Corn
Price action: December corn futures fell 3 3/4 cents to $4.07, near the daily low and set a contract low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw technical selling as the chart posture remains solidly bearish. Today’s new contract low in December corn will further embolden the technically biased speculators to play the short side. Corn received no help today from a slumping U.S. dollar index following last Friday’s downbeat U.S. jobs report.
USDA this morning reported solid U.S. corn export inspections of 1.52 million MT, well up from last week’s total of 984,901 MT.
World Weather Inc. today said U.S. corn crop weather in the Midwest has been and will continue to be mostly good over the next 10 days to two weeks, despite some net drying.
This afternoon’s weekly crop progress reports are expected to show the U.S. corn crop in 73% good to excellent condition as of Sunday, the same as last week and compares to 67% in good to excellent condition at the same time last year.
Technical analysis: The corn futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 3.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $4.30 1/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the contract low of $4.07 1/2. First resistance is seen at last Friday’s high of $4.16 and then at last week’s high of $4.19 3/4. First support is seen at today’s contract low of $4.06 3/4 and then at $4.00.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans rose 5 1/4 cents to $9.94 1/2 and nearer the daily high. September soybean meal rose $6.10 to $277.00, near the daily high. September soybean oil fell 8 points to 54.40 cents and hit a three-week low early on.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean futures market saw short covering today, with some bargain-hunting buying interest from the speculators also featured as soybean meal has made an impressive rebound from last week’s contract low. Meal prices have closed higher three sessions in a row, which begins to suggest a market bottom is finally in place. A lower U.S. dollar index today also worked in favor of the soybean complex bulls.
USDA today reported decent U.S. soybean export inspections of 409,714 MT, compared to 377,020 MT last week.
World Weather Inc. today said the Midwest “will see another two weeks of favorable conditions for crop development and very high production potentials.” Some areas will dry down significantly during the next two weeks but a combination of favorable subsoil moisture in place at present, a lack of widespread heat and at least some rain “will ensure crops have adequate soil moisture into the latter part of the month.” Temperatures will be near to below normal into Tuesday before warming occurs and much of the region sees warmer-than-normal temperatures Wednesday through this weekend followed by cooling early next week. Widespread heat is not expected through the next week, with Friday warmest when some areas from eastern Kansas to southeastern Iowa and southeastern South Dakota reach the middle and a few upper 90s, said World Weather.
This afternoon’s weekly crop progress reports are expected to show the U.S. soybean crop in 70% good to excellent condition as of Sunday, the same as last week and compares to 68% in good to excellent condition at the same time last year.
Technical analysis: The soybean bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at $10.43 1/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of $9.71 1/4. First resistance is seen at $10.00 and then at $10.12 1/4. First support is seen at today’s and last week’s low of $9.86 and then at $9.75.
Soybean meal bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart. However, the bulls now have some momentum on their side. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in September futures above solid technical resistance at the July high of $285.40. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $260.00. First resistance comes in at $275.00 and then at $278.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $269.60 and then at $266.00.
Bean oil bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but are now fading. A five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart is in jeopardy. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing September prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of 57.64 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 50.91 cents. First resistance is seen at 55.49 cents and then at 56.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 53.90 cents and then at 52.92 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 65% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 65% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat closed steady at $5.37, nearer the session low and hit a contract low early on. December HRW wheat fell 1 cent to $5.37 1/2, near mid-range and hit a contract low early on. December spring wheat futures fell 3/4 cent to $5.96.
Fundamental analysis: Bearish charts and disappointing global demand for U.S. wheat on world trade markets continue to weigh on the winter wheat futures markets. A weaker U.S. dollar index to start the trading week was of little help to the winter wheat markets.
USDA today reported disappointing U.S. wheat export inspections of 288,793 MT, compared to 732,290 MT in last week’s report.
World Weather Inc. today said wheat conditions in Canada’s Prairies “are a concern, with parts of the eastern Prairies losing yield potential because of dryness. Some rain will fall this week and next week to offer a little relief. However, much of the rain comes a little too late in the season for a serious production change.” Harvesting in the central Plains should be winding down soon. Dryness in the Pacific Northwest hurt dryland production this year, while irrigated crops likely performed normally.
This afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports are expected to show the U.S. winter wheat harvest at 88% complete as of Sunday, compared to 80% done last week and 88% complete at the same time one year ago. Spring wheat is expected at 7% harvested versus 1% last week and 6% a year ago. U.S. spring wheat in good to excellent condition is seen at 49% as of Sunday, the same as last week and compares to 74% in the same condition one year ago.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.70. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.25. First resistance is seen at $5.50 and then at last week’s high of $5.59 3/4. First support is seen at today’s contract low of $5.33 1/2 and then at $5.25.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.65. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.25. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $5.49 1/2 and then at $5.58 3/4. First support is seen at today’s contract low of $5.33 and then at $5.25.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton rose 28 points to 66.64 cents, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market saw some mild short covering today after dropping to a five-week low on Friday. A lower U.S. dollar index and solid gains in the U.S. stock market today were friendly outside-market elements for cotton.
World Weather Inc. today said unirrigated west Texas cotton areas “still need greater rain and some additional warm weather to support the best dryland production. Other areas in Texas are seeing highly varying weather and soil conditions. Timely rain will become increasingly more important as the next two weeks move along to ensure the best crop development and yield potential.” South Texas crops are maturing and beginning to be harvested. U.S. Delta crops are drying down, although it looks as though timely rain may evolve during the coming week to ten days. The southeastern U.S. cotton areas in the nation are also expected to receive periodic rain with some of that moderate to heavy this week, said World Weather.
Cotton traders will closely examine today’s weekly USDA crop progress reports.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at the June high of 69.52 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the June low of 66.27 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 67.16 cents and then at 68.00 cents. First support is seen at 66.27 cents and then at 66.00 cents.
What to do: Finish 2024-crop sales. Today marks the end of the 2024-25 marketing year for cotton. We advise cotton hedgers and cash-only marketers to sell the final 25% of 2024-crop production to get to 100% sold. New-crop sales will wait for an extended rally.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.