Corn
Price action: July corn ended the day down 3 1/2 cents to $4.59 1/2 but still marked a weekly gain of 16 cents.
5-day outlook: Corn saw modest profit-taking overnight before selling efforts accelerated early this morning following reports that President Trump is looking to increase tariffs on the European Union to 50%. Today’s selling pressure did little to negate this week’s impressive bounce, which marked the first weekly close higher in six weeks. That strength should continue next week and continued short-covering could drive prices higher. Demand has remained robust, evidenced by continued robust export sales, which slipped this week but remain above average historically, and rebounding use of ethanol. The old-crop balance sheet remains supportive and has underpinned the July-Dec spread over the past week. If that strength continues in the spread, it could provide an opportunity to advance sales over the next week or two.
30-day outlook: Weather over the coming month will garner a lot of market attention. While planting has gone on without a hitch through most of the Midwest, some portions of the south and eastern Corn Belt have seen planting delays and given recent rainfall, could experience further delays. That could weigh on acres somewhat, but rapid planting in western portions of the Corn Belt could have allowed some producers to switch their bean acres over to corn. That has been noted anecdotally among seed retailers who have reported their highest sales of corn seed, ever. While most areas have near-term precip needs met, weather will continue to be a focus as planting finishes up and USDA begins reporting crop conditions next Tuesday.
90-day outlook: The EU is set to import about 150 million bu. of corn in 2024-25, which is well above year ago and primarily dominated by U.S. exports to Spain. The tariff and its likely response will likely not have a large effect on corn, but it is rather concerning to see tensions heightened after what seemed like a good couple of weeks with little but good news. As the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs with most countries is already about half-way done, trade barriers will once again come on the forefront of traders’ minds in the coming quarter as the crop is underway and production prospects are becoming better realized towards the end of the summer.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans closed 7 1/4 cents lower at $10.60 1/4 but marked a weekly gain of 10 1/4 cents.
5-day outlook: Soybeans gave up yesterday’s gains and then some following President Trump’s announcement regarding tariffs on the EU. July soybeans have traded above key 200-day moving average resistance twice in the past couple of weeks with a catalyst pushing prices back below that mark both times. Key resistance persists at $10.65 and until bulls can create some distance above that mark, the danger remains of falling back into the sideways range that has plagued prices over the past month. On Tuesday, USDA will release their weekly export inspections report. If inspections remain low, it could draw into question to how exports will finish the year, but if they rebound from this week’s disappointing figure, it could provide bulls with a catalyst to start the week.
30-day outlook: Planting continues at a rapid clip as none of the top 13 soybean production states are running behind. While there will not be a soybean condition rating next week like there will be corn, attention will be keyed in on weather as the growing season commences. More sunshine than rain is expected over the next ten days across the Midwest but moist soils will continue to support crop development and cooler than normal temps will help with keeping evaporation to a minimum but will slow development rates a bit. Temps are expected to warm late next week. Historically as the calendar rolls to June, soybeans begin pricing in more weather premium, something we will be keeping a close eye on as we look to advance sales.
90-day outlook: Reports that President Trump is advocating for tariffs on goods from the EU and the expected retaliation will not bode well for soybean exports, if the policy sticks. The EU historically is one of the top importers of U.S. soybeans, only coming in second to China in 2024-25. There are around 225 million bushels of exports at risk. That risk likely weighed heavily on soybeans today, but the market has gotten somewhat numb to the ongoing tariff threats. How policy plays out ahead of the new-crop marketing year will be key.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 65% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 65% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW wheat futures fell 2 cents to $5.42 1/2, near mid-range and for the week up 17 1/2 cents. July HRW wheat futures dipped 1 1/4 cent to $5.38 3/4, near mid-range and for the week up 22 1/4 cents. Spring wheat futures saw relative strength, rising 6 1/4 cents to $6.06 1/2, marking a 33 1/4 cent gain on the week.
5-day outlook: The wheat futures markets late this week took a routine and not unhealthy pause from recent good price gains that suggest market bottoms are in place. Traders next week will focus on Tuesday’s USDA weekly crop progress numbers, as markets are closed Monday for the Memorial Day holiday.
Weather in global wheat regions will also be near the front burner. World Weather Inc. today said rain in the northern U.S. Plains and southeastern Canada’s Prairies last week and into the early weekend “improved soil moisture for long-term crop development, although disruptive to fieldwork. Additional rain will impact Montana and into South Dakota during the next ten days while the prairies are mostly dry.” The southwestern U.S. hard red winter wheat region will get some rain this weekend. Too much moisture may return to a part of Oklahoma, raising worry over crop quality. Meantime, winter and spring crops in much of Europe are developing well, although recent frost and freezes in northeastern areas have limited new growth. Germany and some immediate neighboring areas need rain as soon as possible, but that may not occur for at least another week.Rain is needed in the North Sea region and it should fall next week. Russia’s southern region, eastern Ukraine and Kazakhstan will dry down over the next week to ten days, although crop conditions should stay mostly good. Rain will be needed after that, said World Weather.
30-day outlook: The global trade front will continue to be a main factor in grain markets price action in the coming weeks. Today’s downbeat comments by President Trump in social media posts once again cast a pall over the general marketplace. For the wheat markets to continue their rebounds, the global trade situation has to at least remain stable and certainly cannot deteriorate again. Heightened and sustained risk aversion in the general marketplace would be a rallies-killer for the grain futures markets.
90-day outlook: Recent news that very hot, dry conditions in China recently could reduce grain yields there. That comes amid reduced wheat- production forecasts for Russia. Wheat traders will be watching for new updates on potentially lower Asian wheat production levels and any corresponding up-tick in weekly export sales of U.S. wheat.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Be prepared to make additional 2025-crop and initial 2026-crop sales when the rally shows signs of stalling.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop production. You should be 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop production. You should be 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton futures rose 48 points to 66.11 cents and up 122 points on the week.
5-day outlook: The technically bullish weekly high close in July cotton futures Friday sets the table for some follow-through, chart-based buying interest from the speculators next Tuesday. Markets are closed Monday for the Memorial Day holiday. Tuesday afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports will also be closely scrutinized by cotton traders.
World Weather Inc. today said West Texas, South Texas and the Texas Coastal Bend “all need rain and some is expected in the coming week.” Field conditions in the northern Delta are too wet and more rain during the next ten days will prolong the delay, “raising the potential for reduced acreage as farmer switch out of cotton to short-season soybeans.” The southeastern corner of the U.S. needs rain once again, especially in northern Florida, far southeastern Alabama and southernmost Georgia. Portions of South Carolina are also drying out. Some of that needed rain is likely next week.
30-day outlook: Global trade relations will remain near the front burner of the cotton futures market in the coming weeks. As was seen Friday, a downbeat social media post on the U.S.-European Union trade negotiations from President Trump quickly sapped trader/investor risk appetite and pressured the U.S. stock indexes. A deterioration of the global trade negotiations process would likely push cotton futures prices lower and potentially to new lows for the year.
90-day outlook: USDA Thursday morning reported U.S. sales of upland totaling 141,400 RB for 2024/2025 were up 16 percent from the previous week and up 41 percent from the prior 4-week average. However, shipments of 251,500 RB were down 24 percent from the previous week and down 27 percent from the prior 4-week average. China was noticeably absent from the latest U.S. weekly export sales data. For the cotton futures market to break out to the upside of its choppy and sideways trading range at lower price levels, demand for U.S. cotton from China will very likely need to ramp up significantly, and soon.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.