Corn
Price action: December corn futures fell 3 1/2 cents to $4.19 3/4 and nearer the session low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw corrective selling pressure today following four straight up-days. Near-panic selling in the gold and silver futures markets today, with gold down over $250 and silver down over $4 at one point, also spooked grain market bulls. A firmer U.S. dollar index today was also a negative for the grain markets.
The grain market bulls also did not like a comment from President Trump today on his upcoming scheduled meeting with China’s President Xi Jinping. Trump today said, “Maybe it won’t happen.”
Still, corn bulls have made a good recovery from a six-week low scored last week. Bulls are looking forward to corn harvest winding up and the declining commercial hedge selling pressure that goes with it. According to a Reuters poll of 10 analysts, the U.S. corn harvesting progress has lagged behind last year’s pace. On average, the analysts estimated 44% of the U.S. corn crop had been harvested as of last Sunday, with estimates ranging from 35% to 55% complete for corn. Those estimates align with Pro Farmer’s recent survey of its members that found 43% of corn harvest was wrapped up as of the middle of last week. Pro Farmer’s numbers were derived largely from its members in the seven Crop Tour States in the Corn Belt – although data from other areas was consistent with the overall trend.
World Weather Inc. today said light rain will impact parts of the Midwest most days through this weekend, causing brief interruptions to fieldwork before a more significant rain event Monday into Wednesday of next week brings limited drought relief to the drier areas and temporarily slowing field work. Drier weather will resume Oct. 30-Nov. 4 and fieldwork should steadily accelerate. Temperatures will be not far from normal in most eastern areas into Saturday, while western areas are warmer than usual before Sunday and Monday are warmer than usual followed by cooling next Tuesday.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at the September high of $4.31 1/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the October low of $4.09 1/4. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $4.24 3/4 and then at $4.28. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.19 and then at $4.15.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 1 cent to $10.30 3/4, near mid-range and hit a four-week high early on. December soybean meal rose $1.90 to $286.90, near the daily high and also hit a four-week high. December soybean oil fell 66 points to 50.65 cents, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean market saw a pause today and the meal market saw more modest price strength after recent good gains. The soy complex bulls also did not like a comment from President Trump today on his upcoming scheduled meeting with China’s President Xi Jinping. Trump today said, “Maybe it won’t happen.”
Huge losses in the gold and silver markets today also kept the soy complex bulls skittish. Still friendly for the soy complex is that it appears the U.S. and China are trying to ratchet down their trade tensions ahead of next week’s summit meeting in Asia between Presidents Trump and Xi.
Pro Farmer’s recent survey of its members that found 80% of U.S. soybean harvest was complete as of the middle of last week. Pro Farmer’s numbers were derived largely from its members in the seven Crop Tour States in the Corn Belt – although data from other areas was consistent with the overall trend.
World Weather Inc. today said U.S. harvest weather will advance around periodic rainfall during the next 10 days. No crop quality problems are expected because of periodic rain. Weekend precipitation in Brazil was welcome and it improved topsoil moisture in many areas. However, there were some areas left dry. Net drying this week and into the weekend will eventually slow germination, emergence and establishment once again. Dryness may become a greater concern soon for those areas failing to get good rainfall recently. Argentina will see a good mix of rain and sunshine to maintain a very good outlook for summer crop planting and early development.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at the August high of $10.52 3/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the September low of $9.93. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $10.38 and then at $10.52 3/4. First support is seen at this week’s low of $10.19 3/4 and then at $10.10.
December soybean meal bulls and bears are back on a level near-term technical playing field but the bulls have momentum and are working on starting a price uptrend. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at $290.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $270.10. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $287.20 and then at $290.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $283.60 and then at this week’s low of $280.30.
Bean oil bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage as prices are starting to trend up. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of 53.88 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the September low of 48.89 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 51.77 cents and then at 52.00 cents. First support is seen at last Friday’s low of 50.35 cents and then at 50.00 cents.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW fell 4 1/2 cents to $5.00 1/4. December HRW lost 5 cents to $4.85. Both markets closed nearer their daily lows.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw more technical selling pressure today amid firmly bearish near-term price charts. Big losses in gold and silver futures today also spilled over into some selling pressure in wheat markets. The grain market bulls also did not like a comment from President Trump today on his upcoming scheduled meeting with China’s President Xi Jinping. Trump today said, “Maybe it won’t happen.”
World Weather Inc. today said U.S. soft wheat in the Midwest has been and will continue to experience a good mix of rain and sunshine during the next two weeks, resulting in good planting, germination and emergence conditions. Some greater rain will soon be needed in the southwestern and west-central Plains where net drying is expected. Canada’s eastern Prairies are receiving additional rain today and it will linger Monday. The moisture will keep fieldwork a little sluggish Manitoba will continue wet biased at times during the coming ten days while the central and southwestern Prairies are left dry. Wheat areas in eastern Ukraine, Russia’s Southern Region and western Kazakhstan still receive waves of rain during the next ten days to improve crop and field conditions, said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Price downtrends are firmly in place on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.25. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $4.75. First resistance is seen at $5.10 and then at $5.20. First support is seen at the contract low of $4.92 1/4 and then at $4.85.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $4.60. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $4.94 1/2 and then at $5.00. First support is seen at the contract low of $4.77 1/4 and then at $4.70.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton rose 26 points to 64.42 cents, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: December cotton futures today saw some modest short covering and perceived bargain hunting. Recent price action suggests the bears are exhausted and that a near-term market bottom could be in place. The recent rebound in the U.S. dollar index and a drop in the crude oil market to a 4.5-month low today are bearish outside-market elements that could limit gains in cotton in the near term.
World Weather Inc. today said dry and favorable conditions for cotton maturation and harvesting will occur through much of the next two weeks, with rain and temporary interruptions to fieldwork in much of western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma Thursday into Friday. Much of west Texas will receive up to 0.50” of rain and locally more Thursday into Friday, while totals in southwestern Oklahoma are 0.40-1.60” and locally more with scattered and light showers in the Panhandle. Significant rain and beneficial increases in soil moisture will occur in the Blacklands and the Coastal Bend Friday into Saturday, with little rain during the remainder of the next two weeks in those regions or south Texas. Isolated to scattered and mostly light showers will occur most days into Thursday in parts of the Blacklands, Coastal Bend, and South Texas before rain increases Friday into Saturday.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 5.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart but just barely. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 66.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the contract low of 62.71 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 64.78 cents and then at 65.00 cents. First support is seen at 64.00 cents and then of 63.46 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.