of the afternoon results of the latest FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve.
World Weather Inc. today said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see dry weather through most of the next two weeks and fieldwork should advance well around a few infrequent showers. The Blacklands, Coastal Bend, and South Texas will see infrequent rounds of isolated to scattered showers through the next two weeks with dry weather most common. Meantime, mostly dry and favorable conditions for fieldwork continued Tuesday in the San Joaquin Valley and southern Arizona.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in March futures above technical resistance at 66.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the November low of 63.11 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 64.53 cents and then at 64.95 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 63.55 cents and then at 63.11 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 15% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 15% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.