Corn
Price action: December corn futures fell 3/4 cent to $4.01 1/4, near the daily high and hit a contract low early on.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market was hit early today by technical selling pressure amid firmly bearish charts and by notions next Tuesday’s USDA monthly supply and demand report will show a record U.S. corn crop to be harvested this fall. However, today’s high-range close in December corn begins to suggest the bears are now exhausted. This week’s selling pressure in corn, ahead of what is expected to be a fully bearish USDA report next Tuesday, has us thinking this week’s price action may be “selling the rumor” and that price action after next Tuesday’s supply and demand report may be “buying the fact.”
U.S. ethanol production during the week ended Aug. 1 averaged 1.081 million barrels per day (bpd), down from 1.096 bpd in the previous week, but up from 1.067 million bpd a year-ago. U.S. ethanol stocks fell 4% to 23.76 million barrels, falling below year-ago levels for the first time since May.
World Weather Inc. today said U.S. corn crop weather in the Midwest has been and will continue to be mostly good over the next 10 days to two weeks. The lower and eastern Midwest will need to be watched for firming soil, however, said the forecaster.
Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report is expected to show U.S. corn sales that may reach 3 million MT in all marketing years, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey.
Technical analysis: The corn futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. However, the market is now short-term oversold and due for a decent corrective bounce. Prices are in a 3.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $4.17. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $3.85. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.02 and then at Tuesday’s high of $4.06 3/4. First support is seen at today’s contract low of $3.96 3/4 and then at $3.90.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 6 1/4 cents to $9.84 1/2, nearer the daily low and hit a four-month low. September soybean meal fell $4.40 to $272.60, nearer the daily low. September soybean oil fell 5 points to 53.72 cents, nearer the session low and hit a three-week low.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean complex futures today were pressured by continued good growing weather for much of the U.S. soybean crop heading into next Tuesday’s USDA monthly supply and demand report. Bearish charts are also prompting technical selling pressure from the speculators. The complex got no help from a lower U.S. dollar index and higher crude oil prices today.
Chinese crushers sold nearly 2 MMT of soymeal to local feed mills Tuesday. That’s the biggest single-day sale of the year. Local feed mills booked around 1.9 MMT of soymeal for delivery between October and January as a lack of progress on U.S.-China trade talks raised concerns over supplies during the peak U.S. soybean marketing season in the fourth quarter. President Trump said the U.S. is “very close to a deal” with China to extend a trade truce.
World Weather Inc. today said the Midwest will see another two weeks of favorable conditions for crop development and very high production potentials. However, some areas will dry down significantly during the next two weeks. A combination of favorable subsoil moisture in place and a lack of widespread heat for at least another week, and at least some rain, “will ensure crops have adequate soil moisture into the latter part of the month,” said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: The soybean bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at $10.20. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of $9.71 1/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $9.95 1/4 and then at $10.00. First support is seen at $9.80 and then at $9.71 1/4.
Soybean meal bears have the overall near-term technical advantage and have regained downside momentum. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in September futures above solid technical resistance at the July high of $285.40. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $262.50. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $277.90 and then at $280.00. First support is seen at $270.00 and then at $268.70.
Bean oil bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. A five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing September prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of 57.64 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 50.91 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 54.94 cents and then at 56.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 53.52 cents and then at 52.92 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 65% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 65% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW rose 3/4 cent to $5.29 1/4, nearer the daily high and hit a contract low early on. December HRW wheat rose 6 3/4 cents to $5.32, near the daily high and hit a contract low early on. December spring wheat futures fell 1/4 cent to $5.92 1/4.
Fundamental analysis: Sell offs in corn and soybean futures markets today, ahead of what is expected to be a bearish monthly USDA supply and demand report for both next Tuesday, spilled over into selling pressure in the wheat futures markets early on today. However, both SRW and HRW then saw some short covering enter the markets that pushed prices above unchanged by the close. A lower U.S. dollar index and higher crude oil prices today were also supportive for wheat futures.
World Weather Inc. today said that in the Canadian Prairies “much-needed rainfall is still expected in northeastern production areas of the region in the next seven days. This rain is coming a bit too late to be of much use in the areas that have been most seriously impacted with dryness. However, some crops will benefit from the rain. Meaningful rainfall will be widespread and will impact other parts of the region as well. Temperatures will be seasonable, which should prove to be beneficial in limiting crop stress,” said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.60. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of $5.37 1/2 and then at this week’s high of $5.43. First support is seen at $5.20 and then at $5.10.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.60. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of $5.37 and then at this week’s high of $5.43 1/2. First support is seen at today’s contract low of $5.24 and then at $5.15.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton fell 27 points to 66.84 cents, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market continues to languish within a well-defined trading range marked by the June low of 66.27 cents and the June high of 69.52 cents, basis December futures. Look for more of the same in the near term. Next Tuesday’s USDA supply and demand report may provide traders with an incentive to push cotton futures prices out of the aforementioned trading range.
A lower U.S. dollar index and higher crude oil prices today did limit selling pressure in cotton futures.
World Weather Inc. today said unirrigated west Texas cotton areas still need greater rain and some additional warm weather to support the best dryland production. “Hotter temperatures are likely over the next few days and that will be good for irrigated fields, but dryland crops that need rain in the southwest will be more stressed by the heat.” Other areas in Texas are seeing highly varying weather and soil conditions. Timely rain will become increasingly more important as the next two weeks move along to ensure the best crop development and yield potential in the Blacklands and upper coast. South Texas crops are maturing and beginning to be harvested. U.S. Delta crops are drying down and timely rain is needed. The southeastern U.S. cotton areas in the nation have received significant rain recently and more will fall to support long term crop development, said the forecaster.
Cotton traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at the June high of 69.52 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the June low of 66.27 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 67.72 cents and then at 68.00 cents. First support is seen at 66.27 cents and then at 66.00 cents.
What to do: Finish 2024-crop sales. Today marks the end of the 2024-25 marketing year for cotton. We advise cotton hedgers and cash-only marketers to sell the final 25% of 2024-crop production to get to 100% sold. New-crop sales will wait for an extended rally.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.