Corn
Price action: July corn fell 5 3/4 cents to $4.38 1/4, a six-month low close.
Fundamental analysis: Corn futures eventually succumbed to technical pressure despite notable outside market support and short-covering efforts in wheat futures. Selling across the soy complex certainly played in bears’ favor, as did a sizable Brazilian production increase from AgRural, with new estimates suggesting production at 128.5 MMT, up from 124.8 MMT in April, due to higher yields in most states, but namely Mato Grosso. The consultancy reported safrinha harvest efforts are 1.3% complete.
However, weekly corn inspections continue to prove solid, with net inspections totaling 1.58 MMT, (62.0 million bu.) for the week ended May 29. Inspections rose 156,569 MT from the previous week, topping the pre-report range of 1.0 MMT of 1.535 MMT.
USDA will report corn-for-ethanol use this afternoon, which is expected to have totaled 434.4 million bu. in April, down 19.8 million bu. (4.4%) from March but up 11.8 million bu. (2.8%) from last year.
The weekly Crop Progress Report will also be released following the close, with analysts expecting corn plantings to be 93% complete on average, with 69% expected to be rated as “good” to “excellent.”
Technical analysis: July corn ended the session low range, juts shy of a six-month low close and below recent support at $4.41 1/2. Initial support will now serve at the May 13 low of $4.36 1/2, then at $4.35. Conversely, bulls will need to overcome resistance at the 20-, 10-, 200-, and 100-day moving averages, layered from $4.50 1/2 to $4.78 1/4 to regain momentum.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans closed 8 1/4 cents lower at $10.33 1/2 and near session lows. July meal fell $2.4 to $293.90. July bean oil sunk 61 points to 46.28 cents.
Fundamental analysis: The whole soybean complex saw selling pressure today, marking losses in four out of the last six trading sessions. July futures traded to the lowest mark since early April but have gained somewhat on November futures. After trading down to a dime last week, the July-November spread is trading up to 17 cents. A beneficial forecast for the Midwest over the next week likely weighed on soybeans today. A wet pattern will begin in the northwest portion of the Midwest today and will expand into much of the remainder of the Midwest throughout the rest of this week, says World Weather Inc. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected, keeping conditions wet in Indiana, Ohio and Kentucky where plantings are running a little behind schedule.
USDA will release their weekly Crop Progress Report this afternoon. A Bloomberg poll pegs plantings at 85% completed. This week, USDA will release their initial crop ratings for the 2025 soybean crop. Conditions are anticipated at 67% “good” to “excellent,” which would be one point below the ten-year average initial rating.
USDA will also release their monthly Oilseed Crushings Report this afternoon, which will detail crush use in April. Soybean crush is expected to total 202.0 million bu, according to a Bloomberg survey. That would be down 4.6 million bu. (2.2%) from March but up 24.4 million bu. (13.7%) from last year.
USDA reported soybean export inspections of 268,343 MT (9.9 million bu.) for the week ended May 29, up 68,321 MT from the previous week and within the pre-report range of 75,000 to 450,000 MT. Seeing inspections bounce back from the last couple of weeks was a good sign for bulls, but inspections were far from impressive.
Technical analysis: July soybeans continue to see persistent selling pressure. Bears continue to hold the near-term technical advantage and are looking to break prices below support at $10.30, which is reinforced by support at $10.25. Bulls are seeking to break prices above resistance at $10.40, which sees little backing until the 100-day moving average at $10.48 1/4.
July meal futures continued Friday’s rejection off 40-day moving average resistance today, confirming bears’ hold of the technical advantage. That mark stands as key resistance at $297.3, while additional resistance lies at $295.0 on the way. Support comes in at $293.7 then $292.5 on a continuation lower.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 65% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 65% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW wheat rose a nickel to $5.39, near mid-range. July HRW wheat rose 6 1/2 cents to $5.39 3/4, near mid-range and hit a five-week high early on. July spring wheat futures rose 1 3/4 cents to $56.27 1/4 .
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets today saw short covering, but gains were limited by weaker corn and soybean futures prices. Heightened geopolitical tensions provided for more of a risk-off trader mentality in the general marketplace that was negative for wheat prices. However, a solidly lower U.S. dollar index worked to offset the risk-off mentality to start the trading week.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country “too much rain is expected this week, which will exacerbate concerns of winter wheat grain quality declines and wet weather disease, especially in southeastern production areas where topsoil moisture is already excessive. In the west, the rain could be helpful, particularly for summer crops, due to subsoil moisture still being low, but lighter rainfall would be most ideal for the region right now.” Temperatures will also be unusually cool most often which will lead to lower than normal evaporation rates. In the northern Plains, a favorable mix of rain and sunshine is expected across most of the region in the next seven days. The only area with some concern for right now is northern Montana, where the soil continues to dry out which could lead to some crop stress. Greater rainfall is likely in northern Montana in the second week of the outlook. Frost is possible in the farthest western crop areas of Montana Tuesday morning.
USDA this morning reported U.S. wheat export inspections of 552,910 MT for the week ended May 29, down 10,059 MT from the previous week but near the upper end of pre-report expectations.
This afternoon’s USDA crop progress reports are expected to show U.S. winter wheat in good to excellent condition as of Sunday at 50% versus 50% in the same condition last week and 49% at the same time last year. Winter wheat harvested is seen at 3% complete versus 6% at the same time last year. Spring wheat planted is seen at 94% complete as of Sunday, compared to 87% last week and 94% at the same time last year. Spring wheat condition is seen at 47% good to excellent, compared to 45% last week and 74% at the same time last year.
Technical analysis: SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at the May high of $5.56 1/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.06 1/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.49 1/2 and then at $5.56 1/4. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.33 1/4 and then at last week’s low of $5.26 3/4.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at $5.75. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.00 1/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.50 1/2 and then at $5.60. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.31 3/4 and then at last week’s low of $5.23.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop production. You should be 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop production. You should be 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton rose 107 points to 66.13 cents, a three-week high close.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures scored short-covering gains to start the week, with strong outside market support as the U.S. dollar weakened and crude oil firmed. Rumors of a possible trade deal with India may have lent some support, though there has been no confirmation of such. Meanwhile, trade tensions with China continue to escalate, heightening global economic uncertainties.
USDA will release its weekly Crop Progress Report for the week ended June 1 following the close. Last week, plantings were estimated to be 52% complete, four points behind average.
World Weather Inc. reports West Texas shower and thunderstorm activity will be welcome during the next week, although the intensity has been reduced from that of last week. Greater rain will still be needed in some areas to support the best planting and emergence conditions in dryland areas. The forecaster notes a struggle for the dryland crop in the southwest is likely to continue. In the Delta, conditions continue to prove too wet and more rain is expected in the north over the next ten days, but the outlook is drier than it was last week.
Technical analysis: July cotton futures ended the session just above the 20-day moving average of 66.11 cents. Initial resistance will now stand at the 40-day moving average of 66.54 cents, then at the 100-day moving average of 67.61 cents. Meanwhile, support will serve at the 20- and 10-day moving averages, then at 64.97 cents, 64.60 cents and 64.15 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.