Editor’s note: Markets will be closed Thursday for the New Year’s Day holiday. Pro Farmer will be observing an abbreviated schedule on Wednesday and Friday, publishing First Thing Today (8:00 a.m. CT) and After the Bell (Post-close). We will resume our regular publishing schedule on Monday, Jan. 5.
Corn
Price action: March corn futures fell 1 3/4 cents to $4.40 1/2, near the session low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw follow-through technical selling today, after Monday’s solid losses. Some end-of-year position evening was also featured. The corn market is back in the middle of its well-defined, sideways trading range.
Pro Farmer crop consultant Michael Cordonnier left his 2025-26 Brazilian corn production estimate unchanged at 137.0 MMT and holds a neutral bias going forward. Cordonnier also maintained his Argentine estimate at 54.0 MMT but holds a neutral-to-higher bias going forward.
World Weather Inc. today said favorable weather will continue in most of Argentina and Brazil during the next 10 days. Relief from dryness is expected in east-central and northeastern crop areas favoring ongoing crop development. Southern Argentina will stay drier than usual for at least 10 days and possibly longer eventually leading to crop moisture stress in Buenos Aires and La Pampa.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close March prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $4.53. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the November low of $4.34 1/2. First resistance is seen at $4.45 and then at $4.48. First support is seen at $4.37 and then at $4.34 1/2.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: March soybeans fell 1 1/4 cents to $10.62 1/4, near the session low. March soybean meal $1.00 to $302.30, nearer the daily low. March soybean oil rose 15 points to 49.44 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and meal futures today saw pre-holiday pauses after Monday’s selling pressure. Bulls got no help today from USDA reporting daily sales of 136,000 MT of U.S. soybeans for delivery to China and 231,000 MT to unknown destinations during the 2025-26 marketing-year.
Pro Farmer South American crop consultant Michael Cordonnier raised his 2025-26 Brazilian production estimate by 1.0 MMT to 178.0 MMT amid good early yield reports out of Mato Grosso and improved rainfall in the southernmost state of Rio Grande do Sul. Cordonnier kept his Argentine estimate unchanged at 49.0 MMT but holds a neutral to higher bias toward both crops.
Anec reports Brazilian soy exports are seen reaching 3.02 million MT in December, down from its previous estimate of 3.57 million MT.
World Weather Inc. today said rain will fall in all of Brazil at one time or another during the next ten days to two weeks. Temporary drying in the south this weekend into early next week should be welcome as will be some of the rain expected in the northeast. Northeastern parts of the nation will trend drier again next week which may firm the soil once again. The bottom line will remain very good for summer crop development and yield potentials will continue favorable, with ongoing improvements in the central west where a poor start to the growing season occurred this year. In Argentina, dryness in southern Argentina will fester this week and probably expand a little to the north into southern Cordoba, southern Entre Rios and southern Santa Fe. Crop stress will also increase in the driest areas, putting pressure on a couple of minor rain events slated for next week. Northern Argentina will continue to experience a good mix of rain and sunshine. Relief from dryness in the south is expected to come in the Jan. 7-13 period, although the relief may not be complete and more rain will still be necessary to end concern about long-term dryness.
Technical analysis: The soybean bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing March prices above solid resistance at $11.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of $10.28 1/2. First resistance is seen at $10.75 and then at last week’s high of $10.82 1/2. First support is seen at last week’s low of $10.57 1/4 and then at $10.50.
Soybean meal bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in March futures above solid technical resistance at $320.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $300.00. First resistance comes in at $305.00 and then at this week’s high of $308.70. First support is seen at the December low of $300.70 and then at $295.00.
Bean oil bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. A bearish pennant pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing March prices above solid technical resistance at 51.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 47.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 49.68 cents and then at 50.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 49.02 cents and then at the December low of 48.05 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: March SRW fell 2 1/4 cents to $5.10 3/4, near the daily low. March HRW lost 5 1/4 cents to $5.22, near the daily low. March spring wheat futures fell 3/4 of a cent to $5.78 1/2, near mid-range for the day.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw follow-through technical selling pressure today as the near-term charts continue to lean bearish.
Wheat bulls got no traction today from news that Russia attacked infrastructure in Ukraine’s Odesa region on Tuesday, damaging a civilian ship and facilities in the Black Sea ports of Pivdennyi and Chornomorsk, according to Deputy Prime Minister Oleksiy Kuleba. Kuleba said a civilian Panama-flagged ship loaded with grains was damaged and that oil storage tanks were also hit.
SovEcon raised its 2025-26 Russian wheat export forecast by 0.4 MMT to 44.6 MMT earlier today. The consultancy also raised its forecast for Russian grain exports by 0.3 MMT to 52.9 MMT.
World Weather Inc. today said winter wheat hardiness was reduced last week in the U.S. because of warmer temperatures in the central and southern Plains, Delta, and southeastern states, although winter wheat remains in good condition. Concern over expanding dryness is rising, and precipitation will be needed later this winter to support a normal start to spring growth. Colder weather briefly early next week is unlikely to induce any winter crop damage.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending down on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the December high of $5.44 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at $5.20 and then at last week’s high of $5.25. First support is seen at last week’s low of $5.10 and then at the contract low of $5.04.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the December high of $5.36 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $4.98 3/4. First resistance is seen at $5.36 1/2 and then at $5.45. First support is seen at $5.20 and then at last week’s low of $5.15 1/4.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton fell 3 points to 64.32 cents, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures today saw more mild selling pressure amid grain futures markets that are presently looking heavy. A firmer U.S. dollar index today also limited buying interest in cotton futures.
World Weather Inc. today said recent rain in California and the U.S. southwestern desert region has improved soil moisture for use in the spring, although much more is needed. Northern Mexico also needs rain as does most of Texas cotton country. The U.S. Delta has favorable soil moisture and the southeastern states are going to have need for more precipitation and some of that is expected next week. Cotton conditions in West Africa are rated favorably with harvest progress suspected of advancing relatively well. Not much change is anticipated. The bulk of harvesting should be complete. Late-season cotton in southern India continues to develop and soil moisture is rated favorably in many areas. Drier weather of late in southern India should be supporting some early maturation and harvesting. Most of the late season crop harvest occurs through January and sometimes into February. Australia’s cotton crop would benefit from rain especially in western unirrigated areas where dryness is still of some concern. Irrigated crops should be performing well as are some of the dryland crops produced in the east. Argentina planting conditions have not been ideal this season but progress is being made. Fieldwork is notably behind the usual pace and some heavy rain recently in the north has setback fieldwork again. Some drier weather is needed and it will occur intermittently between bouts of rain during the next 10 days.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in March futures above technical resistance at 65.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 62.00 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 64.81 cents and then at 65.00 cents. First support is seen at 64.00 cents and then at 63.50 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 15% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 15% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.