Corn
Price action: December corn futures fell 1 3/4 cents to $4.19, nearer the daily low and for the week down 8 3/4 cents.
5-day outlook: The corn market bulls did not have the best week, but were able to stop the early-week bleeding to stabilize prices. Bearish outside markets today that saw a higher U.S. dollar index and lower crude oil prices did not help the bulls any today. With charts still leaning overall bearish and Corn Belt weather still price-bearish, the corn market bulls have their work cut out for them next week.
World Weather Inc. today said U.S. corn crop weather “is not very threatening, although there will be some net drying during a portion of the forecast which is not unusual during the heart of summer.” No excessive heat or blocking ridge of high pressure is expected, although there will be some developing dryness in the southwest part of the Midwest and neighboring areas of the Delta. Meantime, Brazil’s Safrinha corn is maturing and being harvested “and the environment has been quite good for those purposes.”
30-day outlook: USDA today reported daily U.S. corn sales of 102,870 MT to Mexico and 140,000 MT to South Korea during the 2025-26 marketing year. Export demand for U.S. corn has improved recently, and with countries starting to finalize trade deals with the U.S. before the Aug. 1 trade-deal deadline, corn market bulls are looking for export demand to continue to increase in the coming weeks. However, a huge Brazilian corn crop that is coming to market may limit significant price upside for the corn market the next few weeks.
90-day outlook: It’s been an interesting growing season for the U.S. corn crop. What many observers would call a very good growing season for the crop up to this point, there have been a few hiccups just recently. While there are still wide expectations of a record U.S. corn yield this year amid the good condition ratings from USDA, disease issues have been spotted in the Corn Belt.Those issues may or may not develop into more serious matters as the corn crop continues to mature in the coming weeks. And, the heretofore beneficial growing weather in most of the Midwest could do an about face in the final stages of the growing season. These unknowns may be just enough to keep the corn market bears, including the big speculative funds, from piling on the short side heading into what could eventually turn out to be a bumper U.S. corn crop.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 3 1/4 cents to $10.21, nearer the daily low and on the week down 14 3/4 cents. September soybean meal futures fell $1.70 to $272.20, nearer the daily low and for the week down $6.20. September soybean oil futures fell 22 points to 56.25 cents, near mid-range and for the week up 61 points.
5-day outlook: The technically bearish weekly low close today in November soybeans sets the table for some follow-through technical selling pressure from the speculators early next week. A higher U.S. dollar index and lower crude oil prices today helped to pressure the soybean complex. Losses were somewhat limited today as USDA reported a daily U.S. soybean sale of 142,500 MT to Mexico during 2025-26.
Soybean growing weather leans price-bearish for next week. World Weather Inc. today said thunderstorm activity in the next seven days will still be enough for localized flooding. The rain that occurs will be mostly beneficial for soybeans, but there will be some pockets of significant rain that may lead to damage. Warm temperatures will cause quick drying between rain events. An unusually cool air mass is expected to surge down into the Midwest from the north Tuesday through Thursday.
30-day outlook: Most soybean market watchers agree the month of August is the most important growing month for the majority of the U.S. soybean crop. So far, this growing season has been mostly very good for the U.S. soybean crop, which is keeping the bulls squelched. But the crop is not yet in the bin and Midwest weather patterns may change in August. Despite the price-bearish weather for soybeans, price action in futures has been sideways and choppy, which arguably shows the bean bulls are resilient. In fact, soybean bulls can argue the price-bearish weather has been factored into prices, and that’s why price action has been sideways and choppy. Such also argues there is not much downside price potential left in the soybean market. However, the soybean meal market remains sickly and will have to show some good upside price action in the coming weeks, if beans want to have a chance to produce a sustained price uptrend. Meal may benefit in the coming weeks by speculative futures traders unwinding long bean oil, short meal spreads.
90-day outlook: U.S. trade deals with other countries are starting to fall into place, just ahead of the Aug. 1 U.S. deadline for trade deals. More trade deals and better U.S. soybean export sales will be needed in the coming months for the soybean market to see significant price appreciation. Better U.S. trade relations with China in the coming months would likely be a solid development on better U.S. soybean sales abroad. Separately, early fall will likely see soybean price rallies limited by commercial hedge pressure as the U.S. crop harvest begins.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 65% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 65% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat futures fell 3 1/4 cents to $5.58 1/4, nearer the daily low and for the week down 8 3/4 cents. December HRW wheat lost 2 cents to $5.47 3/4, near mid-range and on the week down 3 3/4 cents. December spring wheat futures fell 7 1/2 cents to $6.06 and closed down 10 1/2 cents on the week.
5-day outlook: The winter wheat futures markets continue to struggle, but the bulls have so far successfully defended solid technical support levels just below the markets, to keep price action mostly sideways and choppy at lower price levels. However, today’s technically bearish weekly low close in December SRW wheat does give the technical bulls some momentum heading into next week. A higher U.S. dollar index and lower crude oil prices today also worked in favor of the wheat market bears.
World Weather Inc. today said that in the northern Plains, a mostly favorable mix of rain and sunshine is expected through the next two weeks. Fieldwork may be slowed at times where the heaviest rain occurs. However, the outlook for the region is quite good with no crop issues expected. However, wheat conditions in Canada are a concern with parts of the Prairies losing yield potential because of dryness. Some rain fell recently to improve a part of the crop, but production of wheat will be below normal. U.S. wheat production has been favorable in the Midwest and northern Plains. Harvesting in the central Plains has advanced well. Dryness in the Pacific Northwest hurt dryland production this year while irrigated crops likely performed normally. Most of the winter wheat in Europe and Russia is being harvested and will not likely respond well to rain in the future. Production cuts for winter crops have not been as great as feared in Europe.
30-day outlook: The U.S. has seen some trade deals with other countries fall into place just recently. More trade deals in the coming weeks would prop up trader/investor risk appetite and that would be bullish for the grains—not to mention have the potential to see better export demand for U.S. wheat. As the U.S. wheat harvest winds down in the coming few weeks, commercial hedge pressure will likely continue to limit the upside for prices.
90-day outlook: The trajectory of the U.S. dollar index in the coming months will be an important outside-market element for the U.S. wheat markets. The USDX saw a solid rebound the first half of July but has since sold off. If the greenback continues its slide that has been in place most of this year, U.S. wheat export prices would become more attractive on the world trade front.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton fell 48 points to 68.23 cents and near the daily low. For the week, December cotton fell 45 points.
5-day outlook: Like a broken record, sideways and choppy trading in the cotton futures market continues, suggesting more of the same next week. The market needs a new fundamental catalyst to break prices out of the present trading range. The higher U.S. dollar index and lower crude oil prices today were bearish outside-market elements for cotton futures.
World Weather Inc. today said recent showers in West Texas were welcome, although greater rain that is better distributed is still needed. Warm to hot temperatures in the next 10 days will be supportive of aggressive crop development in areas with favorable soil moisture and/or plenty of irrigation water. Other areas in Texas will not likely get enough rain to counter evaporation. U.S. Delta crops will likely dry down in the coming week, while temperatures trend warmer.
30-day outlook: It can be argued by the chart-based traders that cotton futures prices have been trending higher from the June low, albeit in choppy fashion. If the bulls in the coming weeks can put together a winning streak to push December futures above stiff chart resistance at the June high of 69.52 cents, then the technical speculators would likely be much more active on trading the long side.
90-day outlook: U.S. trade deals with other countries beginning to fall into place. A booming U.S. stock market that this week saw major indexes hit record highs. The fall apparel season is approaching with U.S. consumers having upbeat attitudes amid a healthy U.S. economy. The U.S. dollar index rebounded a bit in early July but now appears to be resuming its slide that has been in place all year. China’s economy is starting to show better numbers recently. All of these factors are bullish macro elements for the U.S. cotton market that are likely to at least keep a floor under prices in the coming months, if not produce a decent price uptrend.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 75% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 75% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 2 3/4 cents to $10.22 3/4 and near the daily low. September soybean meal lost $1.70 to $276.20, near the daily low and hit a three-week high early on. September soybean oil rose 49 points to 55.94 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and meal markets today saw some mild short covering early on, but then succumbed to some technical selling pressure late. Bulls were somewhat encouraged by the U.S.-Japan trade deal reached. President Trump called the trade deal the “largest ever.” Taiwan’s trade negotiators have arrived in the U.S. for trade talks.
World Weather Inc. today said central U.S. weather is expected to be very warm to hot over the next full week and possibly 10 days. Daily highs in the 90s to 106 degrees Fahrenheit will impact the central and southern Plains while the Delta and Tennessee River Basin see daily highs in the 90s and near 100. U.S. Midwest cooling is expected during the middle to latter part of next week, which will be welcome, although it will not last long with the return of warmer weather in the following weekend.
Thursday’s weekly USDA export sales report is expected to show U.S. soybean sales of 100,000 to 350,000 MT in the 2024-25 marketing year, and sales of 250,000 to 500,000 MT in the 2025-26 marketing year.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at $10.60. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of $9.98 1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $10.35 1/2 and then at last week’s high of $10.43 1/4. First support is seen at this week’s low of $10.20 1/4 and then at $10.10.
Soybean meal bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in September futures above solid technical resistance at the July high of $285.40. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $268.70. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $281.70 and then at $285.40. First support is seen at this week’s low of $273.50 and then at $270.00.
Bean oil bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing September prices above solid technical resistance at 58.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 52.50 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 56.99 cents and then at 58.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 54.79 cents and then at 54.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 65% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 65% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat fell 8 1/4 cents to $5.61 1/4, near the daily low. December HRW wheat lost 9 cents to $5.46, near the daily low. December spring wheat futures fell 2 1/4 cents to $6.09 1/2.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw technical selling pressure today and likely continued commercial hedge selling from commercials amid the ongoing winter wheat harvest. This week’s sell off in the corn futures market is also limiting buying interest in wheat.
World Weather Inc. today said central U.S. weather is expected to be very warm to hot over the next full week and possibly 10 days. Daily highs in the 90s to 106 degrees Fahrenheit will impact the central and southern Plains. Late-season wheat harvest conditions in the central and southern U.S. Plains will be good due to restricted rainfall and hot temperatures, said the forecaster.
Thursday’s weekly USDA export sales report is expected to show U.S. wheat sales of 250,000 to 500,000 MT in the 2025-26 marketing year.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, there are stiff chart support levels that lie just below present prices. December SRW prices today scored a bullish outside day up on the daily bar chart. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.95. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.43 3/4. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $5.72 3/4 and then at the July high of $5.88 1/2. First support is seen at this week’s low of $5.57 1/2 and then at the July low of $5.52 3/4.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.75. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.25. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $5.58 3/4 and then at $5.61 1/2. First support is seen at this week’s low of $5.43 1/4 and then at the contract low of $5.38.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton fell 1 point to 68.24 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market remains range-bound, with neither the bulls nor the bears gaining much of an edge. That suggests more of the same for at least the near term. This week’s sell off in the U.S. dollar index has been slightly supportive for buying interest in cotton.
World Weather Inc. today said a trough of low pressure over the southeastern United States will sag into the northern Gulf during the latter part of this week and weekend, where some development is possible. A tropical disturbance may form, bringing heavy rain to the central Gulf coastal region during the latter part of this week and into the weekend. This feature may also help to restrict rain in the Delta and Tennessee River Basin, where temperatures will be warm to hot inducing quick drying
Cotton traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field amid sideways and choppy trading. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at the June high of 69.52 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the June low of 66.27 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 68.88 cents and then at last week’s high of 69.15 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 67.80 cents and then at the July low of 67.13 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 75% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 75% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.