Corn
Price action: May corn futures rose 2 1/4 cents to $4.62 1/2, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw some more technical buying featured as prices are still trending higher on the daily bar chart. However, a stronger U.S. dollar index and keener risk aversion in the general marketplace did pull corn prices down from session highs. Some profit-taking from the shorter-term traders was also featured today.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. corn export sales of 1.53 MMT for the week ended March 5, down 24% from the previous week and 2% from the four-week average. Net sales were within the expected pre-report range of 800,000 MT to 2.2 MMT.
World Weather Inc. today said some concern remains over interior southern Brazil and Paraguay dryness. A few showers are possible but the precipitation expected will not be very relieving and more moisture will be needed. Southeastern Argentina and Uruguay remain drier than usual and in need of rain. Some of that need may be fulfilled by rain next week; though follow up precipitation will still be needed. In the meantime, the heart of Argentina’s coarse grain and oilseed region will remain in good shape with alternating periods of rain and sun dominating the next two weeks.
Technical analysis: Bulls are enjoying a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close May prices above solid chart resistance at this week’s high of $4.76. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at this week’s low of $4.45 1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.69 1/2 and then at $4.76. First support is seen at $4.60 and then at $4.55.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 40% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 40% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: May soybeans rose 13 1/4 cents to $12.27 1/4, near mid-range and hit a two-year high close. May soybean meal rose $4.80 to $320.20, nearer the daily high. May soybean oil gained 26 points to 67.42, nearer the daily low and closed at a contract high close.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean complex saw more technical buying interest today. Gains in the U.S. dollar index today and risk aversion in the general marketplace did pull soybean and bean oil prices down from their daily highs.
USDA this morning reported U.S. soybean export sales 456,700 MT for the week ended March 5, up 19% from the previous week but down 2% from the four week average. Net sales were within the pre-report range of 250,000 to 800,000 MT.
Cargill has paused soybean export operations from Brazil to China after inspection changes made by the Brazilian Government made it difficult for traders to comply, the company’s Latin America head Paulo Sousa said on Wednesday and as reported by Reuters.
“Soybeans are likely to be on the agenda when trade chiefs from the U.S. and China next meet, a conversation that could shed light on when Beijing plans to resume purchases in earnest,” Bloomberg said in a report. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng are expected to convene in Paris this weekend, in preparation for a summit in Beijing between presidents Trump and Xi Jinping at the end of the month.
World Weather Inc. today said southern Brazil and Paraguay will have good opportunities for fieldwork during the next two weeks. Much of the region has marginal to short soil moisture but a wetter period of weather beginning next week will see some improvements in crop conditions. Paraguay and Mato Grosso do Sul will be wettest and will see notable improvements in crop and soil conditions, while Parana sees the least rain and limited improvements in crop and soil conditions. Central and northern Brazil and will see regular rain during the next two weeks. In Argentina, central and eastern regions will be dry most often into Saturday and fieldwork should advance well, with stress to crops likely to increase in the drier areas while much of western Argentina receives at least some rain. Rain will spread across the country Sunday into Tuesday and will induce significant improvements and crop and soil conditions in the drier areas in southern Argentina likely reversing some of the recent declines in yield potential.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing May prices above solid resistance at this week’s high of $12.33 3/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of $11.77 3/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $12.38 3/4 and then at $12.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $12.16 and then at $12.00.
Soybean meal bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in May futures above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $325.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $300.00. First resistance comes in at this week’s high of $321.30 and then at $325.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $316.00 and then at this week’s low of $311.60.
Bean oil bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and gained fresh power today, amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing May prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s contract high of 69.91 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of 64.38 cents. First resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of 68.63 cents and then at 69.00 cents. First support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 66.62 cents and then at 66.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: May SRW rose 3 3/4 cents to $5.98 1/2, nearer the daily low. May HRW closed steady at $6.13 1/2, nearer the daily low. May spring wheat futures fell 3 1/2 cents to $6.34 1/2, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures market saw technical buying featured early on today, with gains in corn and soybeans also encouraging the wheat bulls to do some buying. A higher U.S. dollar index and keener risk aversion in the general marketplace today did limit the upside in the winter wheat markets and price gains faded late.
USDA reported weekly wheat sales of 455,400 MT for the week ended March, which were up noticeably from the previous week and up 49% from the four-week average. Net sales were just above the pre-report range of 200,000 to 450,000 MT.
Expana lowered its forecast for European Union soft wheat exports in 2025-26 for a fifth consecutive month after reducing projected wheat and barley shipments to the Middle East due to the war in the region, according to Reuters.
World Weather Inc. today said too much heat and some dryness in the western wheat areas of the U.S. Plains is threatening a poor start to crop development this spring. There is also some concern over crop conditions in Nebraska, northeastern Colorado, South Dakota and Montana since those areas were snow free when bitter cold occurred in late January and early February possibly damaging some of the crop. A warm and dry spring will not support a very good recovery from cold damage and a wetter and milder weather regime is needed. Freezes are likely this weekend and early next week followed by hot weather again late next week. In the meantime, cold damage that may have occurred in the Midwest in the heart of winter may be fixed by recent rain and mild weather that is slated for the coming week. The environment may promote new tillering. Freezes expected next week should not permanent harm U.S. wheat.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded. Price uptrends are still in place on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at this week’s high of $6.41 3/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.63 1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.13 and then at $6.18 1/2. First support is seen at $5.90 and then at this week’s low of $5.83 3/45.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at this week’s high of $6.47 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.70. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 6.29 1/4 and then at $6.40. First support is seen at Wednesday’s low of $6.07 1/4 and then at this week’s low of $5.98 1/4.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: May cotton futures fell 3 points to 65.14 cents, nearer the session low.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market today saw buying interest limited by a stronger U.S. dollar index and heightened risk aversion in the general marketplace.
This morning’s weekly USDA export sales report showed U.S. sales of Upland totaling 253,200 running bales (RB) for 2025/2026 were up 68 percent from the previous week, but down 8 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Vietnam (116,300 RB), Bangladesh (28,200 RB) and Pakistan (22,200 RB). Net sales of 36,600 RB for 2026/2027 were reported for Vietnam (15,100 RB), Turkey (13,200 RB) and Bangladesh (7,700 RB). Exports of 370,100 RB--a marketing-year high--were up 31 percent from the previous week and up 77 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (148,500 RB), Pakistan (47,000 RB) and Turkey (35,500 RB).
World Weather Inc. today said south Texas and northeastern Mexico need rain to support planting this month and in April. Some showers are possible over the next couple of weeks, but a general soaking seems unlikely. West Texas also needs rain and only light amounts are expected – most of which will occur late this month. California has fallen back to a drier bias after some rain fell recently. Both southern California and Arizona would benefit from additional moisture. Recent rain in the southeastern U.S. has improved soil moisture for better planting potentials later this spring. Subsoil moisture is still low from Florida and southeastern Alabama into a part of the Carolinas, though the situation is not critical. This region will get some timely rain in the next couple of weeks, although drought status will remain.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in May futures above technical resistance at the February high of 66.38 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the contract low of 62.86 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 65.78 cents and then at 66.00 cents. First support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 64.60 cents and then at this week’s low of 64.08 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 40% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You are 10% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time
Cash-only marketers: You are 40% sold on 2025-crop. You are 10% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.